Meeting with Michael Lebby
Yesterday on September 10th, I sat down with Michael Lebby for a chat. I greatly respect him for how much he is willing to communicate with shareholders.
I need to get a couple quick things out of the way.
First, we all know Lebby can be conservative and tight lipped in some ways. Yes, he has made grandiose statements but he’s generally always very careful with what he says. He remained that way during our meeting and of course did not share any information that would be considered inappropriate or violate any securities laws. Both Luke and Ian from MZ Group sat in on the meeting, too.
Second, Lebby knew what the share price was without looking at his phone. See…he DOES look at the share price despite that comment he made earlier this year that has been drastically taken out of context.
Third, there was a moment during our meeting when we started talking about investor sentiment, the declining share price, and investor expectations. He was very empathetic, and it was a side of him I had never seen before. He knows there are shareholders who have lost a lot of money. He knows the dilution increases as the price goes down. He acknowledged that the blame falls on his shoulders and shareholders could call for his removal if the share price falls further.
I mentioned to him that I’ve been following this company for 49% of my life, to be exact. He told me his time at LWLG is his longest at a single company. This company means so much to him, so when we were chatting about what I just mentioned above…it was somewhat a heartfelt moment.
He truly wants nothing but to make this company a huge success. He knows without question that this technology is going to commercialize on a grand scale. I believe him. It’s easy to believe him when you talk with him in person and even easier when you have a deep understanding of the history of EO polymers and the photonics industry. LWLG has made incredible progress over the last 5 years.
In no particular order, here are some highlights of the meeting:
LWLG modulators have achieved energy efficiency below 1 picojoule per bit. For context, that is 75% lower power consumption than an EO polymer competitor’s PROJECTED figures per a presentation they gave in April. This is also below the estimated range LWLG provided in past presentations.
On the energy consumption topic, I suggested to Lebby that he should provide estimated transceiver module power consumption in his presentations. Something that everyone can understand and something new to sink our teeth into. While he acknowledged my comment that EOP modulator-based transceivers could offer LPO-like power consumption levels, he will not provide estimated wattage figures until transceivers are complete. Depending on design, DSP used, etc…power consumption can vary so he doesn’t feel it is appropriate to put numbers out now. That is his general conservative attitude.
We discussed two recent LightCounting reports that show the “TFLN and other” category. The 2023 report was segmented by transceiver sales by material type and the 2024 report was PIC sales for transceivers by material type. The 2024 report shows “TFLN and other” as $750 million per year by 2029. Lebby mentioned that he knows the people at LightCounting well and we can expect to see EOP broken out as its own category in the future. My opinion is the change will be made once the LWLG PIC chip is formally revealed with a T1 partnership. That’s what everyone is waiting for. I believe 9 figure revenue in the coming years is a very real possibility and I expect a future LightCounting report to support that. We know LWLG’s business model has potential to provide higher than usual photonics industry margins and could resemble those of OLED/Universal Display. 9 figure revenue has made OLED worth billions also with a very attractive dividend.
Quick note. There will be a day when analysts start covering LWLG. Between the IPSR roadmap that Lebby has helped create and a LightCounting report that finally specifies EOP...the potential value is going to be crystal clear for any new eyes on the company.
4) Lebby stressed to me that the team LWLG now has in place is the best it has ever been. The two new Board hires are strategic.
Yvez LeMaitre - Lebby told me that the connections Yves brings to the table and his overall understanding of strategy within the photonics industry is immensely valuable. Lebby said something along the lines of, ‘you know I have access to many corner office executives in the industry…well Yvez has even more than I do’. Just because Yvez has deep experience with lasers does not mean LWLG has a laser issue. I brought that speculation up and Lebby thought it was ridiculous. By the way, Yves is pronounced “Eve”.