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voda 23 juli 2015 19:01

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Russia faces longest recession in decades with plunging oil

Fuelfix reported that for an economy that lives and dies by crude prices, the latest downturn in the world oil market means Russia’s recession may stretch into next year for the longest slump in two decades.

Russia’s first economic slump since 2009 looked like it would plateau as oil gained 40% from a six-month low in January. Crude’s recovery has faltered in recent weeks, raising questions about government assurances that the economy will return to growth in 2016 and further squeezing a budget already on course for its widest deficit in five years.

According to the central bank, oil jitters will test the optimism of President Vladimir Putin, who’sdeclared that Russia had put the worst of the economic crisis behind it, and heap pressure on his regime before early parliamentary elections in September next year. Russia, which ING Bank NV estimates needs oil at USD 80 a barrel to balance its budget, will endure a two-year economic contraction if crude prices remain at USD 60 through 2016.

Mr Dmitry Polevoy, a Moscow-based economist at ING, said that “Russia will face a recession or stagnation next year if oil is near USD 50. It will likely be necessary to cut spending more, to postpone a part of military spending and to use what remains in the Reserve Fund.”

According to Mr Polevoy, reeling from a currency collapse last year and sanctions over Ukraine, the government has already cut budget outlays by 10% and dipped into one of its sovereign wealth funds, the Reserve Fund, to help cover the shortfall. Lower oil prices mean that Russia may potentially need financing from its other wealth fund, the National Wellbeing Fund.

The most severe stress test conducted by the central bank, which assumed oil at USD 40 and an economic slump of 7%, found that 187 lenders may face a capital shortage of RUB 0.6 trillion while the share of non-performing loans more than doubles to 17.7%. The economy will contract for a third year in 2017 if oil remains at USD 40, the central bank said in June.

The government predicts economic growth at 2.3% in 2016 after improving this year’s forecast to a 2.8% drop from a previously projected decline of 3%. Growth averaged 7% during Putin’s first two terms as president in 2000-2008.

Source : Fuelfix

voda 23 juli 2015 19:03

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UAE cuts fuel subsidy as oil drop hits Arab economies

Bloomberg reported that the United Arab Emirates, the third-biggest OPEC producer, will link gasoline and diesel prices to global oil markets starting next month, becoming the first country in the oil-rich Persian Gulf to remove transport fuel subsidies.

The Ministry of Energy said in a statement that fuel prices will be deregulated as of August 1st. Diesel prices will also be linked to global markets, and are initially expected to decline. Prices for both fuels will be announced on the 28th day of each month.

Gasoline is now subsidized in the UAE, the 2nd biggest Arab economy and home to about 6% of the world’s oil reserves. Unleaded gasoline 98 octane in the UAE sells for AED 1.83 a liter, according to prices on the ministry’s website. The US price of premium unleaded gasoline is USD 3.18 a gallon or 84 cents a liter, according to AAA, the biggest US auto group. That compares with 16 cents in Saudi Arabia, the largest OPEC producer.

Mr Nasser Saidi, former chief economist at Dubai International Financial Centre and head of Nasser Saidi and Associates, said that “There was no reason to subsidize in a country that is as rich as the UAE. All manufacturing and industry which is highly energy intensive will need to adjust. People will now have to think twice before buying gas guzzling cars.”

Mr Suhail Al Mazrouei, the UAE energy minister, said in February that “Persian Gulf members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries provide some the largest per capita energy subsidies in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund. Subsidies have cost UAE state-owned energy companies about USD 1 billion a year over the last decade.”

The UAE, which doesn’t impose income tax or measures such as value-added taxes, comprises seven sheikhdoms including Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the Persian Gulf business hub. Expatriates comprise about 80% of the country’s residents.

Mr Al Mazrouei said in the statement that “The change is part of the government’s plan in diversifying sources of income, strengthening the economy and increasing its competitiveness in addition to building a strong economy that is not dependent on government subsidies.” A committee will review fuel prices every month.

