Crucell « Terug naar discussie overzicht

wk 5 1 februari t/m 5 februari 2010

81 Posts, Pagina: 1 2 3 4 5 » | Laatste
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eerst even terugkomen op het bericht uit de eerste week over de stelling dat januari richtinggevend zou zijn voor het hele jaar. Als dat juist is luidt het vooruitzicht een voortkabbelend jaar met een wat hoger slot ultimo 2010, we begonnen immers met € 13,90 en staan nu een paar centen hoger. Niet om over van (!) huis te schrijven en veel minder dan de traditioneel hoge verwachtingen van de forumleden, met een gemiddelde eindejaarsverwachting (als ik de extreme schattingen van boven de € 100 even weg laat) van € 24,50.
Nee dan het koersverloop van januari van Galapagos van € 8,20 tot € 10,55 (+28,7%). Iedereen destijds geluisterd naar het advies om gelet op het kleine belang via Crucell dan maar zelf wat meer aandelen Galapagos te gaan houden? Maar snel weer terug naar Crucell, straks wordt ik voor een Crucell – èn een Galapagos pumper gehouden. (disclaimer: ik heb posities in Crucell en Galapagos en ik koop nog steeds bij.)

In hetzelfde eerste draadje van het jaar sprak ik behalve de beste wensen aan allen hier de wens uit voor de moderator op een rustiger jaar. Die wens is in ieder geval nu al gedoemd niet uit te komen. Hans roept (oftewel Callhans!) op tot nog meer moderatoractie, ik weet het niet. Duidelijk is wel dat de ingreep per verwijderd bericht weinig effect sorteert. Menig interessant draadje sterft thans een niet eens zo stille dood in discussies over non-issues of te veel verwijderde berichten. Misschien heeft Hans gelijk en helpt een rechtstreekse e-mail van de moderator aan degenen van wie veel berichten verwijderd schijnen te moeten worden wel, persoonlijk roep ik liever de forumgenoten op om wat vaker op de handen te zitten en niet direct te gaan typen. Bij de verwijderde e-mails zit toch menig van oud-gedienden die regelmatig genoeg interessante info of visies hier deelt, ik mag hopen dat een nog actievere moderator niet leidt tot een kaalslag onder vaste posters.

Slot Amsterdam € 14,09, + € 0,27/ +2,0%, Slot NY $ 19,40, is + US$ 0,07, omgerekend € 13,99 (vorige week € 13,69/ $ 19,33).

Allen weer veel geluk, wijsheid en geduld toegewenst!
jecebe
0
quote:

Kelewan schreef:

ik mag hopen dat een nog actievere moderator niet leidt tot een kaalslag onder vaste posters.


Allen weer veel geluk, wijsheid en geduld toegewenst!

Ab kelewan.
Vraag me af of er nog nederlanders zijn met ballen.
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quote:

jecebe schreef:

[quote=Kelewan]

ik mag hopen dat een nog actievere moderator niet leidt tot een kaalslag onder vaste posters.


Allen weer veel geluk, wijsheid en geduld toegewenst!

[/quote]

Ab kelewan.
Vraag me af of er nog nederlanders zijn met ballen.
Je mag niet voelen !
jecebe
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quote:

gocrucellgo schreef:

Je mag niet voelen !
Gelukkig maar.
Gat in de markt voor Crucell, vaccin tegen huilerigheid, theeleuteren en kleutergedrag.

Op basis van PerC6 moet dit snel te ontwikkelen zijn en met behulp van Star in grote volumes aan te maken.

Hoewel??

aossa
1
quote:

jecebe schreef:

[quote=gocrucellgo]

Je mag niet voelen !
[/quote]

Gelukkig maar.
Gat in de markt voor Crucell, vaccin tegen huilerigheid, theeleuteren en kleutergedrag.

Op basis van PerC6 moet dit snel te ontwikkelen zijn en met behulp van Star in grote volumes aan te maken.

Hoewel??
Opgeven voor de tests zou ik zeggen! Is gemakkelijk verdienen:

/quote
Ik zit er aan te denken mee te doen aan een medicijnentest bij Pharma bio research. Het gaat om een middel voor depressiviteit.
Je blijft dan 18 dagen overnachten daar en je verdient 2200 bruto./

Meer weten?
volunteer.praintl.com/NL/
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Performing as expected as we go into the final week before 4Q and FY09 results.

Stock is 4% off its 52 week closing low, and 25% off its 52 week closing high. Breakdown coming, just waiting for the poor 2009 results and no-guidance 2010 CC...then it is a race to a new 52 week low.

