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voda 20 november 2019 16:19

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Indian Per Capita Stainless Steel Consumption Touches 2.5 KG

Union Minister of state for steel Minister of State for Steel Faggan Singh Kulaste has urged the stainless steel industry to increase production and make India a global manufacturing hub in the coming years. The Minister Mr Kulaste while inaugurating the 30th Anniversary conference of Indian Stainless Steel Development Association said that “At present with total production of 3.74 Million tonnes of stainless steel during the year 2018-19 India is the second largest producer of stainless steel. Presently China is the world’s largest stainless steel producer. Per capita consumption of stainless steel in India has reached 2.5 kg-mark. In 2010, the per capita consumption of steel was 1.2 kg.”

Mr Kulaste added that "Growth rate of stainless steel demand in India is to the tune of 6-7 per cent CAGR, which is also among the highest in the world, as stainless steel demand is directly linked to economic growth. Stainless steel not only has a low life cycle cost, but also improves overall quality of life.”

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 26 november 2019 12:58

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Europese Commissie opent onderzoek naar dumpen Chinees roestvrij staal

FONDS KOERS VERSCHIL VERSCHIL % BEURS
Aperam
27,61 -0,15 -0,54 % Euronext Amsterdam

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De Europese Commissie heeft besloten om een onderzoek te starten omdat Chinees roestvrij staal mogelijk toch is gedumpt, ondanks Europese antidumpingmaatregelen. Dit stond dinsdag vermeld in het officiële publicatieblad van de Europese Unie.

Volgens de Commissie heeft het voldoende bewijsmateriaal om aan te tonen dat Chinese producenten kleine aanpassingen hebben gedaan aan hun producten om zo de antidumpingmaatregelen te omzeilen.

Europa heeft sinds februari 2018 maatregelen tegen Chinees staal ingevoerd.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.

[verwijderd] 26 november 2019 13:53

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Eigenlijk is hele dumping oorlog een woordspeling. Als je iets verkoopt dat lager is dan je concurrent, dan noemen ze het dumpen. Niet omdat het goedkoper is, maar het is dumpen omdat overheid subsidieert en ze verzinnen allerlei redenen.
Wij subsidiëren de italianen, grieken, spanjaarden met zero aan rente. Is dat ook niet dumpen, zodat deze landen kunnen blijven produceren.

Goh, vraag mij dan af wie nu wel eerlijk is in de handel. ??

Begrijp dat je bedrijven wil beschermen, maar als je kiest voor open grenzen, vrije handel.. dan moet je de woordspeling van "dumpen" toch niet meer gebruiken of je wilt stoppen met globalisering, vrije markt...

En dat willen wij weer niet, want geld moet rollen... maar is het niet logisch dat de Chinezen verkopen onder de kostprijs, als zij goedkoper kunnen produceren.

Zijn Europese bedrijven niet slachtoffer van hun eigen ontwikkeling ??? en eigenlijk te duur zijn.

voda 26 november 2019 14:41

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EU Launches Complaint against Indonesia over Nickel Ore Export Ban

European Union launched a complaint at the World Trade Organization against Indonesia’s curbs on exporting nickel and other raw materials. The European Commission said the restrictions unfairly limited EU producer’s access to nickel ore in particular, as well as to scraps, coal and coke, iron ore and chromium. The Commission’s complaint says the measures are part of a plan to develop Indonesia’s stainless steel industry. It also said that the manufacturing methods used in Indonesia produce up to seven times more carbon dioxide than the processes used in Europe. EUROFER said that “The risk is that artificially cheap, highly polluting steel displaces cleaner steels from both domestic EU producers and traditional trade partners.”

Indonesia is the world’s largest miner of nickel ore and is set to ban exports for two years from 2020.