According to Deutsche Bank AG estimates, global oil prices have dropped almost 50% in the past year to USD 56.57 a barrel today as increased production from the Middle East to the US swelled supplies, leaving a global surplus. The 2015 break-even crude price for the UAE is about USD 65.50 a barrel.

Source : Bloomberg

voda 23 juli 2015 19:03

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Total's earnings hits by low oil prices in Q2

France's largest oil company Total SA is scheduled to release its second-quarter earnings Wednesday before the market opens. Here’s what you need to know:

EARNINGS FORECAST: Median adjusted net profit for the Q2 is forecast to be USD 2.75 billion by eight analysts polled by FactSet compared with USD 3.2 billion for the same period a year ago.

SALES FORECAST: Analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast total sales of USD 37.95 billion.

REACTION TO OIL PRICE: Oil prices are about half of what they were a year ago and the company’s management has announced measures to cut costs. After three months, investors and analysts are expecting an update on the impact those measures have had.

OIL OUTPUT: The company’s chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said three months ago, the company would raise daily output by 8% from 2.15 million of barrels of oil equivalent a day. Seven analysts polled by FactSet estimate output was at 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in the Q2.

REFINING MARGINS: As oil prices have collapsed, operating margins on oil refining have widened, providing companies like Total with a way to smooth out the negative effect of the low price on their bottom line.

YAMAL: Total has embarked with partner Novatek on a USD 27 billion investment to develop the Yamal gas field in Northern Russia. Because of US sanctions against Russia, the joint venture is seeking financing from Chinese and Russian banks. Total’s management had announced a financing plan would be ready by the end of the first half of the year so Mr. Pouyanne will be asked to unveil further details.

Source : The Wall Street Journal

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voda 23 juli 2015 19:07

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Oil future falls but trades above USD 50 a barrel

Published on Wed, 22 Jul 2015 105 times viewed

Market Watch reported that oil futures fell on Wednesday but US prices traded above USD 50 a barrel after a weekly report from the US government showed that crude supplies unexpectedly rose, but gasoline stockpiles fell.

Data on implied-gasoline demand over the last four weeks showed a jump compared with a year ago and growth in China’s oil demand remained strong in June.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery CLU5, -1.87% traded at USD 50.36 a barrel, down 50 cents, or 1%. It was trading at USD 49.98 before the supply data. September Brent crude LCOU5, -0.95% on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 28 cents or 0.5%, to USD 56.76 a barrel.

Early Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration reported a climb of 2.5 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ended July 17. Analysts polled by Platts forecast a crude-stock fall of 1.9 million barrels, while the American Petroleum Institute Tuesday said supplies climbed by 2.3 million barrels.

Mr John Macaluso, an analyst at Tyche Capital Advisors, said that “To see a build this time of year is very telling for the direction of crude. Any close under USD 50 today will be a dominant headwind heading into the end of the week.”

The data also showed, however, that motor gasoline supplied over the last 4 weeks, which is an indication of demand, averaged 9.6 million barrels a day, that is up 6.9% from the same time a year ago.

Gasoline supplies fell 1.7 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil, tacked on 200,000 barrels last week, according to the EIA. Analysts surveyed by Platts expected gasoline stocks to be unchanged for the week, and distillate inventories to rise by 1.9 million barrels.

On Nymex, August gasoline edged down by 2.9 cents, or 1.5%, to USD 1.892 a gallon. August heating oil was nearly flat at USD 1.68 a gallon.

August natural gas traded at USD 2.851 per million British thermal units, down 3.1 cents or 1.2%, after climbing 2.1% a day earlier. The EIA’s weekly data on natural-gas supplies are due Thursday.

Meanwhile, China’s oil demand isn’t showing signs of softening.

China’s apparent petroleum product demand grew steadily in June, up 6.5% from a year earlier and 2% from May, according to Standard Chartered. Saudi Arabia’s exports of crude to China also grew 80% on-month in June to 1.3 million barrels a day, the highest since January 2013.

