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DeZwarteRidder 27 februari 2013 17:00

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quote:
DeZwarteRidder schreef op 27 februari 2013 16:58:
Extension to Maturity Date of Unsecured 14% Loan
MarketwirePress Release: Xcite Energy Limited – Wed, Jan 30, 2013 2:00 AM EST
XEL.L 102.83 0.08
ABERDEENSHIRE, UNITED KINGDOM--(Marketwire - Jan 30, 2013) -
30th January 2013 Xcite Energy Limited
("Xcite Energy" or the "Company")
Extension to Maturity Date of Unsecured 14% Loan Notes
Xcite Energy has extended the maturity date of the Unsecured 14% Loan Notes (the "Loan Notes") issued to a fund managed by West Face Capital Inc. ("West Face").
The maturity date of the Loan Notes, the terms of which were announced on 10 April 2012 and 8 August 2012, has been extended for a period of 275 days to 31 December 2013 which, subject to the approval of West Face, may be further extended for an additional 90 days to 31 March 2014.

Als deze lening niet wordt afgelost gaat Xcite failliet, ze zijn dus waarschijnlijk genoodzaakt om weer aandelen te gaan dumpen.

[verwijderd] 28 februari 2013 20:48

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Still gathering some information around Aberdeen as im heavily invested myself. However my gut feeling still remains that this it will be sold or farmed down. Still cant see how Xcite will remain the major stake holder.

Whats interesting for me is the extension to the loan, the only way they can pay this back is by production or by a T/O or farm-down. Im pretty positive production wont be happening this year due to the lack of available heavy duty jack-ups and the biggest problem of them all is the lack of helicopter slots.

Some of you maybe aware that +/- 26 helicopters have been taken out of the fleet since the last helicopter incident in the North Sea. This problem will not be resolved this year and therefore operators who do not have current helicopter slots are struggling to get any slots at all. I think 7 new helicopters are arriving at the end of the year to try and help the current problem but that will just ease the current pressure Bristows, bond etc are under. Therefore I would be very surprised if Xcite or even ADTI (if they use them from a drilling management point of view) can get there hands on any helicopter slots this year and may struggle next year.

Therefore how do they pay back the loan by Dec or March 2014 next year if they dont go into production?

The lack of recruitment, no committment to a rig, no platform tower being built yet for phase 1b. Unsure if they have ordered any dry X-tree's yet, which have a long lead time. Therefore with all this im still under the impression its being sold or farm down.

They have recruited a 3rd party consultancy company to finalise the concept design for the bentley development. This can be ongoing work regardless of a takeover occuring. With any takeover or farm-in/down you still have to continue on with the work that is required because if they didnt the project would slip for Xcite but also for the potential new operator.

The staff of Xcite have already been rewarded with shares and they will stick around for the pay off and potentially be used for the Bentley project by the new owners.

After we recieved the news that Xcite were going to carry out an EWT, my feeling was that the "For sale" sign was up and they were determined to prove its full valuation of the field so they couldnt sell it on the cheap. Unfortunately they diluted the shares further to achieve this goal but at the same time they still maintained 100% ownership, find more oil, buy more acerage and carry out further 3-D seismic.

Like any takeovers or Farm in/down it all takes time to get the agreements signed, for example the TAQA / BP harding deal was starting to become well known by Aug last year and the announcement wasnt made until November.

Still reckon Statoil will be involved heavily.....they are a well funded company (plus 67% state owned). Any major will inherit the tax allowance scheme for heavy oil and under new laws all the development costs can be set against the corporation tax of the field.Big saving!! However i would not be surprised if BP came in somehow......end of the day major operators only care about production and booking reserves. Right now a strong majority of majors around the world are seeing a fall in reserve levels. They are desperate for reserves and some cannot ignore the size of Bentley.

After all this nonsense ive been spouting....watch this now, farm-in announcement, rig booked etc etc.

Van iii Grtz Bara

[verwijderd] 1 maart 2013 07:59

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Howdy Xciters.

Hier een posting van Investingisatrickygame, ofwel Paul Rutherford, de drijvende kracht achter het iii Private Board, met relatief goede contacten in het verleden met RC en SK.

"The Decc has had the 90 day interim report post EWT as stated at last years AGM and within the timeframe stated. The report is not available to you and me and that protects Xcite's IP from the competition. That's a good thing for shareholders.

An amount of the data has been analysed since day one, enough for the interim report also and enough for Steve Kew to say that they know how to unlock 9 billion barrels in the North Sea (See Elaine Maslin interview of many months ago).

If only they know how to unlock those 9 billion barrels of NS heavy oil, as Steve Kew was quoted as saying, I would imagine the discussions taking place now are far more involved than any of us can imagine. This will have serious inplications for the Decc as well and I imagine they will be party to developments as well.

Without getting beyond ourselves, to think that a major uplift in the recovery factor is not going to be applied by TRACS seems unthinkable to me.

