Bericht 14 januari
Shell Coy About Reports of Namibia Discovery
Copyright © 2022 Energy Intelligence Group
Published:
Thu, Jan 13, 2022
Author
Christina Katsouris, London
Editor
Andrew Kelly
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Rumors that Royal Dutch Shell may have discovered significant quantities of light oil offshore Namibia have generated excitement and could put the southwest African country back on the oil map.
Chatter about a material find has emerged just as some were pondering whether frontier exploration has a future and as international oil companies (IOCs) face pressure to end new oil and gas development.
Both Shell and Namibia's state energy company Namcor declined to comment on the size of the reported find at the Graff exploration prospect.
"We continue to collect quality data," said a Shell spokesman, while Namcor dismissed recent reports about a discovery as "premature."
A meaty commercial find would test current thinking among IOCs about frontier oil development, as well as their commitment to decarbonize and shift away from fossil fuel production.
It would be ironic for Namibia — which has aspired to become an oil and gas producer since the 1970s — to be validated as a serious oil play just as the world starts to transition toward low-carbon energy.
News Expected Soon
More details about Graff and TotalEnergies' recently drilled Venus-1 well in a neighboring block should emerge by February.
"Drilling on [the] Graaf-1 [well] is still ongoing, and results should be available in two weeks," Namcor Managing Director Immanuel Mulunga told Energy Intelligence.
"We hope to have news on Total's Venus-1 well by the end of the month too," he added.
Both Shell and Total have slashed their exploration budgets in recent years, and both have focused on developing satellites close to established fields to reduce costs by using existing infrastructure.
Shell entered the Namibia license in 2014 and carried out three seismic surveys in 2014-19. The Graff-1 well represents a drilling commitment required under a second renewal period for the license.
Shell spent $2.2 billion on global exploration in 2015, but set a modest annual exploration budget of $1.5 billion for 2021-25.
Small is Beautiful, But Big is Better
Could discoveries in southern Africa encourage major companies to shift away from their cautious policy of tying back satellites to existing platforms and embark on a major standalone development?
Total is still looking at ways to develop the Brulpadda and Luiperd discoveries in neighboring South Africa.
And the Brulpadda discovery in 2019 certainly caught Shell's attention.
The following year, Shell doubled its equity interest to 90% in Namibia's PEL 39 Block and South Africa's Northern Cape Block ER 274, before bringing QatarEnergy into the blocks via farm-in transactions.
Shell also acquired interests in South Africa's Transkei and Algoa Blocks in 2020 after Total's discoveries in the Outeniqua Basin.
Last Throw of the Dice?
For Namibia, whose hopes have been raised and dashed so many times, Graff and Venus could represent the last throw of the dice.
After the Kudu gas discovery in 1974 — which remains undeveloped — various companies showed up with each new surge in oil prices, but positive results remained elusive.
The biggest disappointment came in 2013, when Brazilian company HRT's three-well drilling program failed to yield a commercial discovery.