Petrobras ja heb ik ook wel eens naar gekeken. Lijkt te mooi om waar te zijn en dat zal het dan ook zijn :-) Onderstaand wat Chatgpt4 er van maakt. Persoonlijk denk ik dat je dan beter dan in Shell kan zitten en call opties er bij schrijven voor extra rendement als je toch niet wilt verkopen.
Shell (SHEL) vs. Petrobras (PBR) – Dividend & Investment Comparison
If you're choosing between Shell (SHEL) and Petrobras (PBR) for dividends, here’s how they stack up across key factors:
1. Dividend Yield & Stability
Shell (SHEL) – ~3.5% dividend yield
Has a long history of dividends but cut its dividend in 2020 during the oil crash (first cut since WWII).
More consistent and sustainable over the long term than Petrobras.
Petrobras (PBR) – ~17-18% dividend yield (varies)
Much higher yield, but payouts can fluctuate based on government policies.
Dividend sustainability is questionable due to high payout ratios and political risks.
?? Winner: Petrobras has a higher yield, but Shell is more stable.
2. Political & Governance Risks
Shell
A private company, less political influence.
Subject to environmental and regulatory risks but not government interference.
Petrobras
State-controlled, meaning the Brazilian government can change policies affecting dividends, pricing, and strategy.
Lava Jato corruption scandal in the past; governance risks remain.
?? Winner: Shell (far less political risk).
3. Financial Health & Debt
Shell
Strong balance sheet, lower debt.
Generates solid free cash flow.
Petrobras
Has improved its financials, but still carries higher debt than Shell.
Government interference can lead to inefficient capital allocation.
?? Winner: Shell (better financial stability).
4. Business Model & Growth Potential
Shell
More diversified with investments in renewable energy (wind, solar, hydrogen, EV charging).
Long-term strategy includes reducing carbon footprint.
Petrobras
Focused mostly on oil and gas (pre-salt offshore fields in Brazil).
Less diversified, highly dependent on crude oil prices.
?? Winner: Shell (more future-proof).
Final Verdict: Which Is Better for Dividends?
Factor Shell (SHEL) Petrobras (PBR)
Dividend Yield ~3.5% (lower, but stable) ~17-18% (very high, but risky)
Dividend Stability Strong long-term record, but cut in 2020 High but unreliable (political risks)
Political Risks Low High (state-controlled)
Financial Strength Strong Improving but weaker
Growth & Future Diversifying into renewables Mostly oil-focused
For a safer, long-term investment ? Shell ?
For maximum yield (but higher risk) ? Petrobras ??
If you’re comfortable with volatility and political risks, Petrobras offers a higher yield. But if you want more stability and long-term reliability, Shell is the better choice.