From what the company has said about the EWT, I think this has got bigger than even they imagined at this stage. Pure speculation on my part, but based on what the company has both stated and implied. This being the case, there could be major discussions impacting future developments and near term value with the Decc, individual members of the alliance, other interested oil companies, TRACS, the banks and of course, the company itself as to whether they wish to commit themselves going forward.

The share price clearly bares no relation to the new value to be declared. The only real question is do messrs Kew and Cole wish to realise their value now OR are they really going to stick around for longer term potential value and encounter the obstacles, both known and unknown to them over the coming years which may or may not, affect their ongoing commitment and appetite for Xcite Energy. "

Waiting for Groundhog Day.

Z. te T.

P.S.@ Bara: in jouw c/p hierboven, van ene Blunderboy als ik me goed herinner, wordt, oa, als reden voor geen productie in 2013 een tekort aan helicopters aangegeven. Dit werd door anderen overigens tegengesproken.
Ik geloof ook niet in productie dit jaar, hooguit voorbereidingen...

[verwijderd] 1 maart 2013 17:06

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Nogmaals howdy Xciters.

Tot 2x toe in de afgelopen dagen heb ik de uitgeschreven tekst van de CEO's gesproken message dd 14 Dec. jl hier proberen te plakken, edoch kreeg steeds een Error melding.
Ik denk dat de tekst te groot is en probeer het nu nog 1x door het middendoor te knippen.

Deel 1.

"2012 in Review and the way ahead
Friday, December 14, 2012

I'm Rupert Cole, the CEO of Xcite Energy.

As we conclude a very successful year in 2012, I'd like to take a few minutes to do two things.

To tell you about what we've achieved this year, and secondly, what our next steps are.

Clearly the highlight of our year was the production well test, which was a great success, and means that the Bentley field is now ready for development.

The test met it's principle objectives, and has greatly improved our understanding of the oil, gas and water behaviour and movement in the reservoir, which is the key to proving the long-term productivity of the field.

In short this means that we now know how to drill and complete the production wells, how the oil and water move in the reservoir, how to process it and flow it to the tanker.

We now know how to separate the water and oil , blend it and sell it.

As you know we sold about 150,000 barrels at a good price, so we know there's a market for Bentley crude.

We've taken Bentley much further than most independent oil companies would be able to do, and by doing so, we have materially de-risked the project.

I am very proud at what the team has achieved, having gone far beyond the scope of a conventional well test.

We now have a much better understanding of all aspects of the field development, from drilling, through to the route to market.

One of the most important results of the production test is the detailed understanding we now have of how the water behaves both inside, and when it's outside the reservoir.

We know there's a very large aquifer underneath Bentley, which appears to be directly connected to the sea, about 50 km away.

This is very good news.

This aquifer will provide the long-term pressure support needed to drain the oil from the reservoir, which gives confidence in the long-term productivity of the field.

The production test demonstrated how the oil and water behaved in the reservoir, which was very predictable, and better than we modeled.

This understanding of the water also has a major economic impact, as we can now accurately assess the process equipment needed for future development.

Everything we've done in this production test, especially our understanding of the water, has given us very valuable proprietary knowledge.

Good commercial sense dictates that we retain this knowledge, with a view to sharing it only with potential partners in due course, to maximise it's value to shareholders.

So now looking to the future.

Our next key milestones are the reserves update, field development plan and the reserves based lending facility.

Starting with the reserves update.

Over the course of the production test, we have gathered a vast amount of valuable data.

Once it's been interpreted, it will form the basis for updating the reservoir model, and the design of the Bentley production facilities.

This data, and the new seismic imaging that we bought earlier this year, will go into a new reserves assessment for the core area of the reservoir, in the form of a new competent person's report, which will again be provided by TRACS.

As we previously said, we are targeting the reserves update, for early in 2013.

In parallel with the new CPR, we're also updating the Field Development Plan.

Even though we see the fundamentals of the plan remaining largely unchanged from what was submitted to DECC in 2011, production test data, and our much better understanding of the field, have given us an opportunity to improve this still further.

The FDP also requires a lot of technical input, but it's in hand, it's going well, and we'll re-submit it to DECC when it's ready.

So as you probably know, both the CPR and the FDP are very important for our Reserves Based Lending Facility.

Deel 2 volgt.

Z. te T.

[verwijderd] 1 maart 2013 17:21

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So far so good.

Deel2:

To be absolutely clear, for a company at our stage, it's a fantastic achievement to have put this type of facility in place, and particularly with the quality of lenders that have supported us.

It does mean that Bentley has passed intense technical scrutiny, which is a massive external validation of the field.

As we've said before, the RBL becomes available on approval of the FDP by DECC, and it remains a very important part of our future financing plans.

So rest assured, the teams in Aberdeen and Guildford are working flat out to deliver the new CPR and update the FDP.

And no one should underestimate how much work is involved in completing these.

Before I finish on funding I'd like to talk a little bit about our plans for the farm-out process.

