Just to update:
As you know (see old posts), the stock is in the mt-downtrend since May 28. For last 4-5 month the company has lost more than 1/3 of its cap.: from ~105 (May) till ~72 (Sep-Oct).
So, it’s just time for “consolidation phase”.... The “consolidation range” was expected within the interval ~85.60 – 70.0. It's determined by the r-zone ~85.0-83.6 (formed mid of Sep) and s-zone ~73.5-70 (formed by the dynamic & static lt/mt-supports – read old posts for details).
Though the last weeks trading dominated by speculative (very) active st/d- strategies, the “institutionals” (just ‘by the way’) reduced their long positions (since Sep) by casing on ~17.3 M .
The trading dynamic is (mainly) determing by (spec) return oprtimization objectives. Indeed, following the p/v/t-distributions:
- around ~6 M of (profitable) speculative shares were sitting under ~77, and just ~4 M spec-shares were sitting in the range ~77-78. Thust, around ~10 M (profitable) shares were sitting just under ~78
- around ~7 M of (profitable) spec-shares were already sold out during Oct 23-30, by cashing just above ~83, i.e. within the r-zone – the upper edge of consolidation range (see above);
- thus, given that current trading liquidity is around ~1 M per day, one can expect the “consolidation phase” to continue for the next ~3-4 sessions (including this one)....
And, as you know, after “consolidation” the stock usually continues the (former) trend......
Take care. Think well before going long (for highly overvalued stock) at the upper edge of "consolidation range" .....