Hier is deel 3 van BioBoy Scout:
3 of 3
With regards to ARO-APOC3 and ARO-ANG3, it is Arrowhead's goal to still enter into a pivotal phase 2/3 study some time before the end of the year, and that means that we should see phase 1 data coming from these targets. Arrowhead needs to follow and analyze the patient data for quite a while and then it will need to work with the regulators in order to get their approval. Working with the regulators could take a while, as it took around 6 months for Arrowhead to work out the pivotal phase 2/3 trial for ARO-AAT.
I had mentioned to Bruce and Vince that I noticed a big difference in Arrowhead management's attitude on Analyst Day 2019 vs. Analyst Day 2018. In 2018 management was quite serious, rarely smiled, and pretty darn stiff, whereas in 2019 management was much more relaxed, jovial, much more vocal, transparent, and easier to talk to. Bruce's instant response to that was "we knew we had something."
With regards to milestones, it is unlikely that Arrowhead will get any from JNJ this year, as phase 3 will trigger the next milestone. With Amgen, another milestone payment will get triggered when phase 2 of AMG 890 starts.
With regards to ARO-HIF2 and ARO-HSD, Arrowhead isn't currently guiding that it will have data by the end of the year, but it's possible. I believe that it is still a bit too early for Arrowhead to guide on when this will happen and I'm guessing we'll know more by the middle of the year.
I then asked about Arrowhead's current share price and what they thought was the reason behind the slightly downward movement this last month. Vince explained that there are times of powerful moves followed by some consolidation and pull-back, and then the process tends to repeat itself. Vince believes that this type of pattern is a healthy way for the stock to consolidate before it continues to grow onto the next step.
That's pretty much it, it was a fast 40 minutes, and I wasn't able to get to everything. Some things I didn't have time to get to and cover with them:
1. when Arrowhead plans on delivering JNJ1 (as well as JNJ2 and JNJ3), as that should trigger a milestone payment;
2. commercialization efforts, including the new Chief Commercial Officer;
3. discussing new hires, including the new Chief Medical Officer, Chief Scientific Officer, and the new Board Member;
4. analyst coverage, as well as more details from the latest offering that took place;
5. thoughts on the midcap 400 and how that helps; and
6. thoughts on the Intellectual Property landscape, particularly as it relates to the revelations I made in my August 14th Equity Research Report.
With regards to attitude and body language during the meeting, it was clear that Arrowhead was not only very relaxed, but they were confident in what they were saying. Also, it helped that Vince and Bruce already knew me; Vince had even thanked me for the work and coverage I provide on Arrowhead and that it was greatly appreciated. There were lots of smiles and even a bit of joking around. Some of you may have noticed, I was also able to snag a photo with management later that same day after I finished a meeting with another company.
While most of the information Arrowhead provided me in the meeting may not be new, there are clearly a few nice new pieces of information to help explain the competitive landscape and how Arrowhead is making key decisions in a way to maximize shareholder value. This meeting also provided further confirmation that things are on track and proceeding very nicely. I believe that Arrowhead is doing a great job in establishing themselves as a quickly growing solid pharmaceutical development company, and it is the type of company big money managers should have in their portfolio on a long-term basis. I anticipate Arrowhead to have a fantastic year and I will plan on updating my price target shortly after Arrowhead officially begins dosing ARO-HSD and/or ARO-HIF2. Looking forward to your discussions and opinions.
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"Carpe diem. Seize the day, boys. Make your lives extraordinary." Dead Poets Society, 1989