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[verwijderd] 14 maart 2016 18:14

Beste B.B. ik neem aan dat jij een stijging van de goudprijs verwacht en ben daarom benieuwd naar jouw visie en onderbouwing omtrent een mogelijke verdere stijging van de goudprijs.

Grt,

Howard

[verwijderd] 14 maart 2016 18:25

quote:
Natte krant schreef op 11 maart 2016 09:40:
Volgende week wordt Goldman Sachs gold short positie uitgestopt!

Er is inderdaad wat gaande in de goudmarkt.

Net-long holdings climb 21% to largest since February 2015
Assets in bullion ETPs rise in longest stretch since 2012

"All this comes as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the bank that foresaw gold’s collapse in 2013, continues to stick by its prediction that prices will start to retreat."

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-...

[verwijderd] 14 maart 2016 18:32

quote:
B_B schreef op 14 maart 2016 09:57:
[...]

Waarschijnlijk op woensdag/donderdag.

www.reuters.com/article/global-precio...

[verwijderd] 14 maart 2016 19:33

Goud gaat weer terug naar 1050 of nog lager. Woensdag rente omhoog in de VS daarna nog 3x dit jaar alleen maar om goud naar beneden te krijgen om de economie geeft de FED geen zak. Het gaat hun om de dollar.

[verwijderd] 14 maart 2016 21:53

quote:
pmsbutternutter schreef op 14 maart 2016 19:33:
Goud gaat weer terug naar 1050 of nog lager. Woensdag rente omhoog in de VS daarna nog 3x dit jaar alleen maar om goud naar beneden te krijgen om de economie geeft de FED geen zak. Het gaat hun om de dollar.

[verwijderd] 14 maart 2016 22:58

quote:
pmsbutternutter schreef op 14 maart 2016 19:33:
Goud gaat weer terug naar 1050 of nog lager. Woensdag rente omhoog in de VS daarna nog 3x dit jaar alleen maar om goud naar beneden te krijgen om de economie geeft de FED geen zak. Het gaat hun om de dollar.

Geen sprake van dat de FED woensdag de rente al verhoogt. Minder dan 5% van geraadpleegde economen gelooft dit (Reuters).
Yellen zal zeggen ´dat als de goede cijfers van nu doorgang vinden een renteverhoging wel een stuk dichterbij brengt´.

[verwijderd] 15 maart 2016 08:44

Precies Ed dat dreigen is al genoeg om goud te laten dalen naar onder de 1050. De Centrale banken zijn nu bezig om het laatste geld uit ons te persen. En we zijn ook nog blij met hun beleid.

[verwijderd] 16 maart 2016 19:45

quote:
B_B schreef op 11 maart 2016 08:21:
3/9/2016 8:36:59 AM
Goldman Sachs
.....
6. We also maintain our bearish view on gold that has rallied along with the other commodities. Our short gold recommendation (which we opened with a 17% upside, in line with our $1000/toz 12-m forecast) is currently at a c.5% loss, with a stop loss at 7%. This gold rally was driven by a lack of conviction in divergence in US growth as a weak US dollar has been highly correlated with a higher gold price. We believe this realignment view of weak global growth is not supported by the US data, which will likely reinforce higher US yields, a stronger US dollar and the return of divergence, particularly should strong US consumer growth dissolve market fears regarding US growth. This in turn will likely put downward pressure on gold prices towards our near-term target of $1100/toz (current price is $1265/toz).
.....
www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?...

De gold short positie van Goldman Sachs wordt bijna uitgestopt (boven 1290,50).

Gaat Goldman dan toch gestopt worden :-)?

B_B 17 maart 2016 00:41

Hopelijk realiseren de Chinezen zich dat de goudprijs niet lager gaat en gaan ze massaal GOUD kopen om 3:00 uur vandaag.

[verwijderd] 17 maart 2016 01:36

quote:
B_B schreef op 17 maart 2016 00:41:
Hopelijk realiseren de Chinezen zich dat de goudprijs niet lager gaat en gaan ze massaal GOUD kopen om 3:00 uur vandaag.

hoop het voor je, maar ik vrees van niet.
Chinezen zijn gokkers, hun ingestorte beurs zal eerst aan de beurt zijn, voor een rit omhoog, daarvoor verkopen ze hun laatste goud!