On July 30th, the Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Abdalla Salem el-Badri will hold a meeting with Russian Energy Minister Mr Alexander Novak to discuss the oil and gas markets.

While Russia and OPEC share a common interest in wanting to boost oil prices, the meeting is unlikely to result in any significant policy changes, analyst Tim Evans at Citi Futures said. He also said that oil prices appear to be settling in a narrow trading range this week.

Source : Market Watch

voda 23 juli 2015 21:28

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Olieprijs sluit lager

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De prijs voor een vat ruwe olie is donderdag lager gesloten, vanwege tekenen dat het wereldwijde overaanbod niet binnen afzienbare tijd zal dalen.

De prijs voor een vat ruwe olie sloot reeds woensdag voor het eerst sinds begin april onder $50 per vat, nadat uit cijfers van de Amerikaanse Energy Information Administration bleek dat de olievoorraden in de VS onverwacht zijn gestegen. Dit voedde de zorgen in de markt over de hoge productie van de Organisatie van olie-exporterende landen, de Opec, en de slecht beperkte groei van de wereldwijde vraag.

De Amerikaanse Energy Information Administration (EIA) meldde woensdag dat de wekelijkse olievoorraden in de VS onverwacht zijn gestegen met 2,5 miljoen vaten. De organisatie meldde tevens dat de voorraden ruwe olie in Cushing, Oklahoma vorige week zijn gestegen met 0,8 miljoen vaten.

Volgens Thomas Pugh, analist bij Capital Economics, leidt het rapport tot verdere neerwaartse druk op de olieprijs. "We verwachten dat ook het komend jaar sprake zal zijn van een zwaar overaanbod, waardoor de prijzen onder druk zullen blijven staan."

Ondertussen blijft de wereldwijde olieproductie robuust. Consultancy Energy Aspects schat dat de wereldwijde voorraden in juni zijn gestegen met 0,69 miljoen vaten per dag, tot 95,08 miljoen vaten per dag.

"Door het verhogen van de productie tot zijn hoogste niveau in drie jaar zorgt de Opec ervoor dat de markt ruimschoots is voorzien van olie", stellen analisten van Commerzbank., eraan toevoegend dat zij niet voorzien dat de organisatie op de korte termijn zijn productie zal wijzigen.

De septemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot donderdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,71 lager op $48,45.

- Door Patrick Buis; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31 20 571 52 00; patrick.buis@wsj.com

[verwijderd] 24 juli 2015 01:27

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Oil Warning: The Crash Could Be the Worst in More Than 45 Years.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-...

voda 24 juli 2015 16:02

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This oil crash could be the worst in more than 45 yrs - Morgan Stanley

Published on Fri, 24 Jul 2015 46 times viewed

Morgan Stanley has been pretty pessimistic about oil prices in 2015, drawing comparisons to the some of the worst oil slumps of the past three decades. The current downturn could even rival the iconic price crash of 1986, analysts had warned but definitely no worse.

From Morgan Stanley: “We have been expecting the current downturn to be as severe as the one in 1986 the worst for at least 45 years but not worse than that. Still, if oil prices follow the path suggested by the forward curve, our thesis may yet prove too optimistic.”

Until recently, confidence in a strong recovery for oil prices and oil companies had been pretty high, wrote analysts including Martijn Rats and Haythem Rashed, in a report to investors Wednesday. That confidence was based on four premises and only three have proven true.

Source : The Financial Post

voda 24 juli 2015 16:11

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US natural gas prices up as weather heats up - EIA

The US Energy Information Administration reported Thursday morning that US natural gas stocks increased by 61 billion cubic feet for the week ending July 17th. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a storage injection (increase) of 70 billion cubic feet. The five-year average for the week is an increase of around 53 billion cubic feet.

