Klinkt geruststellend
While market expectations for Big Oil dividends have reduced over the past two weeks, pricing in a 37% cut from 2019 dividends for European majors in 2021, Goldman Sachs analysts including Michele Della Vigna said that they do not expect a cut because of the current environment. “In past oil downturns, Big Oil on aggregate did not respond to challenging macro conditions through material dividend cuts,” they said in a research note Tuesday.
Serious Questions
Even before the crash in prices, Big Oil was in a difficult place. The industry was the worst performing part of the stock market as investors fretted about its ability to navigate the energy transition, invest enough in keeping their businesses going and meet their obligations to shareholders.
“The situation as it stands looks pretty challenged for most of the oil majors, if you were to assume that prices will persist at these levels,” said Nick Stansbury, head of commodity research at Legal & General Investment Management, one of the largest shareholders of major oil companies. “If it sticks for six, nine months, then there will be serious questions raised about the sustainability of dividends.”
These companies’ sheer size gives them the financial flexibility to allow business to continue even in times of significant hardship. Beyond lower spending, Europe’s oil companies could opt to pay dividends to investors in scrip, where cash is substituted with new shares. BP’s Gilvary said this is one tool in his armory, but the company isn’t considering it right now.
Letting debt rise is another option, but Exxon’s downgrade shows the limit of that strategy.“They’re going to have to lean on the balance sheet,” Barrett said. “At some point though, borrowing to pay the dividend is not sustainable.”