Source : Reuters

voda 26 november 2019 15:08

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Paris Court Approves New Caledonia Nickel Ore Export Decisions

French administrative court has thrown out a challenge to two decisions in New Caledonia to approve additional nickel exports. The French court has ruled that the new policy is in order. Northern Province president Mr Paul Neaoutyine claimed in 2015 that the mining code was being breached with the sale of low grade nickel ore to what he called non-traditional clients. His move followed the approval to sell such ore to China and Japan to counter a decline in ore exports to Australia.

Two of the main parties, the anti-independence Caledonian Together Party as well as the pro-independence Palika, have said such exports would contribute to a further erosion of the nickel price.

Source : RNZ

voda 27 november 2019 06:58

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Nikkelprijs stuitert door het jaar heen, en einde lijkt nog niet in zicht

Nikkel staat bekend als een volatiele grondstof, maar dit jaar slaat alles. Op geruchten dat Indonesië een exportverbod voor nikkelertsen zou invoeren vloog de prijs omhoog. Nikkel werd in korte tijd 50% duurder, met prijsstijgingen van bijna 9% op één dag.

Toen die geruchten op waarheid bleken te berusten zette de prijsstijging voor de grondstof voor roestvast staal door, tot een piek van boven de $18.000 per ton. Dat is het hoogste niveau in vijf jaar en staat in schril contrast met de prijsbewegingen van andere basis metalen zoals koper en zink. Die staan onder druk door de handelsoorlog.

Maar sinds een paar weken zit er plotseling weer de klad in: de prijs voor nikkel daalt, en hard ook. Gerekend vanaf de piek van de markt in september is er nu meer dan 20% van de prijs af, de definitie van een 'bear market,' waarbij beleggers pessimistisch gestemd zijn over het prijsverloop.

Wat is er aan de hand, en waar gaat de nikkelprijs heen?

'Het bizarre prijsverloop heeft alles te maken met de wispelturigheid van de Indonesische overheid, zegt Casper Burgering, grondstoffeneconoom bij ABN Amro. 'Handelaren reageren op het komende exportverbod voor nikkelerts, waardoor de prijzen op en neer schieten.'

Indonesië
Indonesië is de grootste producent van nikkelerts ter wereld. De ertsen zijn bovendien van goede kwaliteit en dus gewilder dan die uit andere plekken op de wereld, zoals de Filipijnen, die de tweede producent in grootte zijn.

Dat maakt de markt gevoelig voor elke snipper nieuws uit Indonesië.

Het land wil de nikkelertsen namelijk voor zichzelf houden. De verwerking van grondstoffen levert doorgaans hogere marges op en zo zou het land meer aan de eigen bodemschatten kunnen verdienen. Indonesië wil een eigen industrie opzetten voor de verwerking van de ertsen tot nikkel en uiteindelijk de producten die van nikkel worden gemaakt.

Exportverbod
De staalindustrie is tot nu toe de grootste afnemer van nikkel, dat onder andere op de metalenbeurs London Metal Exchange (LME) wordt verhandeld. Nikkel is een grondstof voor roestvast staal, maar wordt ook gebruikt voor legeringen in elektronica en in batterijen.

Voor 2022 was een exportverbod voor de ertsen in de maak, maar in de zomer gonsde het plotseling van de geruchten dat Indonesië dat naar voren zou halen. De geruchten zorgden voor heftige prijsbewegingen, want de markt heeft er weinig vertrouwen in dat Indonesië al die ertsen op korte termijn zelf kan omsmelten naar nikkel. De vrees was dat er tekorten zouden ontstaan.

Rally doorgeschoten
Eind augustus kondigde Indonesië officieel aan dat het exportverbod vanaf 2020 in zal gaan. Een paar weken later kwam zelfs het bericht dat het verbod per direct in zou gaan. Een heftige prijsbeweging bleef bij dat laatste bericht uit, en de regering heeft inmiddels dat 'per direct' alweer gedeeltelijk ingetrokken. Er worden nu uitzonderingen gemaakt voor sommige exporteurs.