Natural gas futures for September delivery traded up about 3 cents in advance of the EIA’s report, at around USD 2.91 per million BTUs and rose to about USD 2.96 following release of the report. Last Thursday, natural gas closed at USD 2.85 per million BTUs and over the past five trading days, natural gas futures peaked at Thursday’s USD 2.96. The 52-week low for natural gas futures is USD 2.59. One year ago, the price for a million BTUs was around USD 3.88.

The EIA last week reclassified some working gas as base gas and that decreased working gas stockpiles by about 7 billion cubic feet.

Demand for natural gas is expected to rise as hot weather spreads across the Midwest, the Plains states and the southeastern United States. The hot weather is expected to last through most of next week as well.

Stockpiles are about 28% above their levels of a year ago and 2.9% above the 5 year average.

The EIA reported that US working stocks of natural gas totaled about 2.828 trillion cubic feet, around 81 billion cubic feet above the 5 year average of 2.747 trillion cubic feet and 622 billion cubic feet above last year’s total for the same period. Working gas in storage totaled 2.206 trillion cubic feet for the same period a year ago.

Here is how stocks of the largest US natural gas producers reacted to the latest report:

Exxon Mobil Corporation, the country’s largest producer of natural gas, traded down about 0.2%, at USD 81.61 in a 52-week range of USD 81.43 to USD 104.76.

Chesapeake Energy Corporation traded down about 2.5% to USD 8.75, a new 52-week low. The stock’s 52-week high is USD 27.58.

EOG Resources Inc traded up about 0.2% to USD 76.25. The 52 week range is USD 75.76 to USD 116.93.

Source : 24|7 Wall St

voda 24 juli 2015 16:13

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WTI oil futures stabilize below USD 50 with supplies in focus

Investing.com reported that West Texas Intermediate oil futures rebounded from the previous session\'s steep declines on Thursday but prices held below the USD 50 level amid ongoing concerns over a global supply glut.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for September delivery tacked on 26 cents or 0.53%, to trade at USD 49.45 a barrel during US morning hours. On Wednesday, Nymex oil futures fell to USD 49.04, a level not seen since April 2nd, before closing at USD 49.19, down USD 1.67 or 3.28%.

Oil's losses on Wednesday came after the release of disappointing weekly data on US oil inventories.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 2.5 million barrels last week to 463.9 million. Market analysts\' expected a crude-stock fall of 2.3 million.

Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the key delivery point for Nymex crude, increased by 813,000 barrels last week, above forecasts for an increase of 300,000.

New York-traded oil futures have been under heavy pressure in recent weeks as worries over high domestic US oil production weighed.

According to industry research group Baker Hughes, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the US declined by seven last week to 638, snapping two weeks of gains.

However, US oil production has held around 9.6 million barrels a day, the highest level since the early 1970s.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for September delivery inched up 9 cents, or 0.17%, to trade at USD 56.23 a barrel after hitting an intraday low of USD 55.90, the weakest level since July 7th. A day earlier, Brent lost 91 cents, or 1.6%, to end at USD 56.13.

London-traded Brent prices have been weighed by concerns over a resumption of Iranian oil exports, which could add to a global supply glut.

Iran and 6 world powers reached a long-awaited nuclear deal last week that would end sanctions on Tehran in exchange for curbs on the country's disputed nuclear program.

Iran reportedly hoards 30 million barrels of oil in its reserves ready for export. However, analysts largely estimate that Iranian crude exports could take several months to ramp up significantly.

Global oil production is outpacing demand following a boom in US shale oil production and after a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last year not to cut production.

The spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at USD 6.78 a barrel, compared to USD 7.09 by close of trade on Wednesday.

Source : Investing.com

[verwijderd] 24 juli 2015 18:57

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Oil Warning: The Crash Could Be the Worst in More Than 45 Years

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-...

voda 24 juli 2015 21:54

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Olieprijs sluit lager

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De olieprijs is vrijdag lager gesloten. Wekelijkse cijfers over olieboringen lieten een toename van het aantal actieve boorplatformen in Amerika zien, wat aangeeft dat producenten meer investeren.

