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FEBRUARY 7, 2020 / 12:34 PM / UPDATED 4 HOURS AGO
ArcelorMittal, commissioners extend talks on Italy's Ilva plant: lawyer

MILAN (Reuters) - ArcelorMittal (MT.AS) and commissioners of the Ilva steelworks in southern Italy have agreed to extend talks to the end of the month after making progress towards a possible deal to buy the plant, a lawyer for the company said on Friday.

The world’s biggest steelmaker had tried to walk away from a 2018 deal after parliament scrapped a guarantee of legal immunity from prosecution over environmental risks during a clean-up of the heavily polluting factory.

But the steelmaker has since returned to discussions.

“Negotiations between the two parties have made a significant step forward and set a new deadline to Feb. 28,” ArcelorMittal lawyer Ferdinando Emanuele told reporters.

The future of the plant has been a headache to successive Italian governments, which have faced the challenge of balancing the need to clean up years of environmental damage with protecting thousands of jobs in the economically struggling south.

A Milan court was scheduled to discuss on Friday a government bid to stop ArcelorMittal’s withdrawal from the plant, but the hearing has been postponed to March 6 in order to let the two parties reach a final deal, the lawyer added.

Asked if ArcelorMittal could still walk away from Europe’s biggest steel plant, the lawyer said: “I’m not aware. We’re here to negotiate”.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government and ArcelorMittal agreed last year to develop a new industrial plan for the site that employs about 8.200 workers in the city of Taranto.

Reporting by Emilio Alfredo Faieta; Writing by Emilio Parodi; Editing by Edmund Blair

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

www.reuters.com/article/us-arcelormit...
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ArcelorMittal SA (MT) CEO Lakshmi Mittal on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Feb. 6, 2020 3:24 PM ET | About: ArcelorMittal (MT), AMSYF
Q4: 02-06-20 Earnings Summary
Press Release Slides
EPS of $-0.2213 beats by $0.24 Revenue of $15.51B (-15.35% Y/Y) misses by $-361.7M
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Earning Call Audio
ArcelorMittal SA (NYSE:MT) Q4 2019 Earnings Conference Call February 6, 2020 9:30 AM ET

Company Participants

Daniel Fairclough - Head, IR & VP, Corporate Finance

Lakshmi Mittal - Chairman & CEO

Genuíno Christino - Head, Group Finance & VP

Aditya Mittal - President & Group CFO

Conference Call Participants

Jason Fairclough - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Alain Gabriel - Morgan Stanley

Luke Nelson - JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Carsten Riek - Crédit Suisse

Philip Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Seth Rosenfeld - Exane BNP Paribas

Alan Spence - Jefferies

Rochus Brauneiser - Kepler Cheuvreux

Myles Allsop - UBS Investment Bank

Christian Andre - Societe Generale

Bastian Synagowitz - Deutsche Bank

Francisco José Rodríguez Sánchez - Banco de Sabadell.

Daniel Fairclough

Thank you. Hi, good afternoon and good morning, everybody. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. This morning, we published our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2019 alongside the Q&A document and a detailed presentation with speaker notes. So the intention of today's call is not to go through that presentation again, but move directly to your questions that you may have. So the whole call today should last about 45 minutes. [Operator Instructions].

With that brief opening, I will hand over to our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Mittal.

Lakshmi Mittal

Thank you, Daniel. Good day and welcome, everyone. I'm joined on today's call by Adit Mittal, President and CFO; Simon Wandke Head of Mining; Genuino, Head of Finance; and Daniel, of course you know.

Before we answer your questions, I would like to begin with a few remarks. As always, I will start by commenting on our health and safety performance. Our lost time injury frequency rate in 2019 was 1.21x, a deterioration compared with 2018, predominantly due to the inclusion of ArcelorMittal Italia. Excluding ArcelorMittal Italia, the rate was 0.75x. Our aim is continuous progress, and we will be further strengthening our safety training and initiatives to further improve our performance.

Turning to the financials. 2019 was a challenging year. We faced the headwinds of softening global economic growth, weak automotive demand and supply chain destocking. Demand in our core markets declined, putting pressure on prices and spreads. That we were able to achieve $2.4 billion of free cash flow in 2019 demonstrates the progress we have made in recent periods on our Action2020 plan. And this will continue as we have identified a further $1 billion of cost improvement opportunities to be captured in the year ahead.

