Koffiekamer « Terug naar discussie overzicht

2009/2010 : TOTAL economic MELTDOWN

6.165 Posts, Pagina: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 ... 305 306 307 308 309 » | Laatste

Omlaag ↓

[verwijderd] 5 november 2009 22:56

" China and America are now shifting all the pain of adjustment, on the rest of the developed world."

Niall Ferguson Discusses U.S. Dollar, Fed Policy Outlook: Video.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q_GC23atxQ

[verwijderd] 5 november 2009 22:56

Medal of Honor: Professor David Colander Tells Congress Econ Models are Flawed.

“Most people assume economists are searching for truth. In reality, economists are searching to achieve certain institutional goals like getting tenure, publishing articles, or doing a whole variety of things which may be related to truth.”

Damien: When you testified and said the models are too rigid in the face of unpredictable human behavior constantly changing in real time, was that too scary for legislators whose role in society is to increase order and reduce chaos ?

David: I hope not because that’s reality. If reality is too scary, maybe some people think we have to hide it. I don’t consider that especially scary at all. It’s just a statement of common sense and the reality of what we know.

As opposed to moving on after discovering problems with the models, economists continued looking at the same model. Perhaps they did so to avoid the scary dimensions that would have all kinds of results happening.

wallstcheatsheet.com/knowledge/medal-...

[verwijderd] 5 november 2009 22:57

Watch The Distortions (UIC Data).

The unemployment claim release looked good. Here's the headline:

In the week ending Oct. 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 512,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 532,000.

Sounds good, right ? So does this:

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct. 24 was 5,749,000, a decrease of 68,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,817,000.

Now let's talk truth:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 480,178 in the week ending Oct. 31, a decrease of 14,216 from the previous week. There were 466,341 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.

The rate of firing is higher than it was this week last year - a really, really bad time, if you remember. This was immediately post-Lehman and AIG, when firms were shedding employees like water off a duck's back.

So why the disconnect ?

States reported 3,459,148 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Oct. 17, an increase of 90,239 from the prior week.

68,000 people came off the rolls and found jobs, right ?

Wrong.

90,239 fell off the government's "official statistics" and rolled into "extended programs." That means that net-on-net the picture got worse by 22,239.

It gets even better than this, however, as we are now far enough into the mess that people are rolling off even the extended benefit programs in many states! There is no current tabulation of that count, but any number greater than zero simply adds to the malaise.

The bottom line:

* Unemployment continues to get worse, not better. The "official" numbers used for the headline don't count you once you "roll off" the original unemployment program - "extended benefits" and those who have rolled off even the extended programs are not counted as "continuing claims."

* More people were fired the last week of October this year than were fired the last week of October last year, and last year was directly in the blast zone from Lehman and AIG.

You want to cheer these numbers ?

The market might, but Main Street, where most of us live (myself included) has a somewhat different view.

market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/...

[verwijderd] 5 november 2009 23:17

Roubini Says Bank Mergers May Create `Bigger Monster'
www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=...

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 14:06

Meer bedrijven failliet in Duitsland.

WIESBADEN - De economische crisis houdt nog steeds huis onder het bedrijfsleven in Duitsland. In augustus steeg het aantal Duitse bedrijven dat bankroet ging met 12,3 procent tot 2619 in vergelijking met een jaar eerder. Dat maakte het Duitse federale bureau voor de statistiek vrijdag bekend.
Over de eerste acht maanden van dit jaar nam het aantal faillissementen van Duitse bedrijven ten opzichte van vorig jaar met 15,5 procent toe tot 21.807. Economen verwachten dat de komende maanden nog meer bedrijven over de kop zullen gaan, ondanks het lichte economische herstel in Duitsland. (ANP)

www.ad.nl/ad/nl/1004/Economie/article...

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 14:07

Fannie Mae Posts Loss, Plans to Sell Tax Credits.

A third-quarter net loss of $18.9 billion pushed Fannie Mae to request its fourth draw on a $200 billion government lifeline, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing today.

Fannie Mae, which owns or guarantees more than 20 percent of the $12 trillion U.S. home-loan market, has been hobbled by a three-year housing slump that has wiped 28 percent off home values nationwide and led to record foreclosures.