At least most of the posters here agree this stock is dead in the water for the next couple of years. The only thing that could reverse this trend is a change in leadership...or management keeping their word about "biggest deal ever" and some partnerships with TB and Malaria...without diluting shares like they did with J+J.
MeawandMoo1
4
quote:

ronbanged2 schreef:

At least most of the posters here agree this stock is dead in the water for the next couple of years.
I am trying to count the number of posters who agrees this stock is dead in the water for the next couple of years.

Please help me out who those persons are.

Thanks in advance.
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Ron, do you agree that even a minor share buy back would revitalize the shareprice?

72k traded so far today. Nobody seems to care about Crucell anymore.
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quote:

ronbanged2 schreef:

...or management keeping their word about "biggest deal ever"
What 'word(s)' dit they actually give then?
In other words, can you state what management actually promised us, to which we can keep them accountable. Please give quotes and links.
TIA.
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Ik ben blij dat ik mijn aandelen Crucell heb omgeruild in geschreven puts. Op de langzaam leeglopende 14,50 feb10 maak ik tenminste nog enig rendement, terwijl de deep ITM puts op langere termijn mijn verzekering tegen verrassingen vormt. Het aldus vrijgemaakte kapitaal rendeert elders in ieder geval wel.

Kennelijk zijn er toch meer Crucell beleggers die er zo over denken want er zijn dagen dat er bijna meer in opties wordt gehandeld dan in de aandelen zelf.
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quote:

xynix schreef:

Ron, do you agree that even a minor share buy back would revitalize the shareprice?

72k traded so far today. Nobody seems to care about Crucell anymore.
Agree with the second part, nobody does seem to care about the stock anymore...thank you Ronald Brus.

The lie is that J+J paid 20.67 euro for shares of Crucell...there were many on this board who stated this was dishonest 5 minutes after they announced it.

Share buybacks are usually a sign that management doesn't know what to do with cash on hand. I would have to agree with that too. The only upside to a share buyback is that it is less money Brus can spend on spa treatments and Swiss boat parties.

Your proposal may seem fine on paper, and it may help stabilize the price short term, but look-out if the 4Q report and 2010 estimates are weak, then sellers will be daring Crucell to step up to the plate and buy shares.
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quote:

maxen schreef:

[quote=ronbanged2]
...or management keeping their word about "biggest deal ever"
[/quote]
What 'word(s)' dit they actually give then?
In other words, can you state what management actually promised us, to which we can keep them accountable. Please give quotes and links.
TIA.
"Biggest deal ever" speaks for itself." It means they will make a ton of money by living up to the requirements of the deal...which they never do. I agree with management, if they actually performed, every one of these deals could send Crucell to all time highs...but they never get their shit together and live up to the hype of Microsoft of Biotech...unless they mean the Microsoft that put out Zune. Ebola...phase I forever, FluCell...every other cell based flu vaccine flew through trials without a hitch...Instead of better faster cheaper...Sanofi declared it Worser, slower, and more expensiver, Medimmune...nothing...not a peep...no milestones...no hint of anything, Wyeth...mystery deal...WTF , J+J...still waiting...but the sale of the future of the stock to J+J was unwise no matter what.

But the bottom line is you are right, they can't be held accountable because they never actually explain what they have to do to make these "biggest deals ever" into the biggest deals ever.
[verwijderd]
2
quote:

ronbanged2 schreef:

[quote=maxen]
[quote=ronbanged2]
...or management keeping their word about "biggest deal ever"
[/quote]
What 'word(s)' dit they actually give then?
In other words, can you state what management actually promised us, to which we can keep them accountable. Please give quotes and links.
TIA.
[/quote]
"Biggest deal ever" speaks for itself." It means they will make a ton of money by living up to the requirements of the deal...which they never do.
....
But the bottom line is you are right, they can't be held accountable because they never actually explain what they have to do to make these "biggest deals ever" into the biggest deals ever.
Ok, so you agree that the ONLY thing management stated is signing "the biggest deal ever".

Obviously, the only thing "biggest deal ever" means, that, at the time of signing the POTENTIAL amount of money brought in by the deal is larger than any of those deals signed before by Crucell. Nothing more, nothing less. No promises on when, what or chance of success.
So, at the time of signing, they already made up on the statement. Better put, they correctly stated that they signed the 'biggest deal ever' AFTER they signed it. So they were 100% correct, and don't need to be questioned on that anymore.

ANOTHER question, much more interesting obviously, is of course: how are things going with this deal? What is the timeline? How far are we in the developing phase? At what points does get Crucell get milestones. When is the actual product ready for launch, so that the real money is coming in? This could obviously be years away. NO-ONE promised you otherwise!. NO-ONE promised you the royalties flowing in in the first 1,2,3, 4 or even 5 years. So please stop ranting about the timeframe, since no promises were made.

