Op andere fora wordt gemeld (maar ik heb nog geen PB gevonden, laat staan kunnen lezen):
Last Friday, news agency Reuters reported that Ablynx has signed confidentiality agreements for its IL-6R rheumatoid arthritis (RA) candidate ALX-0061. No changes to valuation. BUY reiterated.
Our View:
Ablynx management made no secret of its ambitions to partner its IL-6R RA asset ALX-0061 with a big pharma player. The company reported early October interim data for a small group of RA patients (read-out after 12 weeks, for details see our morning note of 4 October 2012). The final read-out is at 24 weeks which will be available in 1Q13.
The news confirms our views that the interim data of ALX-0061 were strong both from an efficacy and safety perspective, and sufficient to attract the interest the from sizable pharma/biotech players. The company is lining up all interested parties such that once the 24 week data becomes available, final deal negotiations can be initiated.
We’ve stated before we are in favour of a so-called co-development deal in which Ablynx executes the remainder of the phase II program thereby using part of the upfront payment. As a reminder, net upfront payments for proof of concept phase II RA assets have ranged from $ 85-100m. Galapagos closed earlier this year a global deal with Abbott for its JAK1 compound and received $ 150m upfront, but around half of this payment will be used to fund the phase IIb studies. The most comparable benchmark deal for Ablynx’ ALX-0061 comes from Alder BioPharmaceuticals who outlicensed in 2009 its phase IIa ADL518 (IL-6) inhibitor to BMS for $ 85m in net upfront and $ 764m in development and sales milestones plus royalties on sales.
Today, the treatment paradigm for RA patients who fail methotrexate is to move to TNF-( products. However, we expect this multibillion dollar market to become more segmented as new product-classes, which modulate different targets, are gaining market share. Currently there is only one producton the market that modulates the IL-6 pathway (Roche’s Actemra). This product grew by 34% in 9M12. According to Roche, physicians are increasingly seeing Actemra as the preferred drug for monotherapy in RA following the positive results of a head to head trial that showed superiority against market leading TNF-( drug Humira (Abbott) in this setting. Two other IL-6 modulators are in phase III development: sarilumab (IL-6R) from Regeneron/Sanofi and Sirukumab from JNJ/GSK. In 3Q12, UCB put its olokizumab forsales. For more details on the RA market and more specifically the IL-6 modulating segment, we refer to our flash note of 18 September 2012.
Conclusion:
The signing of confidentiality agreements with future partners for ALX-0061 confirms our previous views on the potential of the drug. We reiterate our buy rating and € 9 target price. Ablynx is part of KBC Securities 2013 top pick list.