Fannie Mae, which posted $101.6 billion in losses over the previous eight quarters, has already taken $44.9 billion in federal aid since April.

The amount of nonperforming loans that Fannie Mae guarantees for other investors rose to $163.9 billion from $144.2 billion in the second quarter, according to the filing. Fannie Mae also owned $34.2 billion in non-performing loans as of Sept. 30, up from $26.3 billion in the second quarter.

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsa...

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 14:09

14.30 uur: riemen vast!

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 14:14

There you go........

Leningen modificeren en ze moeten de verliezen erkennen en dan blijkt dat ze er erg slecht voor staan !

En om de ellende te stoppen zullen ze wel moeten, maar dat gebeurd niet en dus gaat de ellende in de Amerikaanse huizenmarkt gewoon verder.

Fannie Mae posts $18.9 billion Q3 loss, taps Treasury.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fannie Mae, the largest provider of funding for U.S. home loans, said on Thursday bad mortgages and a federal foreclosure prevention program left it with a $18.9 billion loss, forcing it to tap the Treasury again to plug a hole in its net worth.

Fannie Mae (FNM.P) (FNM.N) , seized by the government last year, said the quarterly loss stemmed from $22 billion in credit-related expenses. These included charges on mortgages it bought out of securities as it modified loans under President Barack Obama's foreclosure prevention plan.

Under the program, mortgage companies are urged to refinance or modify loans for homeowners facing foreclosure. But the program also means that Fannie Mae and rival Freddie Mac, which guarantee a vast portion of U.S. mortgages, must extract the loans from securities and often recognize a loss.

www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/...

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 14:24

Skint? Britain's financial crisis is much, much worse than that.

The budget crisis is a crisis of government – and the public sector is at fault, says Adrian Montague.

"Skint" is actually an understatement. We haven't just run out of money as a nation. We are building up debts that, without brave action, will keep us skint for years to come. The scale of government spending is so great that numbers almost lose their meaning. Who can picture £175 billion – the Chancellor's current estimate of what he needs to borrow this year ?

But we can get a sense of the gravity of the situation when we think that this amount of borrowing is nearly twice the level that forced the UK to seek the support of the IMF in the 1970s.

But if a government chooses to take the route of higher taxes, that would only be the beginning. Even doubling the basic rate of income tax would raise only £80 billion. And extra taxes drive people abroad and feed tax avoidance. Even higher taxes would be needed. This is a nightmare vision, in which our common hopes of a prosperous, enterprising, secure economy would be indefinitely postponed.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/p...

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 14:32

Unemployment rate hits 10.2% in October

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. unemployment rate climbed to 10.2% in October, topping the 10% mark for the first time in 26 years, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls dropped by 190,000 in October, bringing to total number of jobs lost in the recession to 7.3 million. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were forecasting a rise in the unemployment rate to 10%, with 150,000 lost payroll jobs. The unemployment rate of 10.2% was the highest since April 1983. An alternative gauge of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 17.5%, the highest on record dating to 1995.

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 15:29

Q & A.

Q : Waarom lijken de bedrijfscijfers en order cijfers goed te zijn, terwijl de werkloosheid oploopt en de consumenten minder uitgegeven ?

A : Er komen steeds minder bedrijven en dus zullen de nog overgebleven bedrijven meer werk hebben.

Q : Is dat dan een goed teken ?

A : Natuurlijk niet, er komen steeds minder mensen die nog geld hebben om te consumeren.

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 17:01

Banenrapport verwart beurzen

De beurzen zijn wereldwijd bezig aan een volatiele dag. De aandelenmarkten weten niet goed wat te denken van het Amerikaanse banenrapport. Daaruit bleek bleek dat er in oktober 192.000 jobs verloren zijn gegaan, fors meer dan de verwachte 175.000 stuks. De werkloosheidsgraad kwam voor het eerst sinds 1983 boven de 10 procent uit. In Brussel maakt Tessenderlo Chemie een flinke uitschuiver.

