ASML « Terug naar discussie overzicht

quote:

trendwatchings schreef op 24 januari 2018 14:08:

[...]

"buy the dip" is in de maak. Verwacht dat 158 -160 euro weer een leuk terugkoopmoment wordt. Zou als de US open gaat wel een een keermoment kunnen worden van het pos. beurssentiment van de afgelopen 6 maanden.

quote:

Inion schreef op 24 januari 2018 17:38:

Die SNSN is een zeer negatieve en nutteloze factor op dit forum.

quote:

Inion schreef op 24 januari 2018 19:58:

SNSN post hier voortdurend onzin, waar niemand wat aan heeft. Kan de moderator hier wat aan doen?

quote:

SNSN schreef op 24 januari 2018 19:22:

[...].... Moreover, based on company fundamentals - the stock is really overpriced - almost twice above the 'fair value' (read old posts).

quote:

SNSN schreef op 24 januari 2018 19:22:

[...]

Take it easy.

We just provide an objective info. This may be either positive, or negative (as well as just neutral). You know well, diff people may see the same (objective) info in diff ways: 'positive', or 'negative'. It's as usual --> 'one size doesn't fit everybody'.

For instance, you were informed the first (potentially) bearish reversal signal - 'spinning top' - was received on Jan 19, followed by the second bearish reversal signal - 'shooting star' - on Jan 22 (just take a look at recent posts for details).

Sure, by some 'investors' the above mentioned writing could be considered as a 'negative' one (even if that was just an 'objective' info, nothing more). Though, some other people (prof traders) just knew that very well, and did acted properly.

Well, you can see the consequences now, and can validate whether the early warning - bearish reversal signals were correct or not.

Moreover, based on company fundamentals - the stock is really overpriced - almost twice above the 'fair value' (read old posts).

However, the actual problem is that we, seems, indeed identified some events that could be interpreted as (systemic) 'upwards price manipulations'. Some checks are still needed, and we'll be back to the issue later on.

Take care.

PS. Just don't forget that even if you do not like some info, this still doesn't mean that the particular info is just wrong. Though, you know well that ALL market-related info's have 'probabilistic nature', as the stock price dynamic is just a 'stochastic process' (moreover, it's NOT stationary)

quote:

SNSN schreef op 24 januari 2018 20:10:

[...]

Did you want to say there was no 'spinning top' signal on Jan 19 and 'shorting star' on Jan 22 ?

That's just objective info you can't change.

Though, if you don't understand meaning of those patterns, just google it.

Good luck.

quote:

rolof schreef op 24 januari 2018 20:12:

[...]Hoezo is de huidige koers van ASML bijna het dubbele van de fair value?

Er zijn verschillende methoden voor de bepaling van de waarde van een onderneming.

De in theorie meest objectieve methode om de waarde te bepalen is de DCF methode.

De Discount Cash Flow (DCF) methode is gebaseerd op de toekomstige kasstromen van de onderneming.

Deze methode hanterende kom je voor ASML op een fair value van circa 180 euro.

www.vanslingerlandt.com/bedrijven/?se...

quote:

SNSN schreef op 24 januari 2018 20:51:

[...]

Just for you to know --> there is NO way to get the 'company value' directly, indeed, as there are NO corresponding liquid markets...(thus, it's just NOT observable parameter)

Actually there is a a number of various (theoretical) methodologies how to calculate 'theoretical value' for the company (using observable in the market parameters).

If you are really interested (and didn't study at least at university), the 'DCF - evaluation' is actually one of the 'oldest ones' and the less sophisticated one.

As for the methodology you mentioned, the main DCF-problem is that the 'discounting coefficient' is just NOT KNOWN - it's just a FREE PARAMETER (which is UNKNOWN -> may be chosen ARBITRARY).

So, if briefly, the DCF-methodology --> is just very old rubbish, as one 'unknown variable' (company 'value') is just substituted by the another UNKNOWN variable - 'discounting parameter'.

Just try to understand --> 'discounting coefficient' (or rates) is NOT known --> it's just a 'free parameter' --> you can chose that one what you want --> resulting in the 'company value' exactly that what you want.

All these stuff mentioned above are actually well known to ALL university students.

Would you really like to understand modern 'relative' and/or ''absolute' valuation methodology - just let's know

Good luck

quote:

rolof schreef op 24 januari 2018 20:59:

[...]@SNSN,

Ik wist niet dat je kwaad werd maar daar lijkt het wel op (gezien al het VET en onderstreept).

Als je kwaad wordt houden de argumenten op. Jammer. Hier laten we het dan maar bij.