Een hele spannende namiddag. Onderstaande is imho belangrijk om te weten mbt de FOMC van vanmiddag. Zal zeker invloed op de U$ (USDX) hebben, dus ook olie en goudprijs. Verklaart ook waarom de €/U$ zo gezakt is (en dus o.m. goud en olie)
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Daily FX comment €-U$:
Traders expect the Federal Reserve to increase rates by 75 bps over the next eight FOMC meetings, according to overnight index swaps which measure interest rate expectations for the next twelve months.
Clearly, the most up-to-date data shows that the US economy is floundering. So will the FOMC move to cut rates anytime soon? Don’t count on it.
” Now that the FOMC is dealing with two opposing factors – rising unemployment and accelerating price growth – their decision is far more complicated. With headline CPI jumping to 5.0 percent annual pace in June – a 17-year high – and core CPI rising to a 2.4 percent annual pace, the markets are betting that the FOMC is more likely to hike interest rates in an effort to make it clear that inflation is their primary concern.
Watch What They Say, Not What They Do…
Though the FOMC is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 2.00 percent this will still be an event worth watching since the Committee’s policy statement can be just as market-moving. One key thing to watch is the vote count: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher was the sole dissenter in favor of a rate increase last time around, and if any other FOMC members join this list (such as Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser), this will likely lead traders to price in more aggressive rate increases in coming months.
Likewise, notations of “high uncertainty” regarding upside inflation risks or the “elevated state” of inflation expectations” will also lead speculation of increasing rates and thus, a US dollar rally.
On the other hand, the removal of the phrase noting higher inflation expectations or any reference to re-emerging downside risks to growth should lead the markets to price in a more neutral policy stance for the rest of the year.
In fact, with expectations for rates in the US so heavily skewed to the upside, any tapering of this sentiment would lead the US dollar sharply lower.