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Koffiekamer ~IEX~ 26-05 Flatliner

210 Posts, Pagina: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 » | Laatste

Omlaag ↓

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 14:59

aex 257 lijkt me een mooie expiratie
(de meeste call & put waardeloos aflopend nml.)

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 14:59

Trillions of Dollars of Commercial Real Estate Loans Due

This coming crisis has been highlighted many times since early this year. Trillions of dollars of loans are due and banks are unable or unwilling to provide re-financing. New York Post reports :

A trillion-dollar storm is gathering over the commercial real estate landscape that’s threatening to add further pain to an already bruised US economy.

At the center of the worries is some $3.5 trillion in debt backed by everything from strip malls to offices and apartments across the nation — the lion’s share of which is badly underwater because this recession followed a five-year commercial property boom fueled by easy money and loose underwriting standards.

Now the owners of the less-than-full malls, apartment complexes and office buildings are succumbing to the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression — because they can’t refinance the debt.

The commercial debt securitization market is dead. “Because there is no securitization the system cannot process the wave of maturities coming due,” said Scott Latham, commercial property broker at Cushman & Wakefield.

“This is arguably the most important fact we’re going to be dealing with. If there’s no mortgage market that can feed the machine you’re just not going to have deals,” he said. “It’s going to be years before we recover and even when that happens we’re going to discover that we’re in a new paradigm,” Latham added.

About $1.4 trillion in real estate debt is set to mature over the next four years, with some $204 billion coming due this year alone.

Most of that debt won’t be able to be refinanced or restructured because lending standards have tightened and commercial real estate values have cratered since last year, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Richard Parkus.

The debt behind the commercial real estate boom, commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, entails pooling together commercial mortgages in apartment buildings, shopping malls or trophy offices in different locations, packaging them into bonds and selling them to investors.

CMBS issuance reached its peak with $230 billion transactions completed in 2007. Last year, as the market was dying, a relatively anemic $12 billion in activity was seen, according to industry newsletter Commercial Mortgage Alert.

The last time the markets saw a tsunami like this one was in the late 1980s during the savings and loan crisis, when builders overwhelmed the markets with commercial supply that went vacant for years.

However, this commercial real estate crisis, fueled primarily by developers and property investors getting easy access to relatively cheap loans, may be even worse than what’s come before. That’s especially the case since Average Joes and Janes are by extension huge landlords via pensions, endowments and mutual funds — which have big commercial property exposure over the past few years.

Broadly speaking, commercial real estate values are off by as much as 40 or 50 percent by some estimates.

Bijlage:

Kopie 26 mei 2009 15:01

Hup...en weer lager.

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:02

Caseshiller lager, -18,7 % , verwacht 18,3.

bp5ah 26 mei 2009 15:07

Waardeloos volume overigens.

Gr.

Dirk

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:09

South Africa entered its first recession in 17 years as GDP fell an annualized 6.4% in Q1. Economists had expected a 3.9% drop.

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:09

Rio Tinto (RTP) agrees to a 33% cut in iron-ore prices with Nippon Steel Corp., calling it a 'realistic outcome for both parties.'

bezinteergebelegt 26 mei 2009 15:09

mmmmm, die huizenmarkt wil nog niet echt uppieeeeee, twijfel groeit, zelfs bij mij of deze standen dan wel houdbaar blijven. Ik krijg steeds meer het gevoel ( ja meer is het echt niet ) dat iets of iemand die Yanks dadelijk alsnog de Grand Canyon indonderen en wij er natuurlijk achteraan en dan kan ik helemaal gaan zwaaien naar mijn Juni calletjes. De dillemmaatjesssssss groeien en groeien

gr

B.E.G.B

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:13

S&P/Case Shiller's 20-city home price index fell 19.1% in Q1, the index's steepest quarterly decline on record and worse than the 18.7% drop expected. Still, March was only the second month in the last year-and-a-half not to post a record annual decline.

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:14

Yale's Robert Shiller warns: Britain may suffer a double recession.

business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busine...

One of the world's most influential economists warns today that Britain faces the prospect of two recessions in quick succession.

Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, said that the recent stock market bounce should be treated with caution.

He likened the current sense of optimism to a marital row. “You don't know whether the argument with your wife is really over or not. Is the problem something that your spouse will bring up again, and again?”

The apparent upturn could soon go into reverse, he told The Times, marking a repeat of economic patterns in the 1930s and the 1980s. Such a double-dip slowdown has been nicknamed by economists a “W-shaped” recession, where recovery is so fragile, the country could be plunged into another slowdown as soon as it emerged from the last.

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:15

Gegeven putjes 200 met 5 cent verlies toch weer aangekocht (positie: 0). Denk dat de vs nog wel een extra schepje erbij kan doen aankomende opening. Zal wel brr worden om 15.30 ; dus
Vaste put positie loopt nu eindelijk als een trein, nu we de initiele aankooporder (de allereerste) ook voorbij zijn.

Bij 240 ga ik toch opnieuw schrijven :D

Brievenbus 26 mei 2009 15:16

We zijn wel weer op vertrouwd terrein, met Amsterdam als negatieve uitschieter....

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:22

negatieve uitschieter?
DAX -2,02%
AEX -1,87%

+ Amsterdam heeft de afgelopen dagen beter gescoord.

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:23

quote:
SuperBeer29 schreef:
Gegeven putjes 200 met 5 cent verlies toch weer aangekocht (positie: 0). Denk dat de vs nog wel een extra schepje erbij kan doen aankomende opening. Zal wel brr worden om 15.30 ; dus
Vaste put positie loopt nu eindelijk als een trein, nu we de initiele aankooporder (de allereerste) ook voorbij zijn.

Bij 240 ga ik toch opnieuw schrijven :D

wat is je verwachting voor de komende uren?

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:28

kom, doet s ff snel 1 puntje zakken!!!

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:29

Consumer confidence US over een half uur.

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:29

Volgens mij gaan er nu diverse steunen aan gort.
Hup, zakken maar.

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:33

Amid a sharp GDP contraction in Q1, Germany's exports slumped 9.7%, while corporate investment fell 7.9%.

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601...

p.s. cijfers zijn gewoon grrrrrrrrrruwelijk...

Brievenbus 26 mei 2009 15:35

USG 5% er af op 200.000 stukjes; dit is al tijden aan de gang in A'dam, op omzet omhoog, op gekruimel omlaag.

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2009 15:36

USA blijft wel heel goed liggen..hmm.

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