The following is an update to the fourth quarter 2024 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the fourth quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual fourth quarter 2024 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on January 30, 2025. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
See appendix for the definition of the non-GAAP measure used and the most comparable GAAP measure.
Integrated Gas
$ billions Q3’24 Q4’24 Outlook Comment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Production (kboe/d) 941 880 - 920 Scheduled maintenance at Pearl GTL in Qatar in Q4’24.
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) 7.5 6.8 - 7.2 Lower feedgas, and fewer cargos due to the timing of liftings.
Underlying opex 1.1 1.0 - 1.2
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation 1.4 1.2 - 1.6
Taxation charge 0.9 0.5 - 0.8
Other Considerations:
Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be significantly lower than Q3’24, driven by the (non-cash) impact of expiring hedging contracts. Q4’24 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.3 billion.
Upstream
$ billions Q3’24 Q4’24 Outlook Comment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Production (kboe/d) 1,811 1,790 - 1.890
Underlying opex 2.1 2.2 - 2.8
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation 2.7 2.4 - 3.1
Taxation charge 2.4 2.3 - 3.1
Other Considerations:
The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q4’24 is expected to be ~$0.3 billion. Q4’24 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.4 billion.
Marketing
$ billions Q3’24 Q4’24 Outlook Comment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Sales volumes (kb/d) 2,945 2,600 - 3,000
Underlying opex 2.7 2.4 - 2.8
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation 0.6 0.4 - 0.8
Taxation charge 0.3 0.1 - 0.4
Other Considerations:
Marketing results are expected to be lower than Q3’24, reflecting seasonality.
Chemicals and Products
$ billions Q3’24 Q4’24 Outlook Comment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Indicative refining margin $5.5/bbl $5.5/bbl
Indicative chemicals margin $164/tonne $138/tonne The Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to reflect a loss in Q4’24.
Refinery utilisation 81% 74% - 78%
Chemicals utilisation 76% 73% - 77%
Underlying opex 2.1 2.0 - 2.4
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation 0.9 0.8 - 1.0
Taxation charge / (credit) (0.1) (0.6) - (0.1)
Other Considerations:
Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly lower than Q3’24, reflecting seasonality.
Renewables and Energy Solutions
$ billions Q3’24 Q4’24 Outlook Comment
Adjusted Earnings (0.2) (0.6) - (0.1)
Corporate
$ billions Q3’24 Q4’24 Outlook Comment
Adjusted Earnings (0.6) (0.4) - (0.2)
Shell Group
$ billions Q3’24 Q4’24 Outlook Comment
CFFO:
Tax paid 3.0 2.3 - 3.1
Derivative movements 0.1 (2) - 2
Other (0.4) (2) - (1) CFFO excluding working capital is expected to include an ~$1.3 billion outflow related to timing of payments of emissions certificates relating to the German BEHG* and US Biofuel programmes.
Working capital 2.7 (1) - 3 Q4’24 Working Capital movements is expected to include a ~$1.0 billion payment of German Mineral Oil Taxes.
Other Shell Group Considerations:
The taxation charge across segments includes the annual reassessment of deferred tax assets and one-off tax hurts.
Non-cash post tax impairments / (impairment reversals)
(These items are reported as identified items) 1.5 - 3.0 Renewables & Energy Solutions
Marketing
Upstream
Integrated gas
Chemicals & Products 0.8 - 1.2
0.4 - 0.6
0.1 - 0.5
0.1 - 0.5
0.1 - 0.2
Net debt is expected to include $4 - 6 billion of new lease liabilities recognised in Q4’24, including the recognition of the LNG Canada pipeline liability.
*Brennstoffemissionshandelsgesetz (Fuel Emissions Trading Act)
Guidance
The ‘Quarterly Databook’ contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities (Link).
Consensus
The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the reporting segments and CFFO at a Shell group level, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on January 22, 2024.
Appendix
Indicative Margins
Chemicals & Products Q3’24 Q4’24 Updated Outlook
Indicative refining margin $5.5/bbl $5.5/bbl
Indicative chemicals margin $164/tonne $138/tonne
Volume Data
Q3’24 Adjusted Q4’24 QPR Outlook Q4’24 Updated Outlook
Integrated Gas
Production (kboe/d) 941 900 - 960 880 - 920
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) 7.5 6.9 - 7.5 6.8 - 7.2
Upstream
Production (kboe/d) 1,811 1,750 - 1,950 1,790 - 1.890
Marketing
Sales volumes (kb/d) 2,945 2,550 - 3,050 2,600 - 3,000
Chemicals & Products
Refinery utilisation 81% 75% - 83% 74% - 78%
Chemicals utilisation 76% 72% - 80% 73% - 77%
Underlying Opex
Underlying operating expenses is a measure aimed at facilitating a comparative understanding of performance from period to period by removing the effects of identified items, which, either individually or collectively, can cause volatility, in some cases driven by external factors. For further details see the 3rd Quarter 2024 unaudited results (Link).
$ billions Q3’24 Q3’24 Adjusted Q4’24 Updated Outlook
Production and manufacturing expenses 6.1
Selling, distribution and administrative expenses 3.1
Research and development 0.3
Operating Expenses (Opex) 9.6 9.6
Less: Identified Items 0.7
Underlying Opex 8.9
of which:
Integrated Gas 1.2 1.1 1.0 - 1.2
Upstream 2.4 2.1 2.2 - 2.8
Marketing 2.8 2.7 2.4 - 2.8
Chemicals and Products 2.3 2.1 2.0 - 2.4
Renewables and Energy Solutions 0.7 0.7
Depreciation, depletion and amortisation
$ billions Q3’24 Q3’24 Adjusted Q4’24 Updated Outlook
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation 5.9 5.9
Less: Identified Items 0.3
Pre-tax depreciation (as Adjusted) 5.6
of which:
Integrated Gas 1.4 1.4 1.2 - 1.6
Upstream 2.7 2.7 2.4 - 3.1
Marketing 0.8 0.6 0.4 - 0.8
Chemicals and Products 1.0 0.9 0.8 - 1.0
Renewables and Energy Solutions 0.1 0.1
Tax Charge
$ billions Q3’24 Q3’24 Adjusted Q4’24 Updated Outlook
Taxation Charge 2.9 2.9
Less: Identified Items and Cost of supplies adjustment (0.7)
Taxation Charge (as Adjusted) 3.6
of which:
Integrated Gas 0.9 0.9 0.5 - 0.8
Upstream 2.2 2.4 2.3 - 3.1
Marketing 0.2 0.3 0.1 - 0.4
Chemicals and Products (0.1) (0.1) (0.6) - (0.1)
Renewables and Energy Solutions (0.1) —
Adjusted Earnings
The “Adjusted Earnings” measure aims to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell’s financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items. These items are in some cases driven by external factors and may, either individually or collectively, hinder the comparative understanding of Shell’s financial results from period to period. This measure excludes earnings attributable to non-controlling interest. For further details see the 3rd Quarter 2024 unaudited results (Link).
$ billions Q3’24 Q3’24 Adjusted Q4’24 Updated Outlook
Income/(loss) attributable to Shell plc shareholders 4.3 4.3
Add: Current cost of supplies adjustment attributable to Shell plc shareholders 0.5
Less: Identified items attributable to Shell plc shareholders (1.3)
Adjusted Earnings 6.0
of which:
Renewables and Energy Solutions (0.5) (0.2) (0.6) - (0.1)
Corporate (0.6) (0.6) (0.4) - (0.2)