Our plan has always been to take the Bentley field as far as we have, whilst retaining 100% ownership.

So by validating the Bentley asset value with the recent production well test, we believe this is the right time to start to seriously consider a suitable partner in the field.

The farm-out is an important financing option for us, preparations are well under way, and we expect to start this in early 2013, when all the information is ready.

Finally, I'd like to talk a little bit about what is happening beyond these immediate priorities.

We now have a number of additional license areas and an Enhanced Oil Recovery Programme, all of which have the potential to contribute towards the future value of the company.

As you probably know, we have the prospective resources on Bentley, which are primarily in the south east of the reservoir.

We believe that these are important for the wider Bentley development scenario.

We are very pleased with the outcome of the recent 27th license round, these blocks are adjacent to the east and south of Bentley, and contain four significant prospects.

These are quite a bit deeper than Bentley, and therefor potentially lighter oil.

Our rationale here is that these prospects could be tied-back into Bentley, at some stage in the future.

It's early days yet, but they could be material to the overall Bentley value, and we'll update the market when we know more.

And perhaps best of all, we also see significant potential upside from using Enhanced Oil Recovery techniques on Bentley.

I don't want to bore you with the science, but basically we are looking at a method, which could slow the water movement, through the oil, to the wells, thereby materially improving total oil production.

It's called polymer flood, again it's early days, and we'll aim to test this as soon as possible, during the 1st phase of development.

Polymer flood is a well established technique in heavy oil fields, and we're greatly encouraged by the early data analysis from the production well test.

So to sum up, 2012 has been a fantastic year for Xcite.

I have a great team of people around me, who after a very busy year indeed, are still working very hard to complete all the things we need to do, to move Bentley forward.

The recent production well test was a great technical and commercial success, and was carried out in a safe and environmentally sound manner.

It has materially de-risked the Bentley field for development.

I'm very excited about the future, and greatly look forward to updating you, throughout 2013."

www.xcite-energy.com/media/video-cent...

Wel, een paar kreten die blijven hangen:
A lot of data, working hard, flat-out.
We'll resubmit the FDP to DECC when it's ready.
2012: A fantastic year.
2013: Very excited...

Enfin, nieuws in de pijpijn. Nu halverwege 'early 2013' en de koers, die het opnoemen de afgelopen maanden niet waard was, begint op te stomen naar 110p/CAD 1,70.
Vergeleken met Juli 2012 is dat ondertussen toch zo'n dikke 50% up.

Upwards & onwards.

Z. te T.

P.S. Die opwaartse koersbeweging zou je toch niet verwachten van een bedrijf dat elk moment failliet kan gaan, volgens duistere bronnen althans.
LOL.

[verwijderd] 1 maart 2013 22:13

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mss dat onderstaand bericht even wat krs effect heeft op xcite ?
-------------------------------------------------------------

Ithaca Energy Inc. has agreed to buy Valiant Petroleum PLC for £203-million ($308.2-million U.S.) in cash and stock, in a deal that will enable it to double its 2013 production forecast from oil fields in the North Sea.

Valiant shareholders would receive £3.07 in cash and 1.33 Ithaca shares for each Valiant share, Ithaca said in a statement.

[verwijderd] 2 maart 2013 00:04

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Hey Zandeman et al.,

Vandaag is de koers zelfs gesloten op 113,5 p, zonder enig relevant nieuws, blijkbaar hangt er wat in de lucht... Misschien heb je gelijk Haas! Maar ben ondertussen al gepokt en gemazeld door alle fluctuaties van XCite. Wat snel omhoog gaat, kan ook snel naar beneden en wat langzaam omhoog gaat kan ook snel naar beneden, hahaha. Ben wel benieuwd hoe het verder gaat met de koers volgende week (en daarna), of ze de winst van vandaag vast kunnen houden. Ik blijf rustig en vol vertrouwen zitten waar ik zit met XCite en wacht af wat er komen gaat.

Nog een tip Zandeman: duistere bronnen moet je nooit vertrouwen, gewoon negeren, ze zijn zwart, dus je ziet ze toch niet.

Fijn weekend allen!
Grtz Bara

[verwijderd] 2 maart 2013 07:41

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Hey Haas.
Long time no hear.

Bijgaande link naar een artikel van Proactive Investors suggereert ook een positieve impact op de koersen van AIM oil/gascompanies in de UK Noordzee van de overname van Valiant door Ithaca.
Premie van 35% is betaald op de koers van 28 Feb.
31 Dec. 2012 had Valiant, die een beetje olie produceert, 19mmbbls aan reserves.
Een poster op LSE berekende een overnameprijs van ca.14$/b reserves.

Xel's sterkste koersstijging kwam pas in het laatste handelsuur, suggererend dat er komende week nieuws uit de pijplijn plopt.

Wait & see.
Pr. weekend allen.

Z. te T.

[verwijderd] 2 maart 2013 07:43

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Oops.
Hier de link.