Volgens analist Oliver Nugent, die voor de bank Citigroup de metalenmarkt volgt, speelt er meer mee op de markt voor nikkel dan de wispelturigheid van de Indonesische overheid. 'De rally was wel heel erg doorgeschoten op de angst voor tekorten. Dat was goed te zien op het verschil tussen de spotprijzen voor nikkel en de termijncontracten, voor levering over drie maanden. Voor spotlevering werd helemaal niet zoveel extra betaald, een teken dat de paniek bij eindafnemers helemaal niet zo groot was.'

Afnemende vraag
Die eindafnemers, zoals de aan het Damrak genoteerde roestvaststaalproducent Aperam, hebben op hun beurt weer last van afnemende vraag voor hun product. Door de handelsoorlog tussen de VS en China staat bijvoorbeeld de industrie onder druk en worden investeringen uitgesteld, wat zich weer vertaalt in lagere vraag naar (roestvast) staal.

Volgens Nugent is de huidige prijs redelijk in lijn met vraag en aanbod en is het effect van de grootschalige speculatie er wel uit. Voor de langere termijn verwacht de Citigroup-analist dat de nikkelprijs weer omhoog zal gaan. 'De fysieke markt gaat de effecten van het Indonesische exportverbod uiteindelijk wel merken, als de voorraden echt uitgeput raken. Wij gaan uit van een prijs van $17.500 per ton over twaalf maanden.'

Tegen het einde van de handelsdag kostte een ton nikkel (voor levering over drie maanden) dinsdag $14.395 op de metalenbeurs in Londen. Dat is ruim een half procent minder dan maandag, en ruim 20% onder de piek van $18.060 van begin september.

Lees ook:
Nikkelprijs schiet plotseling omhoog op komend exportverbod Indonesië
Stormloop op nikkel op na Indonesisch exportverbod
De perfecte storm raast over Europese staalindustrie

fd.nl/beurs/1325982/nikkelprijs-stuit...

voda 27 november 2019 12:36

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Chinese Buyers Step Up Nickel Ore Imports from Indonesia in October

According to the General Administration of Customs data, China's nickel ore imports from Indonesia surged 23.4% in October YoY, as Chinese buyers continue to stock up ahead of a ban on exports from top miners from January. China imported 6.85 million tonnes of nickel ore and concentrate last month,. That was down 3.9% from 7.13 million tonnes in September, but up 23.2% from 5.56 million tonnes a year earlier. Nickel ore shipments from Indonesia were 3.11 million tonnes in October as compared with the 2.52 million tonnes in September and surged 132.1% from 1.34 million tonnes a year earlier. China's imports of nickel ore from the Philippines, an alternative source of supply but with lower-grade ore, came in at 3.38 million tonnes last month, down 23% from 4.39 million tonnes in September and 4.01 million tonnes in October 2018.

The last high was recorded in January 2014 when the export ban on Indonesia ore was supposed to come into effect, but has since been delayed to the start of 2020 to redirect the ore for domestic use. The expedited ban prompted a scramble to ship ore out of Indonesia, with Jakarta imposing a temporary ban on shipments late last month after discovering violations of export rules. It has since allowed nine companies to resume exports until the end of the year.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 27 november 2019 12:41

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Fitch Solutions Sees Nickel Prices at USD 15000 in 2020

Fitch Solutions Macro Research said that nickel prices are expected to gradually increase between 2020 and 2022 due to tight supply as a result of the export ban imposed by Indonesia, the mineral’s top producer and the growing demand from the automotive industry. Fitch said “While prices could still head lower in the coming weeks, we believe that they will rebound from spot levels as we move into 2020 and remain elevated throughout next year, buoyed by a tight fundamental picture. In 2020, it projects average nickel prices of USD 15,000 per tonne, upgrading a previous estimate of USD 14,500. This is expected to increase to USD 15,500 in 2021 and 2022, then easing to USD 15,250 in 2023.”

