SNSN schreef op 26 maart 2014 14:36:
[...]
As you know, we are sitting in long-term uptrend since May 2013 (can be checked with 1-year graphs). As you also know, to change the long-term trend one needs objective “strategic news“ (which we don’t have currently). Thus, conditional on current info, we stay within the same channel. And to do so we need to move from border to border... preserving our “strategic drift“. Since we are at the lower border and because of p/v distributions in time, the 31st of March is the most probable time, conditional on current info, when new upward sub-trend (within the same trend channel) could be developed. Don’t forget, we live in a “probabilistic world”.... which is not perfect. That is still “hidden info” may become available to some parties.... influencing border-indicators and giving signals to other players. Although, a (misleading) “signal“ may also be generated artificially.... to strip you out of trend. So, take care of your stops at the borders and other possible turning points, as well as, always check whether “signal” is a genuine one...
At this moment around ~10 M shares had to be sold with losses to impose the dip - these are the “costs“. Further artificial price pressure would become more and more expensive for main players (if it’s neither “supported” by small players taking “small losses” voluntarily, nor investment shares are put on sale) decreasing potential returns for main players. So, that is about prof ex-ante returns optimization... conditional on existing info and (rational) behavior of market participants.