B_B 17 maart 2016 09:08

quote:
ed.p schreef op 17 maart 2016 01:36:
[...]

hoop het voor je, maar ik vrees van niet.
Chinezen zijn gokkers, hun ingestorte beurs zal eerst aan de beurt zijn, voor een rit omhoog, daarvoor verkopen ze hun laatste goud!

Helaas.

Hopelijk zorgt een verdere daling van USD/JPY (onder 111) voor een negatieve beurs (en stijging GOUD).

B_B 17 maart 2016 09:12

Munich Re stashes gold and cash to counter negative rates
MUNICH, MARCH 16

German reinsurer Munich Re is boosting its gold and cash reserves in the face of the punishing negative interest rates from the European Central Bank, it said on Wednesday.

The world's largest reinsurer is far from alone in seeking alternative investment strategies to counter the near-zero or negative interest rates that reduce the income insurers require to pay out on policies.

Munich Re has held gold in its coffers for some time and recently added a cash sum in in the two-digit million euros, Chief Executive Nikolaus von Bomhard told a news conference.

"We are just trying it out, but you can see how serious the situation is," von Bomhard said.

The ECB last week cut its main interest rate to zero and dropped the rate on its deposit facility to -0.4 percent from -0.3 percent, increasing the amount banks are charged to deposit funds with the central bank.

ECB policy has caused financial market interest rates to fall, reducing the return that insurance companies can earn from investments in bonds, hurting profit and raising concerns about their ability to meet future promises to policyholders.

www.reuters.com/article/munich-re-ecb...

B_B 17 maart 2016 15:21

USD/JPY eyes 112.00 on US releases, BoJ?
Thu, Mar 17 2016, 12:48 GMT

The Japanese Yen is now giving away some gains vs. the greenback, taking USD/JPY back to the proximity of the 112.00 handle.

USD/JPY bounces off lows post-US data, BoJ rumours

After a test of fresh 2016 lows in near 110.70, the pair has staged a strong rebound following auspicious results from the US docket, where Initial Claims rose to 265K during last week and the Philly Fed manufacturing survey has come in at 12.4, both prints bettering expectations.

Apart from the results in US releases, the abrupt change of direction in the pair seems to have been fuelled by rumours of intervention by the BoJ after JPY clinched fresh YTD highs vs. USD.

www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/arti...

[verwijderd] 17 maart 2016 20:21

Zakken met dat zooitje ;) lekker Dust traden...

B_B 18 maart 2016 12:06

Grote beleggers storten zich op goud
3 uur geleden
Theo Besteman

Goud raakt in zwang als belegging bij institutionele partijen. Ze ontvluchten de negatieve rentes van centrale banken. Münich Re, ’s werelds grootste herverzekeraar, slaat goud en cash als zekerheid in.

Het edelmetaal biedt anders dan aandelen en obligaties rente noch dividend. Goudgebruik voor industriële verwerking en sieraden is bovendien beperkt. Goud moet het vooral van zijn prijsstijging hebben en zijn eeuwenoude imago: waardevast in crisistijd.

Big Boys
,,De big boys, de grote professionele partijen komen nu naar de markt voor fysiek goud voor rendement”, ziet Ole Hansen, hoofd grondstoffenhandel bij Saxo Bank aan de verhandelde volumes in fysiek goud in Londen.

In enkele weken is voor $10 miljard goud aangekocht. ,,Particulieren kunnen deze hoeveelheden nooit kopen”, stelt Hansen.

www.telegraaf.nl/dft/nieuws_dft/25420...

B_B 21 maart 2016 08:56

JPMorgan Chase's forecaster says buy gold, not stocks
Stephanie Landsman | @stephlandsman
18 Hours Ago

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One of Wall Street's most respected forecasters says the market's rally is in trouble, and that investors are likely to do better by betting on gold.

The Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 Index have staged dramatic comebacks from their lows, erasing or nearly erasing their losses for the year. In fact, the Dow's rebound may prove to be its best intraquarter rebound since 1933.
But JPMorgan Global Head of Quantitative and Derivatives Research Marko Kolanovic argued recently on CNBC's "Fast Money" that the strong run may in fact be in jeopardy.

Kolanovic, who is closely followed by the hedge fund industry, said that the rally since Feb. 11 has been more technical in nature, and largely motivated by momentum investors covering their bets that the S&P would fall.

That is, the popular trade of being long momentum stocks against a short position on the S&P 500 is being unwound. This comes as momentum names have sharply unperformed value stocks, leading to nightmarish performance for the long/short mix in question.
Since the market bounce has been largely driven by repositioning, he sees little reason for it to continue in a meaningful way.

"Although risk slightly may be on the upside rather than on downside, I would say fundamentally ... you [potentially] have 5 percent upside and 10 percent downside, so it doesn't look that great," said Kolanovic.

He further argued that investors should stick with the defensive gold trade right now, even after the recent surge in prices.
The Federal Reserve's more dovish policy outlook "should put some downward pressure on the dollar and hence should be supportive of gold."
In addition, the rising chance of Donald Trump's becoming the next president could also be bearish for the dollar, given the restrictive trade measures he has proposed, such as large tariffs against Chinese goods. "Generally, the U.S. dollar could be under some pressure if you have these types of policies," said Kolanovic.

Kolanovic's accuracy streak on the markets and policy has been burnished by his predicting of several market drops in the second half of 2015. More recently, he accurately called rebounds in gold and crude oil on the Feb. 8 edition of "Fast Money."

Since then, gold and oil have risen about 8 percent and 30 percent, respectively.

www.cnbc.com/2016/03/20/jpmorgan-chas...

B_B 21 maart 2016 09:00

Gold's appeal grows in era of volatile markets
BY SOPHIE BAKER | MARCH 21, 2016

Money managers are taking part in a gold rush — in some cases for the first time in years — as the precious metal regains its shine in a world of negative interest rates and jittery markets.

The trend is particularly noticeable in multiasset portfolios and in exchange-traded products.

“In a world where interest rates go down and stay low, gold becomes interesting as it has got (fewer) competitors,” said Marino Valensise, London-based head of multiasset at Baring Asset Management.

Recent interest rate cuts into negative territory in Europe and Japan are good for gold, he noted.

“On the other side, you have got the U.S. tightening rates, but what has happened in the last three months is a lot of people (have) realized the (Federal Reserve) might go much slower than was originally anticipated, so all those expectations of tightening coming down have given gold a little bit of a shine,” Mr. Valensise said.

A stable dollar — the currency in which gold is priced — is also good for gold.

Baring added a 3% position in gold “for the first time after many years in January ... and with the benefit of hindsight we should have bought more, but it was a first significant step after many years of being absent from that market,” said Mr. Valensise, referring to the money manager's £1.7 billion ($2.4 billion) Dynamic Asset Allocation fund.

Institutional investor net inflows to gold strategies have totaled about $11 billion this year through March 16, according to data provided by EPFR Global. That compares with about $2.5 billion of net outflows over the three months ended Dec. 31.
.....
www.pionline.com/article/20160321/PRI...

B_B 21 maart 2016 09:05

Precious Metals Ignore Correction Calls
Sunday, 20 March 2016
By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Gold and gold stocks have refused to correct for more than a few days at a time. Weakness is being bought and quickly. Gold has gained over $200/oz but not corrected by more than 6%. The miners (GDX) have endured three roughly 10% corrections in the past six weeks but nothing greater. A few weeks ago we noted a comparison to the 2008 rally which hinted that miners could correct 20% before moving higher. So far, no dice. Many gold bulls continue to expect a correction while losing sight of the bigger picture: precious metals are in a new bull market.
.....
There are two problems with the recent, widespread conventional analysis of the CoT. (By the way you can’t swing a dead cat without hitting a “bearish CoT” article or blog post in the past few weeks).