Fitch Solutions noted that the increase in price will be influenced by Indonesia’s nickel export ban starting January. It said “In the longer term, we believe that prices will continue heading higher up until 2022 as the market will remain in deficit or balanced. The ban could also limit refining activity in China next year. Chinese refining output is now expected to grow an average of 2.5% year-on-year, down from 3% projected for 2019. However, supply concerns due to the ban have started to dissolve due to a realization that the Philippines could fill part of the gap as suspended mines resume their operations.”

Fitch Solutions added that nickel prices will also be influenced by demand from the automotive industry, a major user of stainless steel, which is the main application for nickel. Automotive demand will come into greater prominence amid an expected slowdown in the Chinese construction industry. Fitch Solutions said “Vehicle production will continue to record positive average annual growth of 1.0% over 2020-2028, lending some support to nickel demand. Other major nickel-consuming markets such as South Korea and India will also provide an upside to demand due to strong average vehicle production growth of 9.1% and 11.4%, respectively, over the next 10 years.”

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 28 november 2019 15:37

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Refillable Stainless Steel Kegs from China and Germany Retard US Industry – US ITC

The United States International Trade Commission has determined that the establishment of a US industry is materially retarded by reason of imports of refillable stainless steel kegs from China and Germany that the US Department of Commerce has determined are sold in the United States at less than fair value and subsidized by the government of China. As a result of the USITC’s affirmative determinations, Commerce will issue antidumping duty orders on imports of this product from China and Germany and a countervailing duty order on imports of this product from China. The Commission also made a negative finding concerning critical circumstances with regard to imports of this product from China. As a result, imports of refillable stainless steel kegs from China will not be subject to retroactive antidumping and countervailing duties.

Refillable stainless steel kegs are cylindrically shaped containers made from stainless steel and designed to hold, transport and dispense beer, wine and other liquids. These kegs are compatible with a 'D Sankey' extractor for dispensing, cleaning, and refilling; have a nominal liquid volume capacity of 10 liters or more

Status of Proceedings:
1. Type of investigation: Final phase antidumping duty and countervailing duty investigations.
2. Petitioners: American Keg Company LLC, Pottstown, PA.
3. USITC Institution Date: September 20, 2018.
4. USITC Hearing Date: August 14, 2019.
5. USITC Vote Date: November 22, 2019.
6. USITC Notification to Commerce Date: December 9, 2019.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

Bijlage:

voda 28 november 2019 16:12

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Nornickel Expects Global Structural Deficit in Nickel Market after 2020

Nornickel, in alliance with ICBC Standard Bank, has prepared a report on nickel markets. Nornickel Head of Marketing Mr Anton Berlin said “We register growing demand for high grade nickel from Europe, where steelmakers have been changing their feedstock mix. Automotive battery manufacturers are also buying more, meaning that in the long term we still expect a global structural deficit in the nickel market after 2020.”

A major focus of our research was on the stainless steel market, which accounts for more than 70% of the global nickel consumption. This year was marked by extensive trade wars affecting local and external markets likewise. Asia-Pacific was a key market in terms of nickel production and consumption, with a tide wave in Indonesia’s stainless steel output prompting China to introduce a protective duty on its imports. This step forced Indonesian companies to look at other markets in the region and focus on making nickel pig iron to trade with China.

Price dumping by Asian steel manufacturers and protectionist moves by the US administration are forcing local players to adopt defensive strategies against stainless steel imports, triggering full-blown rebalancing on the local market. For example, a decline in scrap prices in Europe came as an additional incentive for crude ferronickel replacement. A rise in scrap processing, in its turn, had a positive impact on Nornickel, the largest global producer of high grade nickel exporting some 50% of its non-ferrous and precious metals to Europe.

Nornickel experts emphasize persistent growth in demand from car battery manufacturers, while also expressing doubts that the announced new crude ferronickel production capacities in Indonesia will be enough to meet the increasing demand in the long term. The Indonesian decision to introduce a ban on nickel ore exports ahead of the schedule is yet another factor fuelling general uncertainty and market volatility.

