De outlook uit de cijfers:
Market Review & Outlook
Throughout the first nine months of 2024, the product tanker market sustained an extended period of high earnings, driven by strong cargo volumes and tonne-miles, as vessels rerouted from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope. In the fourth quarter, tanker rates came under pressure due to the increased cannibalization from the crude sector. A key driver of the market, daily loadings of Clean Petroleum Products (CPP), dropped in the beginning of Q4, mainly due to refinery maintenance and market inefficiencies. However, since December 2024 and in the beginning of 2025, CPP loadings on Handy to LR2 tankers have increased significantly. This was largely driven by reduced crude tanker cannibalization and higher export volumes from the US Gulf.
Ton-days for product tankers have also recovered after the dip in early Q4, while earnings have improved less profoundly. This is mainly due to subdued market sentiment, limited cross-hemisphere trading and shorter voyage lengths. Laden voyage lengths dropped by approximately 12%, mainly as a result of increased refinery output from the US Gulf, which has largely replaced Middle East output for European demand.
Global oil demand remained robust and rose seasonally in the fourth quarter, driven by a winter uptick in the Northern Hemisphere. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand increased by 1.4 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, as a result of a seasonal uptick, lower fuel prices and increased US petrochemical activities. For the full year 2024, global oil demand has increased by 0.87 million barrels per day from 2023, and a further increase of 1.10 million barrels per day is expected for 2025.
Recent OFAC sanctions announced in January 2025, targeting tankers carrying Russia, Iran and Venezuela oil, will have a significant impact on oil flows and tanker markets. China and India have announced they will exclude sanctioned tankers from imports, and we estimate this replacement barrels impact to be equivalent to 100 Suezmax vessels. We have noticed a decline in ton-miles in the sanctioned fleet since, and we expect this to decrease further in the coming months. This will increase the utilization and tonne-mile impact for existing crude tankers, which will result in a significant reduction in cannibalization in the clean market.
On the supply side, the product tanker orderbook-to-fleet ratio is approximately 22% as of February 2025. However, longer term fundamentals are still positive as a growing number of tankers over 20 years old are likely scrapping candidates. Many of these vessels, which operate with lower utilization and are frequently involved in “dark trades,” effectively reduce available fleet capacity. As a result, the overall supply balance is expected to remain manageable in the coming years.
Looking ahead, the product tanker market outlook is positive, supported by strong underlying demand and supply fundamentals. However, evolving geopolitical factors—including sanctions, tariffs, and disruptions in the Red Sea—will continue to influence trade flows and market dynamics.
Is op zich prima, maar tegelijk; het kan vriezen, het kan dooien.
De vorige hoge winsten kwamen dus door de problemen met het Suez kanaal en komen misschien niet zomaar terug als dat probleem is opgelost?
Ik vraag mij wel af wat de waarde van die NAV is. Het gaat immers om tankers, waar je natuurlijk elk jaar op moet afschrijven.
REITS moeten natuurlijk ook elk jaar flink investeren om de waarde op peil te houden, maar lijkt mij toch niet hetzelfde.