We ended 2019 with net debt of $9.3 billion, its lowest-ever level, and are now focused on reaching our target of $7 billion by end of this year.

2019 also marked the culmination of a 15-year journey to establish a meaningful presence in India. In December, we completed the acquisition of Essar Steel India in partnership with Nippon Steel. Now the new business is named as ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, AMNS, provides us with a large and quality presence in the world's fastest-growing steel market. It is already a well-run, profitable business, but one which we feel we can add value to and grow over the medium term.

Looking ahead, there are some early signs of market improvement. Inventory levels are very low, which indicate the significant destock we witnessed throughout 2019 appears to be ending. This has supported the price rises we have seen in the U.S., European and Brazilian market since the end of last year.

Before we move to questions, I also want to provide you with an update on ArcelorMittal Italia. As you may remember, we signed a nonbinding agreement with the government-appointed Ilva commissioners on 20th December to continue negotiations on a new industrial plan for Ilva, which would include substantial equity investment by the state. This is a complex matter that impacts thousands of people, so we should not be surprised that discussions are still ongoing. I do not want to get drawn into answering detailed questions, but I can say that we are making progress, and we had a constructive meeting earlier this week with Prime Minister Conte. I would hope that we will make further progress over the course of today before the scheduled court hearing of tomorrow as I believe we are all focused on finding a sustainable solution.

seekingalpha.com/article/4322148-arce...

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ArcelorMittal Reports Q4 and 2019 Results

ArcelorMittal announced results for the three-month and twelve-month periods ended December 31, 2019. ArcelorMittal Chairman and CEO Mr LN Mittal said “2019 was a very tough year, clearly reflected in our significantly reduced profitability. However, our cash generation remained strong helping to reduce net debt to the lowest ever level. This demonstrates the contribution of our Action2020 programme which was designed to ensure ArcelorMittal can be cash flow positive through all aspects of the steel cycle. We expect to make further deleveraging progress this year. Maintaining a strong balance sheet and reaching our net debt target is a clear priority for ArcelorMittal. Having now completed the acquisition of Essar Steel India in partnership with Nippon Steel, we have also secured a new opportunity for the group in the fast-growing Indian market. The asset is performing well and offers considerable brownfield potential aligned with the country’s ambition to triple crude steel production over the next ten years. We also continue to invest strategically in research and development, including lower carbon steel-making processes and low carbon products. Steel has the potential to significantly reduce its carbon emissions, but new policy will be vital. In this regard we are encouraged by the position adopted by the new European Commission, including their support for a carbon border equalisation. Although market conditions remain challenging, there are encouraging early signs of improvement particularly in our core markets of US, Europe and Brazil. With inventory levels having reached a very low level following a period of de-stocking, we are seeing customers return to the market, supporting an improved pricing environment.”

Voor cijfers, zie pdf.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Nippon Steel to Close Fourth Blast Furnace

Nikkei reported that Nippon Steel plans to shut down another blast furnace beyond the three already slated to close to cut overcapacity in Japan caused in part by growing output in China. The world's third-largest steelmaker by output intends to halt one of the two blast furnaces at its Wakayama Prefecture works in western Japan within a few years. The Wakayama complex was the main steelworks of the former Sumitomo Metal Industries, which merged with Nippon Steel in 2012. Plans call for freezing the older blast furnace that went onstream in 2009 at a cost of about JPY 51 billion. This would reduce the Nippon Steel group's domestic crude steel output capacity by about 5% from 54 million tonnes.

The latest move follows earlier Nikkei reports that the company intends to shut down both blast furnaces at its Hiroshima Prefecture steelworks. Nippon Steel is yet to announce the closures

Of Nippon Steel's 16 steelworks in Japan, 15 blast furnaces at eight sites are currently in operation. The company had earlier decided to close one of two in Fukuoka Prefecture in March 2021. Together, the reduction of four blast furnaces is expected to reduce Nippon Steel's domestic output capacity by about 15%.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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JSW Steel Bags Jajang Iron Ore Block in Odisha

Odisha media reported that JSW Steel emerged as the highest bidder for Jajang iron ore block in Keonjhar district, with estimated reserves of 39.42 mmillion tonnes, by committing to pay 110 per cent of sale value of the ore to the state government. The mining lease of the block is currently with Rungta Mines and will be expired this March.

