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Katanga (KAT): een gigant in kobalt en koper

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DeZwarteRidder 23 juli 2017 17:14

An Update On Katanga Mining
Apr. 20, 2017 2:55 PM ET|
137 comments|
About: Katanga Mining Ltd. (KATFF), Includes: FTMDF, GLNCY
Matt Bohlsen

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Summary

Glencore increased their stake in Katanga Mining from 75% to 86.33%.

Katanga Mining updated that the mine will now ramp to 30,000tpa cobalt (previously 22,000tpa). Copper production to ramp to 300,000tpa.

Katanga Mining updated that the mine will now re-start in September 2017 (previously 2018).

Katanga Mining (OTCPK:KATFF) - Price = CAD 0.38, USD 0.29

I first wrote about Katanga Mining back on January 1, 2017, when the stock was largely unknown to many investors and trading at just CAD 0.13 (USD 0.09) per share. For a background on the stock you can read my January 1, 2017, article "Katanga Mining Is A Potential Turnaround Story."

The key takeaways are the following:

Katanga Mining's Kamoto mine has large high grade copper and cobalt reserves in the Democratic Republic of Congo (NYSE:DRC).
Katanga has a 75% interest in the Kamoto copper-cobalt mine, the other 25% is owned by La Generale des Carrieres et des Mines (GCM) and La Société Immobilière du Congo (SIMCO) owns the other 25% (DRC Government company').
The mine has 90.9Mt proved and probable reserves, with very good average grades of 4.14% copper and 0.45% cobalt. Or 207.3Mt measured and indicated resource at an estimated grade of 3.53% copper and 0.52% cobalt.
The KOV open pit and Kamoto underground mine stopped production in 2015 due to the low copper prices, and is undergoing a modernization of the processing plant to significantly lower the cost of production.
The mine was expected to re-open in 2018, ramping to 300,000tpa copper and 22,000tpa cobalt production.
Glencore are backing Katanga with a huge loan, and previously had a 75% stake in the Katanga mining share float.

Since my January article the following significant events have changed:

The cobalt spot price has climbed very strongly as shown in the chart above, rising from around USD15/lb to USD25/lb.
Glencore (OTC:OTC:GLNCF) (OTCPK:GLNCY) increased their stake in Katanga Mining from 75% to 86.33%.
The Mashamba East open pit PFS has resulted in a 26.3 Mt increase in probable mineral reserves.
Katanga Mining updated that the mine will now ramp to 30,000tpa cobalt (previously 22,000tpa). Copper production will ramp to 300,000tpa.
Katanga Mining updated that the mine will now re-start in September 2017 (previously 2018).

Source: Katanga Mining March 2017 Technical report (309 pages)

Katanga's copper grade of 4.14% is very high

The chart below shows global copper grades averaging in 2017 around 1% and declining. With 90.9Mt Proved and Probable reserves at 4.14% copper grade, Katanga Mining has a world-class copper resource, with grades four times higher than average. The cobalt at 0.45% also is very good, and Katanga has the world's largest cobalt reserves.

Global copper grades declining and a copper deficit forecast later this decade

Source

Valuation

Katanga Mining is not currently producing. Their market cap is CAD 743m. The current market cap/lbs cobalt reserves ratio is just 0.47, one of the lowest among peers. Off course Katanga Mining debt is not included in this calculation, but neither is their copper. Fortune Minerals (OTCQX:FTMDF) has the third lowest ratio at 0.56.

Based on the latest updates from Katanga Mining my model has a price target for end 2019 at full production (300,00tpa Cu, 30,000tpa Co) of CAD 2.70. This is based on a copper price of USD 2.75/lb, and a much reduced cost of production to USD 0.87/lb net of cobalt by-product credits (due to cobalt's stellar price rise). I based the 0.87/lb on comments from Glencore's CEO at the Q1 earnings call conference discussing their group wide copper cost of production. If I'm more conservative and estimate USD 1.25/lb cost of production then the price target drops to CAD 1.60. So for now my price target is a range from CAD 1.60-2.70 until I get more clarity on the forecast or actual cost of production.

Long-term debt is at CAD4.51b as at end 2016, with interest expense of CAD$483m pa.

Risks

Please refer back to my January 1 article, linked at the top.

Conclusion

Things just keep getting better for Katanga Mining and their world-class copper-cobalt mine in the DRC. The cobalt spot price has almost doubled since January, their reserves have been increased, and their planned cobalt output has been increased from 22,000 to 30,000tpa. Most importantly their re-start has been brought forward three months to September 2017.

The stock price has tripled in the past three months as a result.

Given the copper price has only moved sideways, should copper prices move higher that will help further. However, I think we may have to wait for 2019 or 2020 for copper to really boom based on the demand and supply picture.

The stock still has plenty of risk as it operates in the DRC and has a mountain of debt. However with production set to re-start in only a mater of five months, the current picture looks very bright indeed. Glencore seems to agree, having recently increased their stake in Katanga Mining.

As usual all comments are welcome.

Disclosure: I am/we are long KATANGA MINING (TSX:KAT), FORTUNE MINERALS (TSX:FT), GLENCORE (LSX:GLEN).

seekingalpha.com/article/4063861-upda...

DeZwarteRidder 31 juli 2017 20:33

July 31 (Reuters) - Katanga Mining Ltd

* Katanga Mining announces independent directors' review and restatement of certain financial statements

* Katanga Mining Ltd - has established a blackout on trading by directors, officers and other insiders of Katanga?

* Katanga Mining-?independent directors concluded certain financial statements and related management's discussion & analysis will likely require restatement?

* Katanga Mining Ltd - ?review relating to historical accounting is not expected to affect anticipated timing for commissioning of wol project?

