christo1 schreef op 12 februari 2025 18:54:
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Waarschijnlijk antwoord te vinden in dit artikel van vandaag.
arcelormittal-targets-1_9b-structural-ebitda-boost-through-strategic-projects-by-2026.
CEO Aditya Mittal highlighted $2 billion of investable cash flow generated in 2024, emphasizing resilience despite unfavorable market cycles. He outlined that $1.9 billion in structural EBITDA from high-return strategic projects is anticipated, with $400 million expected in 2025 and $600 million in 2026. Recently completed projects in Brazil, Mexico, and India were noted for delivering incremental EBITDA as planned.
Mittal pointed to strategic acquisitions, including the Texas HBI facility and a stake in Vallourec, as contributors to structural earnings and cash flow growth. He reiterated the company’s commitment to shareholder returns, citing a 16% compound annual dividend growth rate over the past four years and a 37% reduction in share count through buybacks.
CFO Genuino Christino reported 2024 EBITDA of $7.1 billion and a $2.3 billion adjusted net income. He noted a 6% return on capital employed, framing the results as commendable given the challenging environment. The dividend was increased by 10% to $0.55 per share, marking an 80% rise since 2020.
Outlook
Management forecasts slightly positive apparent demand growth for 2025, with confidence in continued cash flow generation. Strategic CapEx is projected to remain between $4.5 billion and $5 billion, with flexibility to reallocate resources based on market conditions.
The company expects $400 million in EBITDA uplift from strategic projects in 2025, with significant contributions from Brazil’s Vega project, Mexico’s hot strip mill, and India’s renewable energy initiatives. Additional projects in Europe and Brazil are anticipated to ramp up and contribute further in 2026.
Financial Results
EBITDA for 2024 reached $7.1 billion, translating to $130 per ton shipped. Adjusted net income stood at $2.3 billion, with a book value of equity at $64 per share.
Over $2 billion in investable cash flow was generated in 2024, with $1.3 billion allocated to strategic growth projects and $1.7 billion returned to shareholders. M&A investments included a $0.6 billion net spend, highlighted by the Vallourec stake acquisition.
The dividend increase to $0.55 per share and continued share buybacks were positioned as evidence of financial resilience.
Q&A
Ephrem Ravi, Citigroup, asked about CapEx and decarbonization spending. CEO Mittal explained that while annual decarbonization CapEx is currently $300-$400 million, it could increase with regulatory support. He emphasized flexibility in reallocating CapEx depending on market dynamics.
Patrick Mann, Bank of America, inquired about potential impacts of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Mittal referenced past tariff impacts of $100 million per quarter but noted that revenue offsets and domestic slab production could mitigate future impacts.
Tristan Gresser, BNP Paribas, questioned delays in strategic projects. Mittal acknowledged delays in Europe’s Mardyck electrical steel facility and Brazil’s Barra Mansa project, attributing them to equipment supply issues and lack of project experience. He introduced a new global projects team to mitigate future delays.
Sentiment Analysis
Analysts expressed concerns about tariff risks, regulatory uncertainty for decarbonization, and project delays. The tone was slightly negative, reflecting skepticism about external challenges and execution risks.
Management maintained a confident tone in prepared remarks, emphasizing resilience and structural improvements. During the Q&A, responses were direct but occasionally defensive, particularly on regulatory dependencies and project execution.
Compared to Q3, management appeared more focused on addressing execution challenges and regulatory hurdles, while analysts were more pressing on capital allocation and project timelines.
Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
EBITDA per ton improved from $118 in Q3 to $130 in Q4, reflecting stronger operational performance.
Strategic project contributions increased, with completed projects in Brazil and Mexico ramping up. However, delays in Mardyck and Barra Mansa projects shifted $100 million in expected EBITDA from 2025 to 2026.
Management tone remained optimistic but more defensive in addressing regulatory and project execution concerns compared to Q3. Analysts maintained a cautious stance, with increased focus on tariff risks and decarbonization timelines.
Risks and Concerns
Tariff risks from potential U.S. trade actions against Canada and Mexico were highlighted. Management noted past revenue offsets but acknowledged uncertainty regarding future impacts.
Project execution delays, particularly in Europe and Brazil, were attributed to equipment supply issues and limited project management experience. A global projects team was established to address these challenges.
Decarbonization investments remain contingent on regulatory support, with management emphasizing the need for a clear policy framework to ensure economic viability.
Final Takeaway
ArcelorMittal demonstrated resilience in a challenging market, delivering strong cash flow and shareholder returns while advancing strategic projects. However, analysts raised concerns about execution risks, regulatory dependencies, and tariff impacts. Management’s focus on structural EBITDA growth, supported by strategic investments and operational improvements, provides confidence in the company’s long-term trajectory, though execution and external uncertainties warrant close monitoring.
Voor mij niet gelaten zo'n stijging genereert mij duizenden euro's extra winst, ik ben gelukkig persoon morgen als Amsterdam opengaat.