This is the fourth mines the steel firm owned during the ongoing auction. JSW Steel has already won the largest iron ore block, the Nuagaon mine, with estimated reserve of around 790 million tonnes Friday followed by winning Narayanposhi iron block with 190 million tonne reserve last Sunday. It has also bagged Ganua iron ore block with 118 million tonnes.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Baosteel and Vale Complete First Yuan-Denominated Iron Ore Deal

Reuters reported that China’s Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd, the listed arm of the country’s biggest steel producer China Baowu Steel Group, has completed its first iron ore deal settled in Chinese currency with Brazil’s Vale SA. The purchase, worth about CNY 330 million and completed last month, is part of Baosteel’s long-term contract with the leading Brazilian iron ore miner. It did not disclose the grade of iron ore or how much tonnage it had bought.

Baosteel has been promoting the yuan-denominated settlement of iron ore trade with foreign suppliers since 2019 and has done import deals with countries, including South Africa and Ukraine, for about 240 million yuan in total, the statement said.

Last month, China’s second-largest steelmaker HBIS Group also announced that it had secured a combined CNY 200 million worth of iron ore deals with Vale denominated in Yuan.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Kobe Steel was hit by Cyberattack Cases - Defense Ministry

Kyodo News reported that Japan’s Defense Ministry confirmed that Kobe Steel Ltd and satellite data provider Pasco Corp have come under cyberattacks, the latest in a series of confirmed cases of attacks on Japanese defense-related companies.It said “Kobe Steel and Pasco found some of their intracompany network terminals were infected with a computer virus, likely from unauthorized outside access in August 2016 and May 2018.”

Kobe Steel said a total of 250 files, including information on the ministry, as well as personal data, might have been leaked. The company has taken measures to beef up cybersecurity.

Kobe Steel has been a supplier of submarine parts for the Self-Defense Forces, while Pasco has provided the SDF with satellite data.

The news of the hacking came after Mitsubishi Electric Corp. and NEC Corp., key players in Japan's defense and infrastructure industries, acknowledged last month that they have come under major cyberattacks in the past few years. No highly classified defense secrets are believed to have been leaked.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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SMS Group to Modernize Medium-Section Mill of CELSA Barcelona

CELSA Barcelona has contracted SMS group to revamp the section mill at its Castellbisbal location in Spain. Since 2000, CELSA Barcelona has been producing I and H beams on a medium-section mill supplied by SMS group. The mill was originally designed for an annual production of 500.000 tons. SMS group first expanded the initial range of products rollable on the mill during a revamp in 2007. Continuous plant optimization in cooperation with SMS group has raised the mill’s annual capacity to 1 million tonnes since then. The recent contract for SMS group now covers the replacement of the existing cooling bed with a new, higher-capacity one and the upgrade of the CRS® (Compact Roller Straightener), making it capable of straightening heavier products. These measures will require adjustments to and upgrades of the existing electrical and automation systems, all of which will be performed by SMS group.

The new cooling bed will come with an aerosol cooling system that will boost the cooling efficiency and, consequently, the mill’s productivity. Another special feature of the new cooling bed will be a turning device designed to turn I and H beams through 90 degrees into or out of the upright position. This device will further increase the through-put rate of these products. The planned revamp will enable CELSA Barcelona to add HEA y HEB de 600 to its portfolio and further enhance its production efficiency.

Before placing this modernization order, CELSA Barcelona contracted SMS group with a study to determine the investment amount to add the new product sizes and SMS Concast with the order to add a further strand to the continuous casting machine that would enable the casting of heavier beam blanks for the larger cross-sections to be rolled in the future. That project was completed at the end of 2019.

The work on the straightening machine is planned to be performed during the 2020 summer break. The new cooling bed will be installed and commissioned during the summer shutdown of 2021.