* Katanga Mining-review expected to cause filing of unaudited interim financial statements for 3 & 6 months ended June 30 to be delayed beyond Aug 14 deadline?

* Katanga Mining-?intends to continue blackout on trading by directors, officers of co until Q2 filings, restated financial statements have been filed?

* Katanga Mining-?review related to accounting relating to production of copper cathode among others, which may impact valuation of inventories & property Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage:

kneut 12 januari 2018 10:29

waarom ligt de koers stil ? vanaf 09:33 uur

Koers
1,47 EUR
-0,13
-8,13 %
Tijd
09:33:02
Handelsdatum
12.01.2018

[verwijderd] 12 januari 2018 13:17

Geen idee. Ook wel nieuwsgierig...Gebeurde een maand een gelden ook al:
www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid...

Verklaring ???
business.financialpost.com/news/fp-st...

Handel je op Frankfurt? Geen Toronto? Waarom?

[verwijderd] 12 januari 2018 13:49

Op 12 december was in Toronto een dergelijke snelle koersbeweging wel degelijk de reden:
www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboar...

Misschien dat er straks ook iets op Stockhouse verschijnt:

Vaak wel 18 januari 2018 14:14

MMA haalt kobalt en koper uit de grond in Zambia. Een van de oprichters van Katanga is dáár de CEO en alom bewierookte Silbthorpe zit daar in het bestuur. Heeft allerlei velden in Afrika ontdekt. Staat op 30 cent nu. Zitten in dé kopergordel van Afrika. Klinkt beter dan Katanga als ik oa bovenstaande posts lees.

DeZwarteRidder 18 januari 2018 14:23

quote:
Arie40 schreef op 18 januari 2018 14:14:
MMA haalt kobalt en koper uit de grond in Zambia. Een van de oprichters van Katanga is dáár de CEO en alom bewierookte Silbthorpe zit daar in het bestuur. Heeft allerlei velden in Afrika ontdekt. Staat op 30 cent nu. Zitten in dé kopergordel van Afrika. Klinkt beter dan Katanga als ik oa bovenstaande posts lees.

Midnight Sun Mining Corp. is an exploration-stage company. The Company is engaged in acquiring, exploring and evaluating mineral properties and joint venturing or developing the properties further or disposing of them when their evaluation is completed. The Company operates through the segment, being the acquisition and exploration of mineral properties. The Company holds an Option Agreement with Kam Chuen Resource Holdings Ltd., to acquire interest in approximately two mineral exploration permit licenses located near Solwezi, Zambia. The Solwezi Licenses covers an area of approximately 500 square kilometers and is located in the Zambian Copperbelt over 15 kilometers from the producing Kinsanshi copper/gold mine and approximately 450 kilometers northwest of the Zambian capital of Lusaka. The Company completed approximately 610 meters of diamond drilling in over five holes and conducted geochemical and geophysical programs at Solwezi project.

aandeeltje! 23 januari 2018 11:01

www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2018...

aandeeltje! 23 januari 2018 11:11

Niet goedkoop het aandeel katanga. De aandeelhoudersstructuur met een zeer grote meerderheid bij glencore en eveneens een grote leningmaakt mij terughoudend.

DeZwarteRidder 23 januari 2018 11:53

quote:
aandeeltje! schreef op 23 januari 2018 11:11:
Niet goedkoop het aandeel katanga. De aandeelhoudersstructuur met een zeer grote meerderheid bij glencore en eveneens een grote leningmaakt mij terughoudend.

Jouw mentaliteit is gewoon niet geschikt voor het nemen van risico's, dus blijf maar lekker bij Ahold en Shell.

aandeeltje! 23 januari 2018 12:15

quote:
DeZwarteRidder schreef op 23 januari 2018 11:53:
[...]
Jouw mentaliteit is gewoon niet geschikt voor het nemen van risico's, dus blijf maar lekker bij Ahold en Shell.

Haha grapjas daar zit ik niet in hoor. Ik zoek de risicos op, maar zeker gecalculeerd. Gaat me goed af hoor...en zeker niet zonder risico's.

Just lucky 23 januari 2018 15:29

quote:
aandeeltje! schreef op 23 januari 2018 11:01:
www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2018...
Een dergelijk bericht heb ik al meerdere keren zien langskomen. Ze proberen zo zieltjes te winnen....Ik denk, gezien de prachtige performance, dat weinig mensen zich zullen aanmelden.

seadoc 23 januari 2018 21:25

als je long bent op kobalt, kun je toch moeilijk om katanga heen.

kneut 29 januari 2018 08:49

Wel bizar dat de koers zo daalt..weet er iemand een oorzaak?

DeZwarteRidder 29 januari 2018 09:09

quote:
kneut schreef op 29 januari 2018 08:49:
Wel bizar dat de koers zo daalt..weet er iemand een oorzaak?

Is volkomen normaal voor dit soort aandelen.

kneut 30 januari 2018 16:41

nu gaat het wel erg hard..kost me veel geld nu

DeZwarteRidder 30 januari 2018 16:43

quote:
kneut schreef op 30 januari 2018 16:41:
nu gaat het wel erg hard..kost me veel geld nu

Dit zijn de mooie koopmomenten.

kneut 30 januari 2018 17:34

had ik vanmorgen gedaan

RW1963 30 januari 2018 18:10

quote:
DeZwarteRidder schreef op 30 januari 2018 16:43:
[...]
Dit zijn de mooie koopmomenten.

Ga ik doen ;-)

kneut 31 januari 2018 14:41

heel raar koers werd niet aangegeven al 1,10 vanaf 8 uur denk doe gewoon bod op 1,15 .net .gelijk verkocht en koers omhoog

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