De Amerikaanse olieprijzen waren donderdag ten opzichte van het hoogste punt in juni met meer dan 20% gedaald, wat aangeeft dat er sprake is van een zogenaamde 'bear market'. Eerder dit jaar stegen de prijzen vanwege de verwachting dat er minder geboord en minder geinvesteerd zou worden. In de recente weken daalden de prijzen weer, aangezien het wereldwijde overaanbod niet lijkt af te nemen.

Baker Hughes zei dat het aantal actieve booreilanden met 21 is toegenomen in de afgelopen week tot 659. Sinds de olieprijzen vorig jaar gingen dalen is het aantal sterk afgenomen van een piek van 1.609 in oktober 2014.

De future voor levering van een vat ruwe olie is vrijdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,31 lager gesloten op $48,14.

Door Levien de Feijter; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst: +31-20-5715200; levien.defeijter@wsj.com

voda 25 juli 2015 15:44

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Oil and gas crunch pushes Russia closer to fiscal crisis

Published on Sat, 25 Jul 2015 69 times viewed

Russia has fallen into full-blown depression and faces a mounting fiscal crisis as oil and gas revenues plummet.

Output from country’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom has collapsed by 19pc over the past year as demand shrivels in Europe, falling to levels not seen since the creation of the company at the end of the Cold War.

A report by Sberbank warned that Gazprom’s revenues are likely to drop by almost a third to USD 106bn this year from USD 146bn in 2014, seriously eroding Russia’s economic base.

Gazprom alone generates a tenth of Russian GDP and a fifth of all budget revenues. It will be several years at best before the country benefits from a new pipeline deal with China.

Russia is already in dire straits. The economy has contracted by 4.9pc over the past year and the downturn is certain to drag on as oil prices crumble after a tentative rally. Half of Russia’s tax income comes from oil and gas.

Core inflation is running at 16.7pc and real incomes have fallen by 8.4pc over the past year, a far deeper cut to living standards than occurred following the Lehman crisis. This time there is no recovery in sight as Western sanctions remain in place and US shale production limits any rebound in global oil prices.

Mr Dmitri Petrov from Nomura said that “We’ve seen the full impact of the crisis in the second quarter. It is now hitting light industry and manufacturing.”

Mr Lubomir Mitov from Unicredit said that “Russia is going to be in a very difficult fiscal situation by 2017. By the end of next year there won’t be any money left in the oil reserve fund and there is a humongous deficit in the pension fund. They are running a budget deficit of 3.7pc of GDP but without developed capital markets Russia can't really afford to run a deficit at all.”

A report by the Higher School of Economics in Moscow warned that a quarter of Russia’s 83 regions are effectively in default as they struggle to cope with salary increases and welfare costs dumped on them by President Vladimir Putin before his election in 2012. Mr Mitov said that “The regions in the far east are basically bankrupt.”

Russian companies have to refinance USD 86 billion in foreign currency debt in the second half of this year. They cannot easily roll this over since the country is still cut off from global capital markets, so they must rely on swap funding from the central bank.

The authorities can cover part of this from the country’s current account surplus, but a “financing gap” of USD 10 billion to USD 15 billion a quarter remains. This implies a slow depletion of the central bank’s foreign reserves.

The official reserves have dropped from USD 524 billion to USD 361 billion since the Ukraine crisis first erupted in late 2014. Unicredit said the true figure is nearer USD 340 billion once other commitments are stripped out.

Companies and banks have already slashed their hard currency debt by USD 170 billion in a drastic deleveraging over the past 18 months. This whittles away the dollar debt burden, but at a terrible long-term cost for Russia’s productive economy.