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companie...

[verwijderd] 3 maart 2013 16:01

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Howdy Xciters op deze Zondag de derde Maart.
Medio early 2013 zo te zeggen.

Een andere poster op iii, ene Sky-Ward, heeft de Ithaca/Valiant deal ook onder de loep genomen en komt tot de volgende konklusies:

"My analysis:

Deal:
19 MM 2P reserves
9,000 BOEPD production,
500 MM$ UK Tax allowances,
23 MM$ NOR Tax Refund in accounts receivable,
150 MM $ long term debt,
Consideration Paid by Ithaca: 305 MM $

Point of view of VPP shareholder:

He gets the equivalent of $ ~16 per barrel of 2P reserves. Looks good. I will be extremely happy if I get the same for my XEL investment.

Point of view of Ithaca:

Consideration Paid of $ 305 MM and long term debt of $ 150 MM will be offset by expected total tax savings of $ 333 MM yielding a cost of $ 6.43 per barrel for the 2P reserves. Looks good too.

Bottom line: The VPP shareholders leave the tax savings on the table if they agree to the deal."

Tsja, als Xcite een overnamedeal krijgt aangeboden van $16/b dan is dat niet verkeerd.
Huidige 116mmbl in de core only X16$/295m (huidige)aandelen = $6,29/aandeel.
Dat is aan de magere kant uiteraard, want er is veel meer dan de core only.

Ah, we wachten momenteel natuurlijk ook op een upgrade van de core reserves agv fase 1A.
*160mmbl x 16$/320m aandelen (volledig verwaterd) = 8$/aandeel.
*200mmbl x 16$/320m aandelen = 10$/aandeel.

Kijk, kom ik toch weer op getallen die ik medio 2012 ook al eens noemde.
Fundamentals, fundamentals.

Realiteit: om die waarden te realiseren moet er eerst ook echt flink geproduceerd worden. En daar poen voor hebben en toestemming van DECC.
Agv fam-out wordt de 100% eigendom natuurlijk ook minder, maar levert wel poen op... Xcite heeft overigens 800m$,kan ook GBP wezen, tax allowance.

Verder is Bentley natuurlijk veel groter dan de core only en hebben ze daarnaast ook de licenties uit de 26e/27e rondes.

Plus hullies Intellectual Property.

Upsides.

Ah wel, genoeg gespekuleerd!

Wel, ik blijf benieuwd naar de rest van 'early 2013' en het bijbehorende nieuws. Groundbreaking naar mijn verwachting.

Z. te T.
100% XEL.
Too much of the good?

P.S. Las eerder deze week een artikel nav Warren Buffett's Berkshire 2012 resultaten.
Over de 4 core holdings Coke, IBM, Citibank en nog eentje zei hij: Tsja behoorlijk overweight and too much of the good.
But to quote Mae West: too much of the good is fantastic.:-)
Voor de jeugdigen onder de lezers: Mae West is een inmiddels overleden Hollywood legende met een triple D Cup.

[verwijderd] 17 maart 2013 09:33

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Howdy Xciters.

Op deze Zondag de 17e Maart 2013.
In het begin van de 2e helft van early 2013, zo te zeggen....

Er kwam waarachtig een persbericht van Xcite. Geen breaking nieuws nog.

De jaarvergadering wordt op 16 Mei as in Parijs gehouden in een Mercure hotel vlakbij Gare du Nord.
Kunnen we zo met de Thalys vanuit Den Haag naar toe.
Ik weet overigens niet of ik dan wel in Nland ben.
De Eurostar trein vanuit London eindigt ook op de Gare du Nord, dus er komen veel Britten naar verluid.

Verder kwam op Donderdag de 14e in een paar Britse kranten het gerucht dat Statoil voor 200p Xcite zou willen overnemen.
Het gerucht werd afgedaan als bogus en de koers reageerde nadien negatief, ipv omhoog te jumpen, hetgeen je zou verwachten als het gerucht op waarheid zou (kunnen) berusten.
Konsensus op de BB's: bod zou onrealistisch laag zijn en onakseptabel voor de BoD. Om over de overige aandeelhouders, U en ik, nog maar niet te spreken...

In de media veel nieuws tav de nieuwe 'boomtimes' in de North Sea offshore, mede dank zij de hoge olieprijs, ca. 110$ voor Brent, terugloop van UK produktie en dus taxpegels, en derhalve de nieuwe Britse taxrules. Dit zal verder leiden tot veel investering , inkl. merger and acquisition aktiviteit.
Interessant artikel in dit kader,ook nav overname Valiant door Ithaca,
volgt hieronder.

Tempus: Tax changes fuel the oil boom

Martin Waller Tempus The Times

Published at 12:01AM, March 16 2013

The takeover by Ithaca Energy of Valiant Petroleum now looks likely to go ahead, with completion some time next month. This is good news for both sets of shareholders and for North Sea oil and gas extraction as a whole.