Nornickel’s expert team believes that 2020 will become a transitional year for the industry. The current market situation is not expected to change materially any time soon, with the status-quo supported by ongoing increases in NPI production volumes in Indonesia, and growing supplies of nickel ore from the Philippines, New Caledonia and Guatemala. After 2020, however, the market is most likely to face structural deficit.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 29 november 2019 16:59

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Bird Stainless Acquires AKM Steels

UK’s specialist stainless steel long bar supplier Bird Stainless has acquired AKM Steels, supplier of quality tool steels for the engineering industry. This acquisition of this niche tool steel company is a strategic move by Bird Stainless to expand their range of grades and products, making them even better placed to serve the engineering and tool making sector.

Bird Stainless MD Mr Nigel Bird said “I am excited to bring AKM Steels into our fold. Like us they are a longstanding Sheffield family business offering quality product, fast delivery times and excellent technical support. It will give us a much wider product offering benefitting the customers of both companies.”

Going forward, it will be business as usual, all staff will remain on site and customers will be able to purchase exactly as they did before.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 12 december 2019 20:02

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Indonesia to Change Royalty Structure on Nickel Products and Bauxite

Reuters reported that according to new government regulations, Indonesia will double royalties on sales of the nickel ore to 10% while also adjusting the charges for other minerals. The new regulations, which take effect from December 25, also include a 5% royalty on sales of nickel pig iron. Royalties for sales of ferronickel and nickel matte will be halved to 2% for each, down from 4% previously, with 2% new royalties also imposed on other nickel products, such as mixed hydroxide precipitate and nickel sulfide. Royalties on bauxite are doubled to 7%, with aluminium set lower at 2%. Mining Ministry Director of Minerals Mr Yunus Saefulhak said “The royalty tariffs on nickel needed readjustment to give more balanced rates between ore miners and those who produce refined products. The adjustment is also aimed at encouraging miners to add value to ores by imposing lower royalties for processed products.”

Indonesia is aiming to reduce its reliance on natural resources exports by building smelting industries for minerals such as nickel, bauxite and copper. It will stop exporting nickel ore from January to process it domestically.

Source : Reuters

Bijlage:

voda 12 december 2019 20:47

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2019 a Staller Year for Nickel, 2020 Uncertain as Indonesia Ore Ban Looms

2019 has proved to be a landmark year for nickel, which rose by whooping 77% in first 9 months on supply fears to USD 18850 per tonne on London Metal Exchange related to an export ban from the world's number one producing nation Indonesia, has fallen from grace in recent weeks to dip to USD 13195 on December 9th, down by about 30% as Indonesian ban then seemed to be less of a concern than poor demand. Various analysts are busy adjusting their outlook for nickel

Bank of America analyst said “Many of the usual metrics, including canceled warrants and forward curves have now been normalizing, as prices dropped by 30%, suggesting the nickel market can now refocus on fundamentals. One of those fundamentals is growing demand from the electric vehicle sector. We have been long-term nickel bulls on a view that the electrification of autos would boost battery demand and push up nickel usage along with it.”

Citi analyst aid "Current nickel prices are digging into marginal production costs and in our view pricing a recession like demand outlook We are bullish nickel on a 6-12 month view and recommend scaling in from around current levels. We see the risks surrounding the price outlook as skewed to the upside by around 3:1 at USD 14,000, USD 13,000 near-term downside risk vs a USD 17,500 2020 point price target.”

Capital Economics analyst said “Given the Indonesian export ban from January, there’s probably scope for the price to move higher next year. But there’s a bit of a wild card to the extent to which there are stocks left off the official numbers. Our estimates are that there’s about 300,000 tonnes of unreported.
nickel sitting off exchange.”

voda 26 december 2019 11:41

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Tan Viet Quang Starts Construction of Stainless Steel Plant in Quang Tri

Vietnamese media reported that Tan Viet Quang Company Limited began construction of a plant set to produce stainless steel and steel alloy in Que Hai commune in Hai Lang district in the central province of Quang Tri on December 25. The plant will have a capacity to produce 240,000 tonnes per year and a total investment capital of VND1.6 trillion (USD 69 million)

Director of Tan Viet Quang Company Limited Nguyen Ba Dung said that the plant is equipped with up to date modern technologies and devices and is assured to protect the environment.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 26 december 2019 11:41

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Indonesia Will Lead World's Stainless Steel Exports by 2021 – Minister

TEMPO reported that Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Mr Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan believes that Indonesia would be the world’s largest stainless steel exporter by the year 2021 following the country's constant growth of stainless steel exports. He recently said “Our stainless steel exports have reached USD 5.8 billion annually.”