CELSA Group operates various steel production facilities. At Castellbisbal, in the province of Barcelona, Spain, CELSA has been active since 1967. The facilities today comprise an EAF meltshop, a bar rolling mill, a wire rod mill and a medium-section mill. Annual production totals 2.4 million tonnes.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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JSW Steel to Triple Colour-Coated Steel Capacity in 2 Years

Business Standard reported that JSW Steel plans to increase its colour-coated steel capacity by nearly three times in the next two years, and is looking at organic as well as inorganic expansion to achieve it. Currently, the company's colour-coated steel manufacturing capacity is around 0.75 million tonne per year which it will take to over 2.1 million tonne per year in the next two years.
JSW Group's Mr Parth Jindal told reporters"We are seeing a growing demand for colour-coated steel from individual home builders and industries as well as warehousing sector. We want to increase our existing capacity by nearly three times in the next two years to be future ready.”

JSW Steel Director (commercial, marketing and corporate strategy) Mr Jayant Acharya said the company will look at greenfield as well as brownfield expansions. He told "The acquisition of Asian colour-coated has been a move in the direction to increase the capacity of colour coated sheets. We will look at similar opportunities as well as grow organically to achieve the target.”

He added "The demand for colour-coated sheets is multi-fold, be it in appliances, pre-engineered buildings, warehouses, roofing and cladding, commercial building, among others. The demand is at mid- double digit and with the focus on these sectors, the demand will further grow.”

In India, the demand for colour-coated sheets is around 2.5 million tonne per year and the installed capacity is around million tonne per year A, running at a utilisation of 85 per cent.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Baowu Steel Buys Back Shares in Baoshan Iron & Steel to Prop Up Prices

Caixian Global reported that State-owned steel giant China Baowu Steel Group Corp Ltd has increased its stake in a listed subsidiary to stabilize the unit’s share price after it was pummeled in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. Through an investment arm, Baowu Steel has arranged to increase its stake in Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd on Tuesday by 0.32%, which amounts to 71.7 million shares. It said “The expansion was aimed at restoring the market’s confidence after a crash in China’s reopening A-share stock market due to the pneumonia outbreak. It is the responsibility of Baowu, as a Chinese state-owned enterprise, to demonstrate its resolve by sticking by small investors through thick and thin.”

The rebound in Baoshan’s share price came after the Chinese mainland’s benchmark stock index plunged by nearly 8% on Monday due to the worsening coronavirus outbreak.

In China, it is a common tactic for companies to buy back their own stock after their share prices tumble. The buybacks can help put a floor under a stock’s price and are often backed by the government. During the stock market crash of 2015, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which oversees the country’s biggest SOEs, released a statement encouraging SOEs to increase their stakes in their own companies and banned them from selling stock, according to the administration’s website.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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US DoC Lowers Anti-Dumping Tariffs on Oil Pipe Imports from South Korea

The US Department of Commerce said it plans to impose a tariff of 3.45 percent to 4.81 percent on South Korean oil pipelines, far lower than the earlier proposal of up to 38.87 percent in June. By company, the tariff for pipelines from Nexteel Co. came to 4.81 percent, followed by SeAH Steel Corp. with 3.4 percent and other firms with 3.99 percent. Under the previous ruling, Nexteel's tariffs stood at a whopping 38.87 percent, while those for SeAH were 27.38 percent.

The US department said the rates were based on the particular market situation regulations that allow for high tariff rates on goods from countries where export prices are believed to have deviated from those of the domestic market.

The final decision will be delivered in May.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Tenova to Supply Hot Dip Galvanizing Line to NLMK

Tenova recently received the notice to proceed with the new Hot Dip Galvanizing line for NLMK Group, a leading international manufacturer of high-quality steel products, in Lipetsk, Russia. The new line, with a yearly throughput of 450 kt/y, has the advantage to be able to process several input material and in particular interstitial free (IF) steel, high strength steel (HSS) and advanced high strength steel (AHSS) that allow NLMK to strengthen its market share in the automotive applications.

