hierbij de details van de Citigroup aanbeveling (zeker interessant aandeel, maar wel een slag riskanter dan een gewoon olie-aandeel: als de olieprijs fors zou zakken - ik zeg niet dat dat waarschijnlijk is - dan hangen ze):
Suncor (SU) is unique amongst the North American oil majors through a strategy that revolves mainly around its abundant oil sands resource. While this affords extended visibility to one of the most aggressive growth targets in the sector,
it comes with a materially higher cost structure than many conventional producers leaving earnings amongst the most exposed to changes in oil prices -- and a major beneficiary of rising long-term oil prices expectations. With little risk from exploration, execution and reliability lie at the core of the equity story. Here, performance has been checked by frequent downtime that has
denied earnings full leverage to the strong macro environment while also exposing SU's significant fixed cost structure. But reliability appears to be
recovering in 2006 reinforcing higher sustainable earnings expectations and driving sector leading EPS growth of around 90% over 2005. Looking ahead,
growth targets and the associated (considerable) capital requirement has been split into manageable chunks intended to reduce both management risk and
capital-commitment in what remains, still, a volatile price environment while avoiding the pitfalls of the past. To this end, hedging continues to play a strategic role in managing the balance sheet - and may do so again in future,
but eying floor prices of $50 per barrel!
At current levels, the shares look attractive vs historical earnings metrics; in absolute terms, we believe Suncor's DCF easily justifies our C$110 price target. We initiate coverage with
a Buy (1M, Med Risk).