The Industry Ministry previously recorded iron and steel exports grew from 302,919 tons in 2017 to 459,502 tonnes in 2018 (January-September), while exports of HRC stainless steel rose from 324,108 tonnes to 877,990 tonnes during the same period.

Source : Tempo

voda 6 januari 2020 17:09

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Weak Global Demand for Stainless Steel Pressuring Ferrochrome Prices

South African Ferrochrome producer Merafe Resources recently said the European benchmark ferrochrome price will decrease by 1% in the first quarter of 2020 to USD 1.01 a pound. In the fourth quarter of 2019, price of ferrochrome stood at USD 1.02 per pound. While the new settled price only reflects a 1 US cent decrease, it is now at 2016 lows. In 2019, the European benchmark ferrochrome price declined by 17.8%. The fall was largely driven by weak global demand for stainless steel.

South Africa is the dominant player in the global industry, accounting for about 72% of the world's chrome reserves. According to Merafe Resources, the industry employs about 200 000 people in SA, directly and indirectly through linked industries. Merafe holds a 20.5% interest in the Glencore-Merafe Chrome Venture that operates several ferrochrome plants. The weak demand was partly responsible for the 29% decrease in ferrochrome production by the Glencore-Merafe Chrome Venture for the third quarter of 2019.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 7 januari 2020 19:38

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AIRLAB 3D Prints Stainless Steel Components for Pavilion

Built using more than 200 rods connected by 54 3D-printed steel nodes the temporary pavilion was created by the Architectural Intelligence Research Lab, based at the Singapore University of Technology and Design. Called AIRMESH, it is the product of five years of researching and was assembled in two days using only hex keys. Designed to remain on its site for three years, the pavilion has been oriented to frame four key views for visitors to the Grant Associates and Wilkinson Eyre Architects-designed park: the nearby Dragonfly River, the SG50 Dome, the garden's entrance path and the rooftop of the Moshe Safdie-designed Marina Bay Sands Hotel.

Drawings its shape from what AIRLAB describes as a "three-dimensional complex neural network," the pavilion's tetrahedral design means it is able to withstand loads of 16 times its 700 kilogram weight despite its delicate appearance.

Two layers of plastic mesh cover the pavilion's exteriors, shading the metal walkway inside while also allowing purple LED lights filled to either side of this path to illuminate the structure like a lantern at night.

BBC Studios pavilion by Universal Design Studio and Giles Miller Studio at MIPCOM trade show in Cannes

While AIRMESH is a temporary experiment, the research group hopes that many of the techniques that its structure demonstrates can be applied to future projects. In Rio Grande, Rael San Fratello 3D printed a series of earth structures, and in China AZL Architects built a garden pavilion using 3D-printed blocks of translucent plastic.

Project credits:
Designers: AIRLAB, Carlos Bañon and Felix Raspall
Lead researcher: Anna Toh Hui Ping
Research team: David Rosen, Vahid Hassani, Jenn Chong, Sourabh Maheshwary, Sihan Wang, Liu Chi, Huang Kunsheng, Luo Qihuan, Aurelia Chan and Cheong Yilei.