There are any number of reasons why the North Sea has become interesting again. Other oil and gas hot spots are becoming crowded — this week, the state-run China National Petroleum Corporation made a $4.2 billion grab on some assets off Mozambique. The geology of the North Sea and the rest of the continental shelf is well known, which reduces the risk. And so far this year the oil price has averaged well above $110 a barrel for Brent crude, with no reason why it should dip below this.
The other compelling reason for a new North Sea boom is last year’s tax changes, which are designed to encourage the exploitation of smaller or older fields. So companies such as Ithaca and Valiant have a tax window that allows them to move ahead with such assets. Analysts estimate that if the merger goes ahead, the combined entity will have tax losses in excess of $900 million.

This will mean the company does not have to pay any tax on existing production until 2016, while if further spending on exploitation of existing assets takes place, which it certainly will, that date moves back further.

Ithaca, unchanged at 118¼p, was on the auction block early last year, but management took the view, rightly, that the price on the table did not reflect the promise of its main asset, the Greater Stella Area, which starts production next year. Ithaca is the operator and has brought in Petrofac to take the field to production.

Valiant was also up for sale. The deal was being opposed by a couple of American hedge funds, who wanted Ithaca to be sold, but they gave up this week. The combined group will concentrate on production and the development of proven reserves — Valiant’s exploration assets will probably be sold, lessening the risk profile.

Add Ithaca’s current production, Valiant’s and the projected numbers from Greater Stella and you reach 25,000 barrels per day. EnQuest, the only other sizeable pure North Sea producer, is running at about this level, so the deal kicks Ithaca into a higher league.

The assumption is that once the deal is complete and Greater Stella is up and running, the combined group will again attract the attention of a buyer, not least for those tax advantages. Other smaller North Sea operators should follow suit.

End.

Enfin, nadat Xcite vanaf 2007 tot 2012 volop tegenwind had in verkrijgen van financiering vanwege financiele/economische shitklimaten en bange, risiko mijdende, banken heeft Xcite het toch klaargespeeld medio 2012 de 155m$ RBL te regelen...
Zowaar een prestatie van formaat, zoals RC ook zelf borstklopt.
Moet nog wel geratificeerd worden en daar is Field Development Plan goedkeuring door DECC voor nodig, doch dat lijkt een formaliteit. Hoewel??? Zie wat eind 2011 geschiedde!

In de huidige kruciale fase tav het bepalen van het beste pad voorwaarts in het kreeeren van shareholder's value krijgt Xcite nu zowaar de wind in de rug, mede dankzij hun tax break voor heavy oil voor 800m GBP (ik heb het nu gecheckt). Dit betekent bij 32% belastingverplichting op produktie in de eerste 5 jaren, dat 256m GBP/400m$ niet hoeft te worden afgedragen...
Mooi, dat is, gedeeld door 320m aandelen, alleen al 80p aandeelwaarde.

Brengt me op de, dus nog steeds pathetisch lage, koers, momenteel 121p/CAD1,85.
Wel een stijging van 20% in de laatste 3 weken, na eeuwen (gevoelsmatig dan) rond de 100p te hebben gefladderd.

Dadelijk meer met een plaatje.

Z. te T.

[verwijderd] 17 maart 2013 10:02

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Hier een link naar een TA plaatje van Trendfriend op iii.

Titel: The good, bad and ugly, a la Sergio Leone's spagetti westerns uit de zestiger/zeventiger jaren, vorige eeuw al weer.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreensho...

De koers fietst lekker omhoog in een redelijk steil koerskanaaltje, dat medio/eind Februari ontstond.

Wat mij betreft mag de koers daarin voorlopig doorgaan, zonder breaking news.
Dit laatste zal er zeker voor medio Mei, de jaarvergadering, zijn.
Zoniet, dan vallen er vast en zeker klappen daar bij het Gare du Nord.:-)

Ik blijf 100% long XEL.

Prettige Zondag en verder.

Z. te T.

[verwijderd] 18 maart 2013 19:59

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Xciting times zijn het (nog) niet Zandeman, koers vandaag klein dalletje naar beneden gefietst. Maar "ons" aandeel kennende spurt hij zo meteen de Alpen op, met of zonder doping ;-) Al heb je in de Alpen natuurlijk ook stukjes dat je daalt voordat je verder klimt. Zonder breaking news zal het nog wel ff schommelen zijn. We laten ons rustig in slaap schommelen, totdat de grote klap komt. BOOOOM, zoals je op het iii forum wel regelmatig ziet, maar dat zijn dan meestal losse flodders :-)

We wachten rustig af, zijn we ondertussen al aan gewend....

Fijne week iedereen!
Grtz Bara

[verwijderd] 26 maart 2013 19:27

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Howdy do Xciters?

Personally I am enormously xcited what I can achieve in 2013, being a shareholder of Xcite Energy.

