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B_B 7 september 2016 19:06

Top forecaster lowers gold price predictions
Underlying trend is still in tact but there's little upside for gold from current levels
Frik Els | about 4 hours ago

On Wednesday gold continued to build on gains sparked by disappointing US economic news and a weaker dollar.

Gold futures trading on the Comex market in New York for delivery in December, the most active contract, were exchanging hands at $1,353.70 an ounce, a three week high. Gold is now up some $50 since the release of weaker than expected payroll data on Friday.

Yesterday, the price of gold enjoyed another leg up – the best one day gain since June's Brexit poll surprised markets – when a reading of economic activity from the US Institute for Supply Management fell to its lowest level since February 2010.

The weak data poured cold water on expectations of an early rate hike in the world's largest economy. The price of gold tends to move in the opposite direction of the US dollar and also has an inverse relationship to interest rates.

Gold touched a two-year high in July around $1,380 an ounce and year to date the metal is up 27% or nearly $300 an ounce, one of its best annual performances since 1980.

Georgette Boele of ABN Amro in a new research note dated September 6 says the last couple of days notwithstanding the gold rally is running out of steam and that gold has underperformed despite the many factors working towards its advantage:

First, we had expected a larger Brexit fallout on financial markets reflected in negative investor sentiment. As a result, investors would move into gold (and to a lesser extent silver) for safe haven reasons. In fact, this did not materialise as investor sentiment on financial markets improved also helped by the recent stronger-than-expected UK data.

Second, our main scenario was that the Fed would remain on hold in 2016. However, recently we moved to a 25bp rate hike in December 2016. Comments from Fed officials and stronger-than-expected US data have triggered expectations that the Fed will hike this year. This has supported the US dollar as US real rates have moved slightly higher (less negative). The rise in the US dollar and US real rates and lower safe have demand have weighed on gold prices in Q3. This is reflected in lower investor demand in the futures markets and for gold ETFs.
Boele was one of the biggest gold bears at the start of the year predicting a fall into triple digits for the gold price and an average below that of 2015. But with headwinds for the US and global economy, unconventional monetary policy extending in developed markets and geopolitical factors burnishing gold's safe haven appeal Boele changed her call in February and accurately forecast the metal's run above the $1,300 an ounce level.

The Dutch bank does not foresee a sell-off in precious metals but a consolidation in gold prices for the coming quarters meaning that gold will likely move in a $1,300 to $1,350 trading range, before moving to $1,400 by this time next year as US interest rates hikes are factored into the price.

In July, Boele examined the performance of gold under different US presidency and concluded that a Trump win in November could see gold reaching as high as $1,850 an ounce. Under a Clinton president gold would also do well, reaching $1,650 in coming years.

www.mining.com/top-forecaster-lowers-...

Boeleshit!

B_B 7 september 2016 19:12

Streit um physisches Gold: Run auf Goldbestände für Deutsche Bank fatal
06.09.2016

de.sputniknews.com/wirtschaft/2016090...

B_B 8 september 2016 08:19

Industry expects gold to cross Rs 32,000 by Diwali
By ET Bureau | Sep 08, 2016, 07.49 AM IST

KOLKATA: With gold prices moving up to about Rs 31,500 per 10 gm in the spot market, bullion traders and analysts said the Rs 32,000 per 10 gm mark may well be breached by Diwali.

"The US economic data released last Friday gives an indication that US Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates at its September policy meeting," said Ketan Shroff, director, Penta Gold Bullion. "The US non-manufacturing new order index for August fell to the lowest since December 2013. And even if Fed hikes rate it will have very little impact on gold. Prices will definitely go up."

Sreedhar GV, chairman of All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, said that gold is in a bullish phase now and may touch Rs 32,000 per 10 gm by Diwali, which falls on October 29. Demand all over India in Sept is up 30% compared to that a year ago, he said. Analysts said that even if there is a rate hike, things can work in favour of gold with the depreciation in the rupee as the demand for dollar would rise in the event of a rate hike and would subsequently increase the landed price of gold.

The price sensitive eastern India market has also reacted to the gold demand. Suvankar Sen, managing director of Senco Gold & Diamonds, said, "We have seen demand picking up at our stores. Mostly people are buying for wedding purpose. Interestingly, consumers have a feeling that gold prices will not fall below Rs 30,000 per 10 gm level in near term. So they are making purchases as there is talk that price of gold may shot up." Retailers said demand is also coming in from government employees who have gained from the seventh pay commission award.

economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry...