Source : Dezeen

Bijlage:

voda 7 januari 2020 20:33

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World Nickel Production and Consumption - DIIS

Australia’s Department of Industry, Innovation and Science’s Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2019 said “China's manufacturing supports consumption growth. In 2019 world nickel consumption is estimated to be 2.4 million tonnes — 2.5 per cent higher than in 2018. This is slower than recent years. 3S growth h3s been weighed down by deteriorating world economic conditions. China accounts for more than half of world nickel consumption, and in the year to September, nickel consumption grew 13 per cent compared to the same period in 2018. Stainless steel production, the largest use of nickel, has been stagnant in most countries except for China. World nickel consumption excluding China fell 2.9 per cent in the year to September, primarily due to lower consumption in Japan and flat consumption in Indonesia.

Healthy consumption growth expected over outlook period World nickel demand is forecast to grow at an average 2.0 per cent a year over the outlook period, reaching 2.5 million tonnes in 2021. Higher usage in China is expected to account for most of this growth. However, China nickel pig iron processing is heavily reliant on imports of Indonesian nickel ore which may be constrained by export restrictions. Usage in Indonesia is expected to continue growing, with downstream investment in nickel smelting capacity and expanding stainless steel manufacturing. Partly supported by Indonesia's export ban 6,500 tonnes of new stainless steel capacity is expected to come online in Indonesia over the outlook period.

Nickel used in batteries is currently a small market, accounting for about 3 per cent of nickel usage. However, growth in stationary energy storage and electric vehicles is expected to raise nickel usage, particularly as nickel intensity in battery chemistry rises. The potential growth prospects are significant — Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts nickel used in batteries could rise by over 20 per cent a year over the outlook period.
Strong consumption forecasts are expected to outpace production growth and leave markets in continued deficit — although the production outlook is very uncertain with a number of political factors at play.

WORLD PRODUCTION

In 2019, mined nickel output is estimated to have reached 2.8 million tonnes, 7.0 per cent higher than 2013. Nickel output has been incentivised by strong price signals and prospective consumption growth, and Indonesia has accounted for most of this growth. Production from the Philippines, the world's third largest producer, has been constrained in 2019. Increasing environmental standards and government audits have led to a number of open pit mines being temporarily closed, and there is potential for the policy to be extended. Mine output is forecast to decline slightly in 2020 before recovering to 2.0 million tonnes in 2021.

Investment in refinery capacity is expected to support further growth over the outlook period, with refined production forecast to reach 2.4 million tonnes by 2021 up from an estimated 2.3 million tonnes in 2019. There is a potential 130,000 tonnes of new refined nickel capacity being considered in China that could come online over the outlook period as well as 90.000 tonnes of capacity in Indonesia. The progress of these projects will be dependent on nickel prices maintaining current strength.

Indonesia's export ban to change market fundamentals Announcements relating to Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed nickel had a significant impact on market sentiment in the second half of 2019. The policy is designed to force the development of downstream refining capacity in Indonesia, including nickel pig iron and stainless steel capacity, as well as potential battery manufacturing. In late August, the Indonesian Government announced that nickel ore exports will be banned from January 2020 earlier than the original 2022 start date. This resulted in price hikes, a rush to increase exports and a lowering of warehouse stock levels. China's imports of unprocessed nickel jumped following the announcement, increasing 56 per cent year-on-year in September.

In late October, the Indonesian Government placed an immediate ban on exports in response to the spike in exports. For companies that could prove sufficient investment in downstream processing capacity, the export ban was lifted in mid-November.

Removing Indonesia's nickel output from the world market is expected to have significant impacts on world supply, and constrain refinery activity in China. In the past the loss of Indonesia’s exports has been accommodated by higher Pilipino production. However, this production is likely to be constrained by capacity limits and seasonal factors.

Voor cijfers, zie pdf.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

Bijlage:

voda 21 januari 2020 20:04

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AISI Comments on Indonesia Nickel Ore Ban Export

In response to a request from the Office of the United States Trade Representative, the American Iron and Steel Institute, on behalf of its US producer member companies, has submited comments to USTR on its country practice review for Indonesia market access under the Generalized System of Preferences. AISI said “US stainless steel producers are extremely concerned that without intervention by the US government, Indonesia’s market-distorting behavior will ultimately force the shutdown of critical domestic stainless steelmaking operations and leave the United States reliant on foreign sources for producing stainless steel vital for the US industrial and defense industries. As USTR reviews Indonesia’s market access compliance with its GSP commitments, AISI urges it to take into account the manipulation of the nickel market by the Indonesian government as it considers the continued eligibility of Indonesia under the Generalized System of Preferences. Given in particular the Indonesian government’s direct actions to limit market access to its nickel ore, a basic commodity resource, AISI is of the view that Indonesia no longer meets a key statutory criterion for GSP beneficiary country status.”

