From Bloomberg News:
"Saving China's Black Soil
"Against the backdrop of climate change, global trade disputes and, now, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has intensified its focus on food security, including efforts to protect the country’s most precious soil. By 2025, China plans to improve the organic matter in nearly 6.7 million hectares of black soil by 10%. It’s a good start, but would still be well below the levels enjoyed in the 1950s.
"Black soil exists in only a few places in the world — in central Eurasia and especially Ukraine, and in the Red River Valley in the U.S. and Canada — and it’s so potent that occasionally criminals are busted for black-market trafficking in the stuff.
"Global warming makes the situation worse. Average temperatures are nearly 2 degrees Celsius higher in China’s black soil region today than they were 50 years ago, a difference large enough to speed up the decomposition in the soil’s organic matter faster. Extreme weather events, like droughts and floods, also caused more soil loss."
My take on this: China is going to need much more fertilizer to maintain its crop yields, which are crucial to its domestic stability. Where will China get fertilizer from, if it can't supply its own needs? I'm guessing from their BFF Russia, but that's only a guess. But wherever China gets fertilizer from--even if they can generate most of their supply domestically--it will decrease the available fertilizer for the rest of the world. China's demand for fertilizer may well be huge, which would support world fertilizer markets indefinitely. My two cents, from a mile-high level--not a closely reasoned analysis based on specific numbers.
(bijdrage op Seeking Alpha)