B_B 8 september 2016 08:20

Trade deficit narrows as gold exports surge
12:00PM September 8, 2016

Australia’s monthly trade deficit narrowed in July, aided by a surge in gold exports.

Official numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the monthly deficit shrinking 26 per cent to $2.4 billion, beating market expectations for a more modest improvement to a $2.7bn deficit.

The result had a minor impact on the Australian dollar, which lifted 0.05c to US76.78c at 11.35am (AEST).

The deficit retreat was primarily driven by a 4 per cent advance in the value of exported goods, with a strong gold price helping the non-monetary gold component of the reading leap 62 per cent on the month.

Non-monetary gold largely covers gold sold beyond the sphere of the central banks, which control monetary policy.

Meanwhile, imports of goods and services eased 1 per cent due to a reduction in the value of consumption goods, such as clothing and food, with the reading impacted by a robust performance from the Australian dollar.

www.theaustralian.com.au/business/eco...

B_B 8 september 2016 08:23

Gold prices higher in Asia as China surprises with import gains
Commodities 3 hours ago

Investing.com - Gold prices rose slightly in Asia on Thursday after China trade data showed an unexpected gain in imports.
Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.11 to $1,351.05 a troy ounce.
The world's second largest buyer of the precious metal behind India, China reported a trade balance surplus of $52.05 billion, narrower than the $58.00 billion seen for August with exports down 2.8%, less than the 4.0% decline seen year-on-year, and imports up 1.5%, beating an expected 4.9% drop and making the first gain in 22 months as global commodity prices show signs of a rebound.
Overnight, gold prices were little changed near a three-week high in North American trade on Wednesday, as investors focused on the next set of U.S. data and Fed speakers for further guidance on the timing of the next interest rate hike.
Job openings reached 5.871 million in July, a bit higher than the 5.58 million expected.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) said its non-manufacturing purchasing manager's index fell from 55.5 in July to 51.4 in August, its weakest level since February 2010.
That followed last week's lackluster U.S. employment report as well as the ISM's manufacturing survey, which showed a shocking contraction in activity.
The recent string of disappointing data all but quashed talk of a near-term rate hike from the Fed. According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, investors are pricing in a 15% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's September 20-21 meeting.
Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.

www.investing.com/news/commodities-ne...

B_B 8 september 2016 08:33

'Flash Boys' Heroes to Tap Blockchain for New Gold Exchange
Published on September 7, 2016 at 20:15 BST

The company featured in the bestselling book "Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt" reportedly plans to use the blockchain to build a more transparent gold exchange.

Startup TradeWind Markets, which recently spun off from The Investor's Exchange (IEX), is said to be preparing to launch the exchange in the coming months, according to Reuters. The firm aims to tap blockchain to increase the transparency of the gold exchange process, including the clearing and settling of trades.

With the news, TradeWind Markets joins companies such as Netagio, itBit and Euroclear as the latest to launch a project exploring the intersection of the gold market and blockchain tech.

Published in 2014, "Flash Boys" followed IEX's attempt to change what its founders perceived as a rigged stock market system favoring big Wall Street institutions.

www.coindesk.com/flash-boys-heroes-ta...

whoiam 8 september 2016 11:25

de 1350 nog vandaag breken?

B_B 8 september 2016 14:12

quote:
whoiam schreef op 8 september 2016 11:25:
de 1350 nog vandaag breken?

Waarschijnlijk 1360 vanavond.
Gisteren Mario voor Iphone
Vandaag een andere Mario voor Goud.

B_B 8 september 2016 14:16

Why Central Banks Are Quietly Loading Up on Gold Shares
September 6, 2016

Former Fed Chair "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke once famously said that he "didn't understand gold" and that it wasn't really money. We've seen that this disdain for the yellow stuff is common among the world's central banking class.

The systemically important "Too Big to Fail" banks don't much care for the idea of gold, either, although they certainly don't mind manipulating it when it suits their purposes.

So it's funny then, that central banks and commercial TBTF banks are grabbing undervalued gold and silver miners left and right. They've been doing it for the past five years, perhaps even longer.

No investor can afford to ignore this trend, because the profit potential here in some of the world's most undervalued stocks is staggering…

Central Banks Would Rather You Didn't Know

The Norges Bank, the Norwegian central bank, has filed to have its Q2 2016 U.S. equity holdings be given confidential treatment. That's according to smaulgld.com.

