Beurskingpin schreef op 13 september 2018 16:22:
Sensitivity analysis suggests positive risk/reward with a bull case of €155 (c.50%
upside potential) and a bear case of €75 (c.30% downside potential)
We have performed a sensitivity analysis on our base case EmV assessing a range of
outcomes for filgotinib sales and approval of pipeline projects. In our Bull case
scenario we remove the risk adjustment for filgotinib in RA (+€6.8 per share),
increase our peak filgotinib RA sales by €500m (+€13.5 per share) and remove the
risk adjustments on filgotinib in both UC and PsA (+€16.1 per share), seeing as these
are the indications in which Pfizer's Xeljanz is already approved. This leads to a bull
case EmV of €155, which offers c.50% upside to current levels. Overall, our bull
case factors in €4.5bn of risk adjusted filgotinib sales (vs. base case €3.2bn).
Aldus JP Morgan.