The new state of the art for HDG line includes a hybrid furnace, which combines a horizontal heating portion with a vertical heat treatment and close cooling chamber, to achieve flexibility with the most severe strip annealing recipes, in addition to a new skin pass and tension leveller section required by multiphase steel grades. A new On-Line Level 2 Mathematical Model will guarantee constant high quality also with different production scenarios.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Economic Slowdown Impacted voestalpine’s Earnings in Q3

voestalpine has been confronted with a gradual dampening of economic sentiment throughout the business year 2019/20. The negative effects of the trade conflicts on the global economy, particularly the weak performance of Europe’s export-driven industries, voestalpine’s key sales market, pose significant challenges for the company. Aside from declining demand in the key automotive segment, globally rising iron ore prices in tandem with low steel prices put additional pressure on profit margins in the steel sector. Internally, steps taken at the company’s plant in Cartersville, Georgia, USA, have already boosted its efficiency, but additional optimization steps will be required to achieve the initial targets. voestalpine AG Management Board Chairman Herbert Eibensteiner said “The economic downturn in our most important markets and industries as well as the impairment losses and provisions booked in the current business year have a substantially negative impact on voestalpine’s result for the third quarter of the business year 2019/20. At the same time, however, the cost-cutting and efficiency improvement measures that we are implementing are already bearing fruit. We are seeing first signs that demand might stabilize in some of the business segments. Our broad positioning in terms of both technology and regions turns out to be a source of strength in these challenging times. As a result, the performance of the rail technology, aerospace as well as welding and storage technology systems segments was solid throughout the first nine months of the current business year.”

Due to lower delivery volumes, the revenue of the voestalpine Group as of the third quarter of the business year 2019/20 declined slightly by 3.8%, from EUR 9.9 billion the previous year to EUR 9.6 billion. Year-over-year comparisons of the current earnings figures are only marginally relevant to descriptions of the company’s operating performance. As previously reported, voestalpine AG recognized impairment losses in its key business segments and, additionally, set up provisions for restructuring expenses and other risks in the third quarter of the current business year following an analysis of the changed global economic environment. About EUR 75 million in provisions adversely affect EBITDA for the third quarter; the impact on EBIT amounts to about EUR 345 million (impairment losses and provisions). As a result, EBITDA fell year over year by a total of –24.2%, from EUR 1.1 billion to EUR 837 million. Given the difficult economic environment and the aforementioned non-recurring effects, EBIT stands at EUR –82 million, down from EUR 526 million the previous year.

While a “hard Brexit” with its negative effects did not come to pass, the economic and financial fallout from the coronavirus epidemic in China, where voestalpine operates nine local manufacturing companies, is not foreseeable at this time. Pursuant to governmental requirements or recommendations, these Chinese plants are subject to an extended vacation shutdown until at least February 9th. The ramifications of the coronavirus add yet another risk factor to the current global economic picture.

Based on the fact that the first nine months of the business year 2019/20 have passed and, in particular, based on analyses of the changed global economic environment and its ramifications for voestalpine’s key business segments and given the conclusions drawn and actions taken, from today’s vantage point the Management Board of voestalpine AG expects EBITDA of EUR 1.2 billion for the business year 2019/20 and an EBIT to be just positive.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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ArcelorMittal South Africa Reports Loss in 2019

Africa’s largest steelmaker ArcelorMittal SA expects a loss of ZAR 4.676 billion in 209, from a profit of ZAR 1.37 billion in 2018. Revenue in 2019 fell 9% to ZAR 41.4 billion. It said “The global downturn in steel demand was faster and deeper than anticipated and there had been a breakdown in the correlation between steel prices and raw material costs during the year. The cash cost per tonne of liquid steel produced increased 12% to end-December, while sales volumes decreased 8%. Internationally, steel producers are struggling to respond fast enough to the dramatic change in the business environment compared to 2018. Increases in electricity, port and rail tariffs had a detrimental impact on the company’s international competitiveness.”

ArcelorMittal SA had said in November it would shutter its Saldanha operation, after concluding it had lost its structural competitive cost advantage.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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MCA Files Affidavit in NCLAT in BPSL JSW Steel Matter

Indian Express reported that in a shift of stance, the Ministry of Corporate Affairs has said the onus of checking whether the resolution plan for Bhushan Power & Steel, submitted by JSW Steel, passes all Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code checks, lies with the adjudicating authority and investigating agencies, and not the central government. In its affidavit to the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal MCA has said “IBC does not envisage any role of the central government to check that the resolution plan submitted during the course of a corporate insolvency resolution process satisfies the conditions set forth in various provisions under the Code. Specifically, with respect to Section 32 (A), the onus has been placed by the Code on the adjudicating authority and the investigating authorities to ensure that conditions prescribed under Section 32 (A) are met, before approval is granted for any resolution plan.”