(tijd) - 'Het is moeilijk om te zien hoe de Fed, of wie dan ook, dit een goed banenrapport kan vinden', stelt ING-econoom Rob Carnell in een reactie. Hij ziet weinig redenen voor optimisme.
www.tijd.be/nieuws/markten/Banenrappo...

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 18:38

Harris Calls Jobs Data `Backward Step' for U.S. Economy
www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=...

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 21:22

Report: Foreclosure activity up in October
southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflo...

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 21:28

Credit problems rising for Georgia banks
atlanta.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stori...

Reacting to Roubini's Predictions: The Economy, Dollar Carry-Trade, Housing
seekingalpha.com/article/171730-react...

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 21:40

What to buy after the next crash
www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice/s...

Jobless total may be much worse
www.shieldsgazette.com/news/Jobless-t...

[verwijderd] 6 november 2009 21:49

oepsakee ?

3,5 % groei en niemand die geld uitgeeft ? ;)

Consumer debt drops for record eighth straight month.
Credit-card balances sink at 10% annual pace in the quarter.

www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-de...

alles gaat goed, ge voelt dat toch ook ? hahaha

[verwijderd] 7 november 2009 00:05

Correction Coming in this 70s Retro Rally: Charts Published: Friday, 6 Nov 2009 | 6:40 AM ET

By: Kirsten Bennett, Special to CNBC.com

The current market rally will stop in the next few days, a correction of at least 3 weeks will follow, but stocks will rebound and finish high in 2010, independent trader Bill McLaren said Friday.

www.cnbc.com/id/33713009/print/1/disp...

[verwijderd] 8 november 2009 13:10

Consumer Credit: Awful

Where are my green shoots ?

Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 6 percent in the third quarter of 2009. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 10 percent, and nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-3/4 percent. In September, consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 7-1/4 percent.

Yuck.

Here's the graphical representation.

We are a credit-based system, as are all modern monetary systems. No meaningful economic recovery can or will occur until the consumer has purged his balance sheet of the inappropriate debt he has and is once again able to earn and borrow.

If we supposedly exited the recession on or before September, it sure isn't apparent in this report. You can put a fork in that line of garbage - it's done.

market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/...

[verwijderd] 8 november 2009 13:25

Economic activity is dropping by something closer to 20% annually.

Then there's the little matter of the Federal Reserve (we know they're not really 'federal;' but that's another discussion) which put out the Consumer Debt Report on Friday. The scary fact is that consumer debt is dropping at a 7.2% annual rate.
But no one is writing yet about what this really means and why? Because it's disastrous - that's why!
When you look at the Fed numbers, you'll see the consumer is dropping debt at the fastest rate since 2004 on their report. Yep. Consumers have gone on vacation - and still no one on Wall Street has figured out the obvious implications of crashing consumer spending.

Here's a hint: The Second Depression is picking up speed.
That means that real economic growth is likely negative something like 11% - which (hate to tell you this) is why the unemployment rate just ticked past 10.2% (officially) this week.
But even worse? What if the Shadow Government Stats site which only has BLS figures in their calculator through August of 2009 is right - what if the August 2008 to August of 2009 BLS number is right and inflation is running (better have a nitro pill ready for this one) 14.94%.

THAT means that the true decline of economic activity will be -7.2% and then we discount those dollars by the annualized inflation change.- which means economic activity is dropping by something closer to 20% annually.

Saturday November 7, 2009,

urbansurvival.com/week.htm

6.165 Posts, Pagina: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 ... 305 306 307 308 309 » | Laatste

Aantal posts per pagina: 20 50 100 | Omhoog ↑

Meedoen aan de discussie?

Word nu gratis lid of log in met uw e-mailadres en wachtwoord.

Direct naar Forum

Markt vandaag

AEX 919,26 -3,49 -0,38% 20 mrt


Germany40^	22.965,80	-0,15%
BEL 20	4.487,84	-0,26%
Europe50^	5.449,68	-0,02%
US30^	41.975,60	0,00%
Nasd100^	19.687,40	0,00%
US500^	5.664,36	0,00%
Japan225^	37.694,60	0,00%
Gold spot	3.036,16	-0,32%
EUR/USD	1,0853	-0,52%
WTI	68,33	0,00%