ABN AMRO heeft een zeer positief rapport over Brunel gepubliceerd.
Er wordt een explosieve toename van de winst met resp. 261 % FY04,
89% FY05 en 30% FY 06 ( zie onderstaande tabel. Tevens sluiten ze een
overname niet uit onder deze gunstige condities. Al met al zou de koers best eens tot over de 15 à 16 Eu kunnen gaan !
F O R E C A S T S & A S S U M P T I O N S
B R U N E L I N T E R N A T I O N A L 1 1 J A N U A R Y 2 0 0 5
EPS growth set to continue
At the publication of its 3Q04 trading update, Brunel raised its EPS guidance from flat
in 2H04 vs 1H04 to at around 50% higher EPS (excluding a Eu 1 milj liquidation charge
for a small loss-making Dutch entity). Effectively, the continuation of strong sales growth at Brunel Energy and Germany, but also a slightly better performance in the Netherlands, contributed to this. In our model, we consider the liquidation charge as
a one-off (after tax €0.65m) which we have included in the exceptionals.
Table 14 : Summary financials
(Eu Milj ) 2002A 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F
Net sales 204.7 245.6 301.3 354.6 396.5
Brunel Energy 71.6 119.2 158.5 195.0 220.3
Brunel Germany 41.7 45.5 56.0 64.4 70.8
Brunel NL 66.5 61.6 67.1 75.2 84.2
Brunel Energy growth y-o-y n/m 66.5% 33.0% 23.0% 13.0%
Brunel Germany growth y-o-y n/m 9.1% 23.0% 15.0% 10.0%
Brunel NL growth y-o-y n/m -7.4% 9.0% 12.0% 12.0%
EBIT - 8.9 2.8 11.1 20.4 26.7
Brunel Energy 3.2 5.0 7.5 10.7 12.8
Brunel Germany - 1.3 0.0 4.0 6.0 7.5
Brunel NL - 6.5 - 0.6 0.7 3.4 6.6
Brunel Energy margin 4.5% 4.2% 4.7% 5.5% 5.8%
Brunel Germany margin -3.1% 0.0% 7.1% 9.3% 10.6%
Brunel NL margin -9.8% -1.0% 1.0% 4.5% 7.8%
Net financial 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.9
EBT - 8.2 3.4 11.5 21.2 27.6
Taxes 2.3 -1.3 -4.0 -7.0 -9.1
Tax rate % 28.2% 38.4% 34.5% 33.0% 33.0%
Participations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net income -5.9 2.1 7.5 14.1 18.5
% change -394.8% -6.2% 261.5% 89.2% 30.1%
Net margin % -2.9% 0.8% 2.5% 4.0% 4.8%
Extraordinaries 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
Net incl. extras -5.9 2.1 6.5 14.1 18.5
Per share data 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E
Average # of shares 22.65 22.65 22.70 22.70 22.70
Fully diluted # of shs 22.65 22.65 22.70 22.70 22.70
EPS excl amortisation -0.26 0.11 0.41 0.62 0.81
% change -394.8% 13.2% 266.5% 53.7% 30.8%
Source: ABN AMRO forecasts, company data
EPS growth set to continue in 2005F and 2006F
In our view, the outlook for 2005 and 2006 appears very promising in terms of EPS
growth. Market expectations appear to underestimate the leverage effects at Brunel
GMBH and Brunel NL, while we expect double-digit sales growth for Brunel Energy in the coming two years. All in all, our forecast trends should result in an EPS rise of
some 53.7% for 2005 and 30.8% for 2006. This is based on the following reasons: EPS should rise by 54% and
30% in the coming two years