In its affidavit, the MCA has, for the first time, also said it is mandatory for the National Company Law Tribunal, which is the adjudicating authority, to ensure that before approving any resolution plan, it seeks relevant comments and clearance from investigating authorities.

The MCA’s stand, absolving itself of any responsibility, comes after the NCLAT, on January 13, asked the MCA, the Enforcement Directorate, the Serious Fraud Investigation Office and the Central Bureau of Investigation to clarify their stand on whether the latest amendment introducing Section 32 (A) in IBC would protect JSW Steel from probe in the alleged money laundering probe in Bhushan Power.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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US Steel Imports in January 2020 Surge - AISI

Based on the Commerce Department’s most recent Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis data, the American Iron and Steel Institute reported that steel import permit applications for the month of January totaled 3,352,000 net tons. This was a 45.6% increase from the 2,303,000 permit tons recorded in December and a 115.8% increase from the December preliminary imports total of 1,553,000 net tons. Import permit tonnage for finished steel in January was 1,559,000 net tons, up 15.7% from the preliminary imports total of 1,347,000 net tons in December. The estimated finished steel import market share in January was 17%.

Finished steel imports with large increases in January permits vs. the December preliminary included reinforcing bars (up 133%), sheet and strip all other metallic coatings (up 108%), heavy structural shapes (up 108%), wire rods (up 80%), sheets and strip galvanized hot dipped (up 45%), mechanical tubing (up 39%) and wire drawn (up 31%).

In January, the largest finished steel import permit applications for offshore countries were for South Korea (159,000 net tons, down 5% from December preliminary), Japan (76,000 net tons, up 14%), Turkey (50,000 net tons, up 646%), Germany (50,000 net tons, down 40%) and Taiwan (42,000 net tons, up 42%).

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Steel-Built Carbon Capture Machines are removing CO2 from the air

The Climeworks project has set up a carbon capture and storage facility at a remote site in Iceland that is drawing CO2 from the atmosphere and safely storing it in the ground. While the planet is increasingly transitioning away from fossil fuels, there remains the problem of what to do about the increased levels of CO2 already present in the earth’s atmosphere. The search for workable decarbonisation tech has been ongoing for some time and the engineers at Climeworks have come up with a potentially workable solution. Indeed, the company is the first to operate a commercial carbon capture programme from ambient air, and steel is central to the technology’s design.

The remote nature of Climeworks’ site locations and the extreme weather and natural wear from the process of carbon capture make steels perfect for the job due to their endurance and corrosion resistance. The huge machines which perform the carbon capture process resemble jet engines and use steel and stainless steel throughout their structure. The remote nature of Climeworks’ site locations and the extreme weather and natural wear from the process of carbon capture make steels perfect for the job due to their endurance and corrosion resistance.

The CO2 collectors have been through many design stages to reach their current iteration, but the model in operation relies on massive fans to draw ambient air through the collector. This air is then filtered to remove CO2 as the molecules adhere to a specialised material contained within.

Once the filter is saturated with carbon dioxide, the collector is sealed and heated to around 100 degrees centigrade, causing the CO2 molecules to detach and be collected in a container. This concentrated CO2 can then be put to use in the commercial sector or seeded deep underground, locking it away.

The gas can be employed in an array of sectors, included carbonated beverages and agriculture. Climeworks’ leading facility in Switzerland pipes CO2 to a nearby greenhouse and the company also has a deal in place with Coca-Cola.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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CME Launches North European Hot-Rolled Coil Steel (Argus) Futures Contract

CME Group announced the launch of North European Hot-Rolled Coil Steel (Argus) Futures, to begin trading on March 9, 2020, pending all relevant regulatory review periods. North European Hot-Rolled Coil Steel (Argus) Futures will be financially settled based on a price assessment published by Argus Media each business day of the contract month. The futures will be quoted in Euros per metric ton and have a contract size of 20 metric tons. The first listed month will be the March 2020 contract, with a further 11 consecutive months available for trading out to February 2021.

