Milestones expected in 2022
Horizon: . Horizon will receive a worldwide exclusive license to the therapeutic and will be wholly responsible for clinical development and commercialization. Arrowhead will receive $40 million as an upfront payment from Horizon and is eligible to receive up to $660 million in potential development, regulatory and commercial milestones, and is further eligible to receive royalties in the low- to mid-teens range on net product sales.
Expectations in the range of 25 million dollars when a p1 cta is announced
Glaxo smith kline: Under the terms of the agreement, Arrowhead will receive an upfront payment of $120 million and is eligible for additional payments of $30 million at the start of Phase 2….a cta could/should be announced any day now.
Amgen: Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ARWR) today announced that it has earned a $20 million milestone payment from Amgen following the administration of the first dose of AMG 890, formerly referred to as ARO-LPA, in a Phase 2 clinical study.
Expectations in the 50 million dollar range and amgn has forecast a 2nd half 2022 ctaTakeda: "The deal made for Arrowhead for ARO-AAT with Takeda is a huge win. As I noted above, it is a deal that is totaled to be worth $1.04 billion. That's really good, but what's even more important is that Arrowhead obtains an upfront payment of $300 million."
A p3 cta should be worth north of 100 million dollars. Accelerated approval ups the ante
Jnj: while cta’s for jnj 2&3 are a possibility, and 20 million dollars was assigned to jnj 1 upon cta and dosing, the probability of a milestone is a question mark. Ditto hbv as p2 trials should extend into next year.
Other possible revenue generators include further partnerships, like the one expected for hif2, and/or a new indication brought to arwr by another pharma, much like the horizon/gout indication.
I count a solid 205 million dollars if trials advance as expected. Add that to the 120 million dollars that arwr received as an upfront payment from gsk. That equals 325 million dollars in expected revenue in 2022 not counting any “wild cards.” finally, from km on the last cc: “We continue to estimate our operating cash burn to be $60 million to $80 million per quarter in fiscal 2022, excluding any income incoming milestone payments from our partners.”
So we should expect a break even year or possibly, if all goes according to plan, a profitable 2022. Not too hard to make a case for arwr in the mid 40’s considering their cash on hand, over 600 million dollars, their ever expanding pipeline, and their financial prospects. This type of financial outlook is nearly unheard of in a mid to late stage bio.
Bron DSCRD :tadmak