First, bullish and bearish parameters have to adjust during a trend change. In a bear market sentiment usually reaches “extremely bearish” before that market can rebound. Also, even neutral or slightly bullish sentiment is enough to bring about more selling. In a bull market it is the opposite. Sentiment can get really bullish before that market corrects.

The second point is sentiment analysis can be tricky and counterproductive when a market has just made a major trend change. An extreme sentiment reading during a brand new bull trend is often a false signal because the majority remain on the sidelines. This is why new bull markets recover quickly and remain overbought for months amid bullish sentiment.

Here are some examples. Recall the huge moves equities made from the 2002 and 2009 lows. Following its 2002 low the Nasdaq rebounded 94% in 15 months and only endured one real correction (15%). Following its 2009 low the Nasdaq rebounded roughly 100% in 13 months and never corrected more than 9%! Gold, following its 1976 low rebounded roughly 62% over the next 15 months and its worst correction was 11%. Gold from its 2008 low rallied roughly 45% in five months and only endured one 10% correction.

Where are we now?

As we noted last week, if Gold follows the path of the 1976 and 2008 rebounds then it would soon reach $1400/oz and continue to reach higher levels in the months and quarters ahead.

Meanwhile, the gold stocks are certainly overbought but history argues they could trend higher in the months ahead. Note the bull analog chart below. If the HUI follows its 2008 path then it would gain 46% over the next five months and 88% over the next 11 months. If the HUI follows its path after its 2000 bottom then it would rally 128% over the next 16 months.
.....
news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1458488321...

B_B 22 maart 2016 08:30

INDIAN GOLD IMPORTS TO RISE AS NATIONWIDE JEWELLERY STRIKE ENDS
by Archie Hunter

Indian gold imports and premiums could spike after the country’s main jewellery federation reached an agreement with the government over newly imposed taxes following an 18-day strike.

Previously, the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation (GJF) had opposed a one-percent tax on gold jewellery sales, arguing that many small-scale jewellers would be adversely affected because they lacked the organisational structure to cope with detailed auditing by government agencies.

But on Monday GJF officials confirmed to FastMarkets that they had reached an agreement with the government about the tax.

“It’s been called off since Sunday; on Saturday the GJF and other agencies had a marathon, eight-hour meeting with the government and they have confirmed there will not be any kind of harassment in the imposition of the excise duty,” an executive at the Federation said on Monday.

“We have conveyed the message to our members that we are with the government and the tax,” he added.

Still, not all jewellers returned to work on Monday – Indian daily The Hindu reported that several shops in New Delhi and Mumbai remain shut.

“Some associations are still under strike,” an analyst source in the Indian market said.

While the tax represents the governments wish to generate revenue from the jewellery trade in India, the world’s largest market for gold for use in jewellery, industry observers noted that the tax was also part of an effort to crack down on untraceable ‘black money’ currency transactions in the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

GOLD IMPORTS, PREMIUMS COULD RETURN AS DEMAND RESUMES

There have been heavy discounts on physical gold kilobars in Mumbai since the strikes began – they were last assessed at $35-25 on Friday. Gold kilobars of 99.5 percent purity were last at a premium late in February.

With jewellery such an important part of Indian demand for gold, the strikes have restricted trade and imports into the country since they were announced. But their end should renew physical demand for gold, which should in turn boost premium prospects.

“It’s difficult to take a call on the market right now as today is the first day the market has been open [since the strike began] but surely there is pent-up demand and that should improve things,” the analyst said.

The latest Indian customs data show that gold imports in February at 23.8 tonnes were the lowest on record.

Traders and importers had been expecting the government to lower the 10 percent import tax on kilobars as part of its February 29 budget only to be surprised when New Delhi instead imposed the taxation on jewellery.

www.bulliondesk.com/gold-news/physica...

B_B 22 maart 2016 09:15

Two Fed Officials Point to Possibility of April Rate Hike
March 21, 2016 — 6:35 PM CET
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-...

FOMC Meeting 26-27 April 2016

Als "ze" zorgen dat de beurzen voor 26 april crash, dan komt er waarschijnlijk weer geen rente verhoging.

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