I guess we DO agree that it is awkward that we don't know anything about this biggest deal ever.
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Dat er progress is op het gebied van de Wyeth-deal, blijkt oa uit de impairment reversals: 1e kwart 2008 en recentelijk nog het 3e kwart 2009. Volgens mij hadden die allebei direct verband met het weer ingebruiknemen van eerder stilgelegde gebouwen (Aerugen ontwikkelingstop) ten faveure van Wyeth-deal.
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0
quote:

maxen schreef:

[quote=ronbanged2]
[quote=maxen]
[quote=ronbanged2]
...or management keeping their word about "biggest deal ever"
[/quote]
What 'word(s)' dit they actually give then?
In other words, can you state what management actually promised us, to which we can keep them accountable. Please give quotes and links.
TIA.
[/quote]
"Biggest deal ever" speaks for itself." It means they will make a ton of money by living up to the requirements of the deal...which they never do.
....
But the bottom line is you are right, they can't be held accountable because they never actually explain what they have to do to make these "biggest deals ever" into the biggest deals ever.
[/quote]
Ok, so you agree that the ONLY thing management stated is signing "the biggest deal ever".

Obviously, the only thing "biggest deal ever" means, that, at the time of signing the POTENTIAL amount of money brought in by the deal is larger than any of those deals signed before by Crucell. Nothing more, nothing less. No promises on when, what or chance of success.
So, at the time of signing, they already made up on the statement. Better put, they correctly stated that they signed the 'biggest deal ever' AFTER they signed it. So they were 100% correct, and don't need to be questioned on that anymore.

ANOTHER question, much more interesting obviously, is of course: how are things going with this deal? What is the timeline? How far are we in the developing phase? At what points does get Crucell get milestones. When is the actual product ready for launch, so that the real money is coming in? This could obviously be years away. NO-ONE promised you otherwise!. NO-ONE promised you the royalties flowing in in the first 1,2,3, 4 or even 5 years. So please stop ranting about the timeframe, since no promises were made.

I guess we DO agree that it is awkward that we don't know anything about this biggest deal ever.

I'm glad you agree with me that Crucell management has kept Crucell shareholders deliberately in the dark regarding almost everything regarding the 4 biggest deals ever.

He looks you in the eye, as he runs his hand through his curly gelled hair, and he says "You know, trust me, you know. Soon very soon, it will be, you know, the biggest, you know, deal ever. We are building, you know, shareholder value, not defined by the PPS going up, but by, you know, the certainty that we, you know, the management are secure in their jobs, salaries and perks. Thank, you know, you...Back to Oya."
[verwijderd]
0
quote:

ronbanged2 schreef:

[quote=maxen]
[quote=ronbanged2]
[quote=maxen]
[quote=ronbanged2]
...or management keeping their word about "biggest deal ever"
[/quote]
What 'word(s)' dit they actually give then?
In other words, can you state what management actually promised us, to which we can keep them accountable. Please give quotes and links.
TIA.
[/quote]
"Biggest deal ever" speaks for itself." It means they will make a ton of money by living up to the requirements of the deal...which they never do.
....
But the bottom line is you are right, they can't be held accountable because they never actually explain what they have to do to make these "biggest deals ever" into the biggest deals ever.
[/quote]
Ok, so you agree that the ONLY thing management stated is signing "the biggest deal ever".

Obviously, the only thing "biggest deal ever" means, that, at the time of signing the POTENTIAL amount of money brought in by the deal is larger than any of those deals signed before by Crucell. Nothing more, nothing less. No promises on when, what or chance of success.
So, at the time of signing, they already made up on the statement. Better put, they correctly stated that they signed the 'biggest deal ever' AFTER they signed it. So they were 100% correct, and don't need to be questioned on that anymore.

ANOTHER question, much more interesting obviously, is of course: how are things going with this deal? What is the timeline? How far are we in the developing phase? At what points does get Crucell get milestones. When is the actual product ready for launch, so that the real money is coming in? This could obviously be years away. NO-ONE promised you otherwise!. NO-ONE promised you the royalties flowing in in the first 1,2,3, 4 or even 5 years. So please stop ranting about the timeframe, since no promises were made.

I guess we DO agree that it is awkward that we don't know anything about this biggest deal ever.

[/quote]
I'm glad you agree with me that Crucell management has kept Crucell shareholders deliberately in the dark regarding almost everything regarding the 4 biggest deals ever.