Ferrous metals futures and options trading volumes have increased more than 35 percent during 2019 reaching a new record volume of 251,999 contracts traded.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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EUROFER Update on Apparent Steel Consumption in EU

EUROFER announced that EU28 apparent steel consumption fell by 3.1% year- on-year in the third quarter of 2019, and amounted to 37.2 million tonnes. The third quarter marked the third consecutive drop in apparent consumption, but this downward trend slowed down compared to the fall of 6.7% (revised, formerly 7.7%) recorded in the second quarter. Contrary to the seasonal pattern, ongoing uncertainty about near-term business conditions as well as relatively high stock levels at the end of the first quarter have triggered a stock reduction in the second quarter, which has continued also in the third quarter.

After the pronounced fall recorded in the second quarter (-19.4%) – reflecting the combined impact of the safeguard measures and the sharp drop in EU steel demand on - imports of steel products from third countries into the EU market decreased very moderately over the third quarter (-1.1%). Imports have shown great monthly volatility since the introduction of the quarterly safeguard measures, and jumped to an all-time record level of
4.2 million tonnes in July, followed by a correction to a much lower tonnage in August. Since then, imports have remained well below the July peak, i.e. around average levels. This resulted in an average monthly level of 2.8 million tonnes over the first eleven months of 2019, below the record level registered in 2018. Nevertheless, the import penetration rate remained very high in historical terms.

Meanwhile, domestic deliveries by EU steel suppliers fell by 2.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019, a slightly steeper fall compared to deliveries in the second quarter of the year (-2.3% year-on-year), mirroring business conditions in the EU steel market that have become considerably more difficult for EU steel producers. Price pressure stemming from persistently high levels of imports has intensified, coupled with high monthly imports fluctuations, falling steel demand and destocking. This has led to EU steel producers closing capacity and shedding jobs.

Apparent steel consumption forecast 2020-2021 - The negative trend in steel demand is expected to continue over the coming quarters. Due to a further drop in steel demand in the final quarter of 2019, apparent steel is expected to have fallen by 3.3% in 2019. A further drop in steel demand is also expected for the first quarter of 2020, despite some restocking. The second quarter of 2020 is expected to see continued modest restocking and should register year-on-year growth in apparent consumption, although it has to be realised that this is largely a base year effect due to the low level of demand in the same quarter of 2019. However, real steel consumption is not expected to increase before the second half of 2020. The relative improvement in apparent steel consumption is therefore basically a ‘technical recovery’, which does not originate from a real recovery in final steel use. Apparent consumption is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2020 and by 2.3% in 2021, supported by improving real demand and a normalisation of the stock cycle. The combination of muted steel market fundamentals and high and increasingly volatile monthly steel imports entering the EU market will most likely continue to undermine business conditions for EU steel producers. In this respect, a key issue is that any recovery in EU steel demand in early 2020 will mainly benefit imports rather than EU steel suppliers, due to the transfer mechanism of unused quarterly quota. Another fundamental factor which is at the root of the current challenges faced by the EU steel sector is global overcapacity. Global steel capacity continued to increase and the gap between capacity and production has been widening. Excess capacity growth is primarily being driven – without sound economic reasons - by countries such as China, Indonesia, Iran, Russia, and Turkey. Against their continuous increase in capacity, safeguard measures alone do not appear to be sufficient to counter this threat.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Uitgelicht: Aperam verrast positief

FONDS KOERS VERSCHIL VERSCHIL % BEURS
Aperam
31,42 0,27 0,87 % Euronext Amsterdam

(ABM FN) Aperam heeft in het vierde kwartaal van 2019 beter gepresteerd dan een kwartaal eerder en wist ook de verwachtingen van de analisten te kloppen. Beleggers en analisten reageerden afgelopen week dan ook positief op de cijfers van het roestvast staalbedrijf.

Het aandeel eindigde de week op 31,31 euro, ofwel een stijging van 20,6 procent op weekbasis.

