Ivanhoe Mines: The Platreef Mine DFS Results Are Positive
Aug. 2, 2017 8:50 AM ET|
Peter Arendas
Long only, commodities, research analyst
(1,365 followers)
Summary
Ivanhoe Mines presented the results of the Definitive Feasibility Study for the first stage of its Platreef platinum-palladium-rhodium-gold-copper-nickel mine development.
The 4 Mtpa operation should produce 476,000 toz of precious metals, 13 million lb nickel and 21 million lb copper per year.
The mine is expected to become the lowest cost platinum group metals (PGM) producer in the World.
After the third stage of development (12 Mtpa) is finished, Platreef should become the biggest PGM mine in the World.
The debt financing of the Platreef mine CAPEX is well underway.
Ivanhoe Mines (OTCQX:IVPAF) announced the results of the definitive feasibility study (DFS) for its 64%-owned Platreef project. The huge mine that will produce platinum, palladium, rhodium, gold, nickel, and copper is poised to become the biggest platinum group metals (PGM) mine in the world. Ivanhoe has decided for a staged approach. In the first phase, the mine will be able to process 4 million tonnes of ore per annum (4 Mtpa). Later, it will be expanded to 8 Mtpa and in the third phase, the capacity should reach the 12 Mtpa level. The recently released results of the DFS outline the economics of the first phase (4 Mtpa).
Over the 32-year mine life, the 4 Mtpa operation should be able to produce 214,000 toz platinum, 219,000 toz palladium, 30,000 toz gold, 14,000 toz rhodium, 13 million lb nickel and 21 million lb copper per year on average. At the current metals prices of $940/toz platinum, $890/toz palladium, $1,270/toz gold, $900/toz rhodium, $4.6/lb nickel and $2.85/lb copper, the annual revenues should exceed $566 million.
The combined average annual production of the precious metals (4E) should be 476,000 toz. The current value of 1 toz of 4E is slightly less than $939. It means that the mine should generate significant free cash-flows, given that the life of mine cash cost net of by-products and including sustaining capital is estimated at $351/toz 4E. The production costs are very low compared to most of the peers and the Platreef mine should become the lowest-cost platinum group metals producer.
According to the DFS, the initial CAPEX is estimated at $1.54 billion. The after-tax NPV (8%) of the 4 Mtpa project is $916 million and the after-tax IRR is 14.2%. The values were calculated using life of mine average metals prices of $1,250/toz platinum, $825/toz palladium, $1,300/toz gold, $1,000/toz rhodium, $7.6/lb nickel and $3/lb copper. As can be seen in the chart below, the metals prices used in the DFS are a little higher compared to the current market prices. While the current palladium price is almost 8% higher compared to the DFS palladium price, and the gold and copper DFS prices are almost in line with the current market prices, the platinum, rhodium and nickel prices used in the DFS are notably higher compared to the current market prices. The DFS price of the precious metals basket is $1,053/toz 4E, however, the current market price is only $939/toz 4E, which is 11% lower.
Although the metals prices used in the DFS may seem relatively optimistic, they are closer to the current market reality than the metals prices used in the PFS ($1,630/toz platinum, $815/toz palladium, $1,300/toz gold, $2,000/toz rhodium, ($1,249/toz 4E), $8.9/lb nickel, $3/lb copper). Moreover, given the expected mine life of 32 years and the current state of the metals markets, there is a good probability that the prices used in the DFS will turn out to be not only reasonable but possibly even conservative.
The construction of the mine is underway. Shaft 1 should be completed next year and the early works on Shaft 2, the main production shaft, started in Q2. Ivanhoe Mines intends to finance its share of the 4 Mtpa Platreef CAPEX (approximately $1 billion) via debt instruments. According to the recent news release, the negotiations progress well:
The five Initial Mandated Lead Arrangers (IMLAs) will make best efforts to arrange a total debt financing of up to US$1 billion for the development of Platreef's first-phase, four Mtpa mine. Preliminary expressions of interest now have been received for approximately US$900 million of the targeted US$1 billion financing. Negotiation of a term sheet is ongoing. In addition, preliminary discussions have commenced with leading financial institutions around the financing of the black economic empowerment partners' contribution to the development capital.
Conclusion
The DFS has confirmed the potential of the Platreef mine that is expected to become not only the largest but also the lowest cost PGM mine in the World. After the first phase of the mine (4 Mtpa operation) is completed, it should produce 476,000 toz of 4E, at a cash cost of $351/toz, after by-product credits and sustaining CAPEX are taken into account. Another positive news is that the financing of the mine progresses well. There is a good chance that Ivanhoe Mines will be able to finance its share of CAPEX via debt, without diluting the shareholders.
Disclosure: I am/we are long IVPAF.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.