He looks you in the eye, as he runs his hand through his curly gelled hair, and he says "You know, trust me, you know. Soon very soon, it will be, you know, the biggest, you know, deal ever. We are building, you know, shareholder value, not defined by the PPS going up, but by, you know, the certainty that we, you know, the management are secure in their jobs, salaries and perks. Thank, you know, you...Back to Oya."
The street is telling different stories:
$19,84= E14,28.
A dime a day up till 9 februari then $1 buck a day
Sleep well princes!
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quote:

babylon schreef:

The street is telling different stories:
$19,84= E14,28.
Heb je ook de volumes gezien waarmee dat piekje aan het eind van de handel werd behaald?! Drie keer niks.
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1
quote:

xynix schreef:

[quote=babylon]
The street is telling different stories:
$19,84= E14,28.
[/quote]
Heb je ook de volumes gezien waarmee dat piekje aan het eind van de handel werd behaald?! Drie keer niks.
Bovendien ging de hele US beurs up,
voorbeeldjes biotech:
dendreon +5.5%,
genvec +7.19%
vical +3.19%
crxl +2.27%
dus waarschijnlijk niks aan de hand.
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2
quote:

xynix schreef:

[quote=babylon]
The street is telling different stories:
$19,84= E14,28.
[/quote]
Heb je ook de volumes gezien waarmee dat piekje aan het eind van de handel werd behaald?! Drie keer niks.
Logisch toch. Tegen deze koers is het aandeel nu wel uitverkocht.Bio tech en farma zitten nu in de lift en Crucell maakt het ritje omhoog straks dubbel zo hard mee.
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Misschien dat het volgende ook weer wat fantasie in het potentieel van crucell brengt.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) signaled its ongoing strong interest in the vaccines space Friday by announcing a deal with Intercell (INRLF.PK), over the Austrian company’s portfolio of products delivered through a skin patch. The lead candidate is in phase III trials for travellers’ diarrhoea.

Sales of vaccines are forecast to grow 9% a year from 2008 to 2014 to be worth $28.76 billion and the UK pharma giant is definitely a dominant player, the tables below show. Still, this deal represents a big step towards innovation in vaccine delivery, with few advances having been made beyond injections and oral formulations.

Top 10 Therapeutic Categories WW annual sales ($m)
Rank Therapeutic Class 2008 2014 CAGR (08-14) Total Change (08-14)
1 Anti-diabetics 24,882 40,274 8% 15,391
2 Anti-neoplastic MAbs 17,093 29,870 10% 12,777
3 Anti-virals 20,004 29,582 7% 9,578
4 Vaccines 16,939 28,763 9% 11,824
5 Anti-rheumatics 16,352 28,630 10% 12,278
6 Anti-hyperlipidaemics 29,546 23,132 (4%) (6,415)
7 Other cytostatics 7,158 16,266 15% 9,109
8 Angiotensin II antagonists 20,792 14,366 (6%) (6,426)
9 MS Therapies 8,650 13,618 8% 4,968
10 Anti-bacterials 15,917 13,606 (3%) (2,311)


Under the deal, Glaxo will pay €33.6 million ($49.4 million) upfront and up to €84 million on top, through a staggered shareholding purchase option of up to 5% in Intercell, and gains global rights to the travellers' vaccine. Novartis (NVS) already has a 15% stake in the company, so if Glaxo chooses to take up its equity option the company will be in the somewhat unique position of having two big pharma shareholders.

The deal covered the diarrhoea patch, a single application pandemic influenza vaccine in phase II, and other potential future patch vaccines.

The diarrhoea patch is designed with travellers and military personnel in mind, to protect against illness linked to enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC), the most common cause of diarrhoea. A phase III trial recently started which will recruit 1,800 people travelling from Europe to Mexico and Guatemala, and results should be available in 2011.

Analysts have pencilled in sales of $75 million for the product by 2014, following a launch in 2012, according to consensus data from EvaluatePharma.

Morgan Stanley analysts wrote recently that they believe the product has peak sales of €135 million, whilst Jefferies is even more optimistic, pencilling in €450m. Previously they were anticipating “conservative” €100 million deal terms.

Crucell (CRXL) already has a similar vaccine on the market, Dukoral, indicated to prevent GI tract infections and cholera, and which comes in a drinkable form. Jefferies calculated this product achieved 15% penetration amongst Swedish and Norwegian travellers, and the analysts believe this sort of penetration is also likely for the Intercell product.

Still, the product is on the small size for Glaxo, therefore the move also highlights big pharma’s growing interest in niche offerings.

However, the deal is also largely about the broader applicability of the patch technology that Intercell has developed, called the vaccine enhancement patch (VE Patch) which has been shown to enhance the effect of injected vaccines.

For example, the VE Patch which came with the deal, designed to be used alongside a pandemic flu injection, enhanced the immune response after only a single dose, resulting in a seroconversion rate of 70 percent, meeting the FDA and EMEA standard for approval of a pandemic influenza vaccine.

The companies believe this holds the potential to expand limited vaccine supplies by allowing fewer or lower doses of vaccines. As one of the biggest makers of the shots being sent around the world in the current flu outbreak, Glaxo’s interest in the field is understandable.

Succes allen
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