Outlook
Given the global economic uncertainty and the slowdown in China, current spot prices across AMG’s critical materials portfolio are significantly below the prices we experienced when we announced our initial guidance for 2023 in November 2022. The price of lithium carbonate in November 2022, the date of our $400 million EBITDA guidance, has now almost halved and our other relevant portfolio prices are down an average of 25%.
Therefore, we have changed our full year EBITDA guidance for 2023 from “exceeding $400 million in EBITDA” to “a range between $350 million to $380 million in EBITDA.” An EBITDA in this range represents the highest EBITDA in the history of AMG.
As previously disclosed, third quarter profitability will be negatively impacted by lower volumes associated with the spodumene expansion project. Volumes will recover in the fourth quarter as the project begins to ramp up.
Regarding our long-term guidance, we are extremely pleased with the advancement of our strategic projects. We are moving forward with our lithium concentrate expansion in Brazil. We’ve signed a mandate letter to fund the chemical upgrader in Brazil, and our lithium hydroxide refinery in Bitterfeld, Germany, is under construction, with commissioning for the first 20,000-ton module expected in the fourth quarter of 2023.
These transformational projects in lithium, our newly complete ferrovanadium spent catalyst recycling facility in Ohio, and the continued ramp-up in our AMG Critical Materials Technologies segment will drive increased volumes across our Clean Energy Materials segment and confirm our confidence in our long-term guidance. Our long-term guidance therefore remains unchanged at an EBITDA level of $650 million, or more, in 5 years, or earlier.