The website reported that the NB filed their SEC form 13F for Q2, but that it includes a blank information table. It appears the "deal" that NB has struck with the SEC is to file an Amended Form 13F a year later, providing the detailed holdings.

This is particularly interesting because the June 30, 2015, filing from last year reveals the central bank held a whopping 23 gold and silver miners.

What's more, if valued at recent share prices, that portfolio was worth nearly $1 billion.

And clearly, they'd rather you not know about it. So they may or may not own those shares still today, but just the fact the NB had the foresight to own that sector during a very weak period speaks volumes about their views on the sector.

Meanwhile, there is another central bank with considerable exposure to the precious metal sector, but they aren't going to the same lengths to keep it hush.

The Price of Gold Is Artificially Low Right Now

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is another central bank which, to Warren Buffett's dismay, seems to like the shiny yellow stuff, in a particular form at least.

While we're distracted by big "events," like when the SNB dropped the franc's peg to the euro and sent the Swiss currency (and export costs) soaring, it turns out that's just a sideshow.

The real news is what's quietly taking place at the SNB's trading desk.

Despite the SNB cutting its physical gold reserves by more than half between 1999 and 2008, the central bank has been buying precious metals stocks going back to at least 2013. Their mining shares portfolio was worth $500 million at the time.

The bank reported for the period ending June 30 that it held more than 30 gold and silver miners. If you value those holdings at recent prices, the portfolio runs a cool $1 billion.

But it's not just central banks that have a hand in this highly performing sector. Germany's struggling, derivatives-laden Deutsche Bank Ag USA (NYSE ADR: DB) disclosed in its own SEC 13F filing that it holds about $2 billion in gold and silver mining stocks.

By the way, Deutsche Bank analysts recently said that, because of the correlation between central bank monetary expansion and gold prices, gold should be closer to $1,700 right now.

And here's one of the main reasons I think they are so hot over this sector.
.....

moneymorning.com/2016/09/06/why-centr...

B_B 8 september 2016 14:22

Na de hedge funds gaan nu ook de pensioenfondsen, sovereign wealth funds en centrale banken in goud en goudaandelen.
De spelers worden steeds groter.

whoiam 8 september 2016 15:10

zakt nu toch ook wel serieus mee

[verwijderd] 9 september 2016 13:32

Dollar verliest aan kracht en toch zakt goud :-(

B_B 9 september 2016 14:28

Dollar is een belangrijke factor.

Maar velen wegen leiden naar Goud:
- verdere daling beurzen
- verdere daling olie
- verdere daling van de wereldeconomie
- achtereenvolgende natuurrampen
- oorlogen die steeds dichterbij komen (niet in tijd, maar qua afstand)

(suddenly dollar moves becomes insignificant)

whoiam 9 september 2016 15:37

verdere daling beurzen, niet zo zeker van de eerste maanden
olie, dat zal hetzelfde blijven denk ik
-verdere daling wereldeconomie, economie zal er niet makkelijker opkomen, maar bedrijven doen het niet slecht, groeilanden ook niet
natuurrampen, tjah, wie weet da :)
oorlogen, idem :)

dus ik zit nog klein beetje in goud, maar weet niet of ik dit nog lang moet doen :)

[verwijderd] 9 september 2016 16:20

Elliott wave : KD 1475 - 1500 of meer .

[verwijderd] 9 september 2016 16:34

www.iex.nl/nieuws/ANP-090916-152/Fed-...

Dit heeft met de daling te maken, de americanoos gooien m erin ..
Wel of geen verkiezingen .. de kandidaten zijn beide sowieso ONgeschikt.

B_B 12 september 2016 12:35

Begin daling/crash beurs wekt vaak ongeloof (een milde daling aan het begin van de crash).
Maar de "grote jongens" zullen de komende dagen de beurzen blijven drukken om ervoor te zorgen dat de FED bang wordt om de rente te verhogen.

Beursangt zorgt altijd voor een stijging van de Yen en uiteindelijk een daling van de Dollar.

B_B 12 september 2016 12:46

DOW zal onder de 17300 punten zijn voor 21 september 2016.

B_B 12 september 2016 13:09

USD/JPY - US Dollar Japanese Yen
101.93 -0.79 -0.77%
11:08:30 GM

[verwijderd] 12 september 2016 14:59

Hij brengt het alsof het al gebeurt is. Het is net een spook op de kermis die het maar niet lukt om de sukkels die betaald hebben bang te maken.
Bah. bah_bah

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