Tsja, het loopt tegen Pasen en Xcite heeft al een eitje gelegd.
Eigenlijk het eitje van vorig jaar, hullies 2012 Jaarverslag.
Op zich een non-event,het meeste is al bekend, maar toch..

Op financieel gebied, per 31 December vorig jaar:
*Total net assets GBP 252m,
*waarvan 25,6m GBP cash.
En momenteel heeft Xcite dan een Marcetcap van 325 GBP.
Hhhmmmwww, tikje ondergewaardeerd zou ik zeggen.

Enfin, een aantal statements die de aandacht trokken:
*Gebaseerd op de resultaten van fase 1A, probeert men de RBL, momenteel 155$, te vergroten.
Waardoor een evt. farm-out een kleiner percentage hoeft te zijn, denk ik dan. Goed voor Xcite en de aandeelhouders!

*Quote:

"The addition to the Group portfolio of licences over Blocks 9/4a, 9/8b and 9/9h through the 27th Licencing Round provides additional optionality over exploration and appraisal programmes during the remainder of 2013, but this will be dependent upon the availability of suitable drilling rigs and appropriate funding. The prospects contained in these licences have the potential to add significant value to the wider Bentley area."

.......................................................................
Hier kommentaar van Chappie10 op iii:
"Where's the money coming from to EVEN THINK about any exploration and appraisal before we have 1B sorted?

My guess is that we already have got it sorted!"

Tsja, 1B heeft altijd prioriteit gehad over appraisal/exploration, dus wie weet.

Rupert Cole zegt verder:
"I'm enormously excited about what we can achieve in 2013 as we remain on track for delivery of the new CPR in the early part of the year."

Ik heb al heel wat CEO's kreten in persberichten gelezen, zoals satisfied, optimistic, excited, very excited, extremely excited, maar enormously excited heb ik niet eerder gezien!
Dat belooft dus wat, imho.
Nu begrijpt U ook mijn aanhef.

De early part of the year blijft in mijn optiek t/m April.
We zullen zien.
Er gebeurt ondertussen heel veel achter de schermen.

De koers heeft upside zei ik al eerder, maar nu zeg ik: enormous upside.

Groeten uit Tland.
Z.

P.S.
@ Bara.
Tsja, beurskoersen zijn net wielerkoersen.
Ups en downs.
"Langs berg en dal klinkt hoorngeschal' werd er vroeger, volgens Jan Pierewiet althans, veel gezongen.
Wel, ik heb vandaag in Xcites nieuwsbericht hoorngeschal gelezen en ben het mee gaan neurien.
Hopelijk eindigen de volgende koersetappes op steeds hogere bergen met kleine dalletjes ertussen en eindigt de Xcite Tour op een berg van de 'hors categorie'.
Ik teken voor dit scenario.

Was getekend,
Z. te T.

[verwijderd] 8 april 2013 11:39

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Howdy Xciters.

Stetson time!
Een opwindend dagje in het prille leven van Xcite Energy.
Een week na Pasen is er een reuze ei uitgeperst. Tsja het heeft wat moeite gekost.:-)

Het nieuwe Reserves Report geeft nu aan dat de 1P reserves verdubbeld zijn tot 198 mmbbls en de 2P meer dan verdubbeld tot 250 mmbbls en nog wat prospective spul in en buiten Bentley.
Voorwaar een 'enormous' upgrade.
Tevens is op basis van de nieuwe seismiek duidelijk dat Bentley South/East en de 'Core' tot 1 en hetzelfde reservoir behoren.
En, eeeh, er is nog geen EOR in beschouwing genomen.

Wel, ik ben buitengemeen tevreden en kom later terug met meer 'Analyse'.

Hier nog iets uit de pers, nav een telefonisch interview met de CEO.

"Interesting quotes....

www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-08/xci...

“This represents one of the largest undeveloped fields in the U.K.,” Chief Executive Officer Rupert Cole said in a telephone interview. “It opens a lot of doors and we expect to have significant farm out interest.”

The company doesn’t expect to sell a large stake in the field, Cole said. The Bentley field will be able to produce about 45,000 barrels a day in its first phase and 57,000 barrels a day in its second phase, the company said."

Ze zijn in mijn optiek al langer in gesprek met potentiele partners, maar nu is onafhankelijk van Xcite duidelijk gebleken wat de enorme potentie van Bentley en omstreken inhoudt en dat van 'partners' ook de waardering wordt verwacht mee te, mogen, doen.

Upside!
Ben blij 100% aandeelhouder te zijn.
Het Development Plan is helemaal op de schop gegaan.
Later meer.

Z.te T.

P.S.
You can't stop what's coming.

[verwijderd] 8 april 2013 20:06

0

Gefeliciteerd Zandeman en andere Xciters!!! Even snelle reactie. Heeft allemaal inderdaad wat tijd gekost, maar nu hebben we ook wat ;-) Ben benieuwd naar je analyse Z. en wat de timetable voor de komende tijd is.