According to the US Geological Survey, in 2018, Indonesia was the world’s largest mine producer of nickel, while also holding the largest nickel ore reserves in the world. As part of a national plan to develop certain downstream industries, including in particular stainless steel, Indonesia in 2014 imposed a complete ban on the export of unprocessed mineral ore exports, including nickel ore. In 2017, the government of Indonesia partially relaxed this export prohibition by issuing a set of rules allowing companies that meet certain stringent requirements to export mineral concentrates, including certain amounts of low-grade nickel ore with a concentration of less than 1.7 percent nickel (subject to an export tax of ten percent),6 with the stated plan to reintroduce a total export ban on nickel in January 2022.7 In August 2019 Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that it was reinstating the total export prohibition for all nickel ore as of January 1, 2020. hese measures have caused a very significant drop-off in Indonesian nickel ore exports beginning in 2014, as detailed in the chart below.

A major beneficiary of the Indonesian export restrictions on nickel has been the Chinese stainless steel producer Tsingshan Holdings Group (Tsingshan). In August 2017, Tsingshan opened a stainless steel mill in Indonesia with the primary purpose of exporting stainless steel to other markets around the world, including in particular the United States and the European Union, as Indonesian consumption of stainless steel products is significantly below the annual production capabilities of this facility. Tsingshan invested USD 6-7 billion to build the 3.0-3.5 million metric ton production facility in Morowali, Indonesia,8 which was heavily promoted and sponsored by the Indonesian government and was financed as part of the Chinese government’s ‘Go Global’ and subsequent ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ programs. Indonesia’s total stainless steel production capacity is expected to expand to over 50 times its annual 200,000 metric ton domestic demand by 2025, and thus production in Indonesia is almost entirely intended for export. Moreover, this investment in Indonesia is in addition to Tsingshan’s stainless steel production capacity of 7.0 million metric tons in China, providing the company with a total stainless steel production capacity of 10 million metric tons, nearly 20 percent of global stainless steel demand.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 27 januari 2020 16:24

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EU Starts Registration of HR Stainless Steel Imports from Taiwan, China and Indonesia

The European Union has ordered its customs officials to register flat-rolled stainless steel imports from China, Taiwan and Indonesia, widening the threat of tariffs on the shipments. The step is part of an inquiry into whether Chinese, Taiwanese and Indonesian producers of hot-rolled, stainless-steel sheets and coils sold them in the EU below cost, a practice known as dumping. The move also covers a parallel EU probe of alleged trade-distorting subsidies to the manufacturers in China and Indonesia. Registration allows the EU to impose possible tariffs on past transactions. European Commission said “The shipments from China, Taiwan and Indonesia will be made subject to registration for the purpose of ensuring that, should the investigation result in findings leading to the imposition of anti-dumping and/or countervailing duties, those duties can, if the necessary conditions are fulfilled, be levied retroactively on the registered imports.”

Hot-rolled, stainless-steel sheets and coils are used for other kinds of steel and for tubes. EU imports of the product from around the world were worth almost 900 million euros in 2018, according to European industry group Eurofer, which filed complaints last year that led to the commission’s dumping and subsidy investigations against China, Taiwan and Indonesia.

The commission must decide by April 12 whether to introduce provisional anti-dumping duties on imports of this steel from the three countries and by Oct. 12 whether to impose definitive five-year levies. In the subsidy case against China and Indonesia, the commission must decide by July 10 on any provisional duties and by mid-November on any definitive levies.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

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