Indian Steel Demand to Improve in H2 - Crisil
Ratings agency Crisil in its latest research report said that domestic steel demand and global market sentiment is likely to improve in the second half, but a weak first half is expected to lead to a 5-6% contraction in realisations for steel makers this fiscal. Falling spreads on earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortization will weigh on steel sector capex adding that the industry is yet to see a recovery in prices despite a run-up in raw material costs. It said that "Global steel prices dropped 13% in the first eight months of 2019 due to weak demand, unseasonal jump in global inventory levels of upto nearly 35% through August and trade tensions. This was despite a whopping 56% run-up in global iron ore prices during the same period. The report added that "Steel prices in India mirrored the trend, falling 10% from INR 42,000 per tonne in January to INR 38,000 per tonne in August 2019,"
Crisil said “Not surprisingly, Indian steel manufacturers’ earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation spreads contracted 420 basis points (bps) on year in the first quarter of fiscal 2020. The contraction was more for large non-integrated players, at 470 bps. To add to it, subdued domestic demand and weak export markets cloud the industry’s prospects in the rest of this fiscal as well," the Crisil report said. After a robust 7.5 to 8% growth in the previous two fiscals, the domestic steel industry is expected to witness a mid-cycle slowdown at 4-5% this fiscal, given muted construction investments and weak automotive market.”
Mr Prasad Koparkar, senior director, CRISIL Research said that “Steel prices have not been able to recover despite a cost push. We therefore believe weak realisations will shear 350-370 bps off the sector’s Ebitda margins for the first half and 200-250 bps for the fiscal as a whole, reversing a three-year climb. Large non-integrated players will see their margins shrink more, by 300-350 bps this fiscal, given weak flat steel market and a 3 to 5% rise in iron ore prices amidst weak realizations."
Source : Strategic Research Institute