Grtz Bara

[verwijderd] 8 april 2013 21:56

0

Ha Bara & andere Xciters.

Idd, ook gefeliciteerd.
Wat een upgrade!

Dubbele reserves dan eerder gedacht, maar ook:
NPV10 2,2 miljard $, tov eerder 1,4 miljard $, een stijging van 'slechts' 55%.
Hoe kan dit?
Hogere produktiekosten? Langere produktie, 35 jaar, tov 20/25 jaar?
Nog veel vragen onbeantwoord.

Anyway: 700m$ nodig voor start produktie in H2 2015.
Stel: 155m$ huidige RBL kan worden verdubbeld, dan is nog 400m$ financiering nodig. Gebaseerd op 10$/b in de grond moet er dan 40m bbls worden out gefarmed (jeez Engelse taal is een stuk makkelijker in de olie/gaswereld), dat is 40/250= 16% farm out. Een beperkt percentage, zoals Cole zegt.

Wel, een 20 man sterk olieklubje op een bewezen en gegroeid oliefantveld zegt me: Ze doen het niet met een 16% partner, maar met een grotere farm out met 1 of meerdere partners en een take over in een later stadium, dit jaar of volgend jaar , komt steeds meer in beeld.
IMHO, natuurlijk.

Hier nog een aansprekend stukje van de ons bekende Fowlertheprowler:

"Of course everyone will have their own take on news today. I am delighted, However, I'm sensing growing fear and scepticism over increased costs of production ($700 million now) and reduced NPV per barrel which on headline figures appears to have almost halved.

Both observations are fair and valid ones, but I would point to two factors to counteract them:

1 - This increased reserves field factors in all of Bentley field and this means a big dilution and hike to recovery costs as further investigation is needed in some of the areas which could (not guaranteed) reveal greater reserves still...

2 - and most crucially....as RC is at pains to point out in RNS EOR is still to be factored in
'We shall now continue to move the project forward with on-going studies into the potential for enhanced oil recovery, which has yet to be factored into the reserves assessment. There is also further scope for field optimisation in order to accelerate delivery of the Contingent Resources, as well as the potential for exploration barrels from our Prospective Resources'.

If EOR could be add 50% taking it into 30's we could see cost of recoverable oil back to figures that would scare less and wow more!

Personally, I think a large Farm out is now inevitable when you look at sheer scale of project now being described and it surely has to involve a major . This alone should underpin price in short term and I'd be disappointed if SP returns to 1.10 range, although I accept and indeed continue to maintain that only when the finance issue is put to bed will the sp rerate properly .

I noticed resistance again at 124p area ,but I hope this will fall this week . Patience still the key here, but after today we are much closer to a more sustained and genuine sp rerating ."

Wel, dat was het voor vandaag, wat mij betreft.
Bedtijd.

Later meer.

Z. te T.
Happy XEL investeerder.
Hoe de story zich ook moge ontvouwen.
Enormous upside.

[verwijderd] 9 april 2013 08:55

0

Moguh Xciters.

Hier een artikel uit Wall Street Journal van hedenmorgen, gebaseerd op een teleinterview met Cole gisteren.

Dow Jones Newswires

April 08, 2013 11:06 ET (15:06 GMT)

04/08/2013 17:06:46 - Xcite Energy Looks for Funding, Partner for Bentley Field
By Iain Packham

LONDON--Oil company Xcite Energy Ltd. (XEL.LN) wants to extend its loan facility that uses oil as collateral and bring in a partner to fund the next phase of development at its Bentley heavy oil field in the U.K. North Sea, its Chief Executive Rupert Cole said Monday.

The company plans to extend the facility to cope with the increased funding needed for a bigger production plan, following an upgrade to the field's oil reserve estimate. Even with a larger loan facility, however, the company will still need to bring in a partner to make up the shortfall in development costs.

Xcite's current oil reserve-based lending, or RBL, facility is $155 million and based on a previous production estimate of 22 million barrels of oil for the first phase of development.

"The first phase development will now be around 100 million barrels 1P [proved reserves], probably a bit north of that, so the scaling up of the capacity will be significant," Mr. Cole told Dow Jones Newswires in a telephone interview.

He noted, however, that the loan increase would be constrained by how much banks are prepared to lend, possibly providing only 60% to 70% of the $700 million needed to get the project to a point where the cash flow is positive. Xcite will therefore have to meet the funding gap by attracting a partner to the project, he said.

The CEO hopes the Bentley field will see first oil in the second half of 2015, following the signing of increased facilities and a partner.

"From the time we're ready to go and start, which is when we have the RBL in place, the... partner etc., there's probably a two-year lead time to first oil," Mr. Cole said.

Xcite's exploration and appraisal work has grown the Bentley field's oil reserves, and therefore its value, to discovered resources of 909 million stock tank barrels, from the 550 million stock tank barrels reported in February 2012.

The CEO now expects to be able to get the best possible value from a partner for a stake in the project.