Verschillende beurshuizen verhoogden in reactie op de kwartaalcijfers het koersdoel voor het aandeel. Bij Bank of America steeg het koersdoel van 32,00 naar 34,00 euro, bij Credit Suisse van 27,00 naar 31,00 euro, bij Kepler Cheuvreux van 24,00 naar 26,00 euro.

Credit Suisse benadrukte dat ondanks de meevallende kwartaalcijfers de uitdagingen op fundamentele basis groot blijven voor Aperam.

"In het vierde kwartaal van 2019 heeft Aperam te maken gehad met de moeilijkste marktomstandigheden sinds haar oprichting", benadrukte CEO Timoteo Di Maulo in een toelichting.

"Dit was te wijten aan een ongekende prijsdruk in combinatie met een sterke volumekrimp als gevolg van de handelsoorlog, wat tot een extreem hoge import [van roestvast staal] leidde. Dit werd versterkt door de zwakke economische omstandigheden in zowel Europa als Brazilië. In deze context heeft Aperam een solide cashflow en winst behaald", zei de topman.

In het afgelopen kwartaal kwam de EBITDA uit op 102 miljoen euro, tegen 79 miljoen euro een kwartaal eerder en 90 miljoen euro in dezelfde periode in 2018.

In dit resultaat is er wel een eenmalige bate meegenomen van 17 miljoen euro, waarmee de aangepaste EBITDA op 85 miljoen euro uitkwam. Dit is hoger dan de 81 miljoen euro, waarop de consensus samengesteld door Aperam zelf mikte.

Analisten menen dat de goede prestatie van Aperam wel te danken is aan eenmalige meevallers.

Over het hele jaar boekte Aperam een EBITDA van 357 miljoen euro.

Onder de streep restte een nettowinst van 29 miljoen euro tegen 37 miljoen euro in het derde kwartaal, ofwel een winst per aandeel van 0,36 euro tegen 0,47 euro.

De vrije kasstroom voor dividend en het inkoopprogramma van eigen aandelen bedroeg 140 miljoen euro tegen 45 miljoen euro in het derde kwartaal. Over het hele jaar kwam de vrije kasstroom daarmee uit op 281 miljoen euro.

De nettoschuld kwam uit op 75 miljoen euro per 31 december 2019, tegen 172 miljoen euro aan het einde van het derde kwartaal. Dit is volgens verschillende analisten veel beter dan verwacht. Volgens Morgan Stanley biedt dit Aperam de kans kleine overnames te doen of de aandeelhouder beter te belonen.

De fabrikant stelde zijn aandeelhouders een dividend voor van 1,75 euro per aandeel. Daarnaast kondigde Aperam ook een aandeleninkoopprogramma aan. Het bedrijf wil tot 100 miljoen euro aan eigen aandelen inkopen met een maximum van 3,8 miljoen aandelen.

Het programma loopt tot 30 december 2020 en de aangekochte aandelen zullen ingetrokken worden.

Outlook

"In de toekomst verwachten we dat het economische klimaat uitdagend zal blijven en dat de hoge concurrentiedruk in 2020 zal aanhouden", waarschuwde de CEO.

Aperam zal daarom zijn inspanningen opvoeren om de efficiëntie te vergroten en concurrerender te worden. "We zullen ook de Europese Commissie blijven bewerken om snel een tot een gelijk speelveld te komen", aldus Di Maulo. Aperam wil dat Brussel maatregelen neemt om de import van goedkoop roestvast staal uit bijvoorbeeld China te weren. Door het dumpen van staal staan de prijzen immers onder druk.

Aperam verwacht voor het lopende eerste kwartaal dat de aangepaste EBITDA rond het zelfde niveau als in het vierde kwartaal zal uitkomen.

Voor de nettoschuld wordt op basis van seizoenspatronen weer een stijging verwacht in het eerste kwartaal, maar de fabrikant verwacht desalniettemin dat de schuldpositie aan de lage kant blijft.

Volgens analisten is deze outlook van Aperam aan de zwakke kant, zeker aangezien de verwachtingen die concurrent Outokumpu afgaf, die voor het eerste kwartaal een aantrekkende markt voor roestvrij staal verwacht.

Door: ABM Financial News.
pers@abmfn.be
Redactie: +32(0)78 486 481

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