Iron ore will hold in USD 70s - RBC
According to RBC Capital Markets, Iron ore is expected to hold above USD 70 a metric tonne right through to the end of December after rallying on Chinese demand, that it expects the commodity’s advance to prompt upgrades of price forecasts from across the board. Analyst Paul Hissey said in a Bloomberg Television interview that the raw material has stormed higher since mid June as China reforms its massive steel industry, including shuttering less efficient plants. That’s bolstered demand for output from remaining producers, supporting mills’ margins.
Iron ore has see-sawed this year, rallying to almost USD 95 a tonne in February before tumbling to near USD 50 in mid June as glut fears resurfaced. Now it’s rebounded again amid China’s steel boom, and RBC’s outlook for a sustained run above USD 70 counters views for a sell-off, including from Barclays.
RBC placed joint-third, along with Citigroup Inc, in predicting prices in the second quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Mr Hissey said that “It’s holding up quite well and we’d expect it to sort of maintain these USD 70-plus levels now for the remainder of the year.”
After a “rocky start” to 2017, he said that “I’d expect from this point forward we’ll have consensus upgrades coming through the street.”
According to Metal Bulletin, spot ore with 62% content delivered to Qingdao rose 2.4% to USD 79.81 a dry tonne, the highest level since April.
Prices, which have gained for six straight weeks in the longest winning streak since 2010, have averaged about USD 73 so far this year, benefiting miners including Rio Tinto Group, BHP Billiton and Vale SA.
There are still plenty of bears out there. The commodity may see its gains unravel over the second half as steel production in China eases back from a record pace just as global miners pump up volumes, according to Capital Economics, which came out top among forecasters in the second quarter.
Barclays has said it sees an average of USD 50 by the fourth quarter.
Goldman Sachs Group is among banks that have recently upgraded their price forecasts for iron ore. Last month, the bank boosted its three-month outlook 27% to $70 a tonne, while sticking with a bearish view for 2018 amid rising mine supplies. UBS Group AG said prices in the USD 70s aren’t likely to last beyond the third quarter as construction activity in China is set to ease while supply increases, according to a report received yesterday.
Source : Gulf Times