"We've bought this asset to the point of maximum value, now is the right time to farm it down [sell a stake], and I think given the scale of what we have now... it is a strategically important asset in the North Sea and I believe we'll get some strong interest from a farm out partner," Mr. Cole said.

Mr. Cole expects the search for a partner to take about six months.

At 1500 GMT, shares +9.75 pence, or 8.9% at 118.75 pence, in a slightly higher AIM index--up 0.6%.

OK, dus de RBL zou groter dan 300m$ kunnen zijn, dus minder outfarmen nodig.

Ik kan me ook voorstellen dat de nieuwe partner de kosten voor exploratieboringen in de nieuwe concessies, of appraisal's in Bentley voor hun rekening gaan nemen.
In het 2012 jaarverslag duidde Cole hier al op, uit te voeren in 2013, mits poen en een rig beschikbaar....
Enfin, als een partner vinden/bepalen nog 6 maanden duurt, zal dit boorwerk wel 2014 worden.

Genoeg gespekuleerd.
Later meer, wellicht.

Oh, tot slot: Bentley blijft commercieel zolang de olieprijs boven 45$/b blijft. Da's geen punt me dunkt!

Z. te T.

[verwijderd] 9 april 2013 10:33

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Sellhigh, 1 van mijn favoriete, realistische, posters op LSE schreef dit:

"Just seen this posted on iii and I tend to agree with it:

"An updated Field Development Plan will be submitted to the DECC in the coming months, which will reflect the results of the successful pre-production well test and the improvement in the balance between the two development phases."

from my experience this tells me they are in talks with a partner already, and they will announce the farm out partner, sooner rather than later, because they will include the farm out partner in the FDP prior to submitting to DECC. in my mind this is all going to happen rather quickly from here on in....."

Ik ben het er helemaal mee eens.

Het originele, in elkaar geflanste FDP, fase 1B, met een lightweight,unmanned platform was bedoeld als uitgangspunt om op eigen kracht door te kunnen gaan. Met beperkte financien eerst beperkt produceren en dan de opbrengst in een groter platform investeren in fase 2, 3 jaar later.

Nu, met toegenomen reserves en een farm-in partner, met diepe zakken,in gedachte, is het nieuwe concept waarschijnlijk op termijn toch ekonomischer.
Eind vorig jaar werd bekend dat Xcite een adviesklub had ingehuurd (EPC?) om het optimum toekomstige pad uit te vogelen, wellicht is dit het resultaat.

Het lijkt idd zinvol eerst de partner(s) mee te laten beslissen in het Field Development Plan, voordat het naar DECC gaat.
De partners kunnen immers het hele zooitje willen hebben! Vroeger of later.

Nou, als de prijs maar OK is.
5/6 GBP/aandeel? Dit jaar nog?
Hup, daar gaan de mijne.:-)

Z. te T.

[verwijderd] 10 april 2013 16:31

0

Howdy do Xciters?

Still excited, or a little bit less?

This is what Sellhigh says on LSE:

"Whoever buys Bentley will be looking at 424mmbl @ after tax profits of at least £27.6 per barrel.
That’s $11.7 billion profit – I think they will get at least $2.2 billion for it. (500p per share)
(P2 250mmbl, CR 46mmbl, EOR 128mmbl Total 424mmbl)
“net revenue after income taxes (ie net cash flow generated) of approximately $6.9 billion”, ($27.6 profit per barrel)"

Many posters on the BB's said: The RNS and RAR are more aimed @ potential partners than @ the stockmarket.
Xcite have put themselves in the shopwindows with the sign: Look what we've got. And we are working on EOR tests to increase the potential."

Well, Sellhigh did the calculations.

OK, that's one side of the coin: an enormous amount of oil in Bentley and environments.

The other side of the coin is: what does the stockmarket think of it?
Hhhhmmmww: not enormously xcited. Yet.
Well, the market knew they were sitting on an elephant field, the elephant is now twice as big.
OK, but also the money needed to tap the oil from the elephant has doubled from 350m$ to 700m$.
The marketcap of the company is currently: 292x1,15= 336m GBP x1,55=520m$.

So, that's a lot of money. For a minnow oil company.
Institutional investors, who currently have no interest in Xcite are waiting to see the money needed to tap all this oil on the table.

Well, that's my conclusion for the time being.
The assetbase has more than doubled, the shareprice is up about 5% @ 115p.

You could say the market already factored the increase in reserves in the shareprice.
In August SP was 73p approx. 115p/73 is + 57%.
In December SP was 83 approx. 115p/83 is +39%.

The question now arises: what is going to move the SP to levels that would allow takeover @ 5-6GBP.
Let's say that in the market acquisitions are done @ a 50% premium on the going shareprice, than a SP of 3,5-4GBP is needed firstly.

Well, quite a long way to go.

Wait @ see.

I remain very confident, by the way.
Fundamentals will pay of.

The Stetson man.

Z. te T.

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