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mechanische handelssystemen altijd falen ?

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Omlaag ↓

[verwijderd] 18 december 2004 11:17

www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials...

[verwijderd] 18 december 2004 12:02

Hallo PCRS7

Leuk stukje.

Ik heb onderstaand even er even uitgelicht.(Maar er is natuurlijk meer)

So let’s look at what type of system can and will work in the markets. First of all one has to understand the difference between contrarian investing and investing based on Mass psychology. Contrarian investing is a very simple system as it basically involves taking a position against the masses. Mass psychology measures the frenzy periods or periods of extreme hate or disgust towards a specific sector or sectors, and then a position is taken during these extreme times. Furthermore it measures the level of euphoria in the camps of those that believe in the investment. In other words it will measure how many of the so-called contrarians are now extremely bullish and euphoric on a given sector. In most cases when a contrarian takes a position in a specific sector he is doing so as counter move to what the masses are doing. However the majority of the contrarians are still nervous and keep checking their positions rather frequently to make sure that at the very least the bottom is in. Once the sector starts to take off and produce returns they actually lose this nervousness and become very bullish; in other words they have now entered the euphoric phase. This is where mass psychology kicks in. At this point it will be time for the smart investor to bail out, you may not be selling at the top but you will be pretty close to it.

Mvg Peerke

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