Source : The Telegraph

voda 25 juli 2015 15:50

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Low oil price here to stay as Russia bleeds capital - Moody’s

Published on Sat, 25 Jul 2015 65 times viewed

According to Moody’s Investors Service, low oil prices are just the tip of what ails Russia.

With its dependence on commodities and a slump in investment, Russia will have a hard time recovering from its record economic slump as global oil prices are bound to remain lower for a long time, Mr Yves Lemay, managing director in the sovereign risk group at Moody’s in London, said in an interview on Wednesday. As much as a quarter of Russia’s gross domestic product and two-thirds of its exports are linked to the energy industry, according to the rating company.

Mr Lemay said that “Our assessment is that low oil prices are here to stay. Without major investment in the infrastructure, modernizing the equipment, oil production in Russia is unlikely to rise and may slowly decline in the coming years.”

Crippled by its first recession since 2009, Russia is starved of investment as US and European Union sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine limit access to international capital markets and curb imports of drilling technology. Fixed-capital investment has fallen for 18 months, and the Economy Ministry predicts capital outflows may reach USD 90 billion in 2015 after last year’s record of more than USD 150 billion.

While Russia’s oil output has remained above 10 million barrels a day for almost six years and reached a post-Soviet record in January, sanctions have raised the cost of borrowing and barred technology exports needed for new, more complex oil projects. OAO Rosneft, the world’s biggest publicly traded oil company by volume, and gas producer OAO Novatek are among firms targeted for Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

Mr Lemay said that “Lower oil prices, combined with capacity constraints, are likely to affect and constrain Russia’s growth prospects in the coming years.”

Crude will average USD 60 a barrel this year, potentially going as high as USD 65, according to the latest prediction by the credit assessor. This forecast and the assumption of an increase “of a few dollars” next year may be compromised by the fact that China’s economic growth is moderating, Iran may return to global oil markets and U.S. shale producers show greater resilience than anticipated to lower prices.

The ruble may come under pressure again because of depressed oil prices and the risk of another flare-up in hostilities in eastern Ukraine, according to Lemay. The currency has gained 5.8% against the dollar to become this year’s best performer among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, rebounding from a rout in 2014 when it lost almost half its value.

Source : Bloomberg

voda 27 juli 2015 20:16

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Hedge funds bearish on US oil since 2010 - Kemp

Published on Mon, 27 Jul 2015 45 times viewed

According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Hedge funds are more bearish about the outlook for U.S. oil prices than at any time for almost five years.

Hedge funds and other money managers had a net long position in WTI-linked futures and options equivalent to just 118 million barrels of oil on July 21st, down from a recent high of 294 million barrels 11 weeks earlier.

The net position was the smallest since September 2010. Money managers interested in oil have a long bias. So the small net long indicates an unusually high level of bearishness among hedge funds.

Sentiment has turned bearish as a series of negative factors hit the market in quick succession, including the nuclear agreement with Iran, China's stock market tumble, rising output from OPEC, an uptick in the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States, and flush oil stockpiles.

Hedge funds have cut their long positions since May by just over 100 million barrels from 388 million to 281 million. On the short side of the market, money managers have added almost 70 million barrels to take their total to almost 163 million barrels.

The ratio of long to short positions, at just 1.7 to 1, is the lowest since September 2010, and has fallen from more than 4 to 1 over the last 11 weeks.

There is scope for hedge funds to cut their net long position even further. Gross long positions were still almost 65 million barrels above their five-year low on July 21st while gross short positions were 47 million barrels below their 5 year high.

It is likely that the net long position has already fallen further, since the data refer to positions at the end of trading on July 21st and oil prices continued to fall throughout the rest of the week.

The critical question is at what point the hedge funds start to square up their short positions in order to take their profits.

Source : Reuters

voda 27 juli 2015 20:19

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Oil prices rout sets to inflict real pain on Russia - Report

Oilprice.com reported that Russia may have though it was out of the woods this past spring when oil prices started to rise, but the onset of another bear market for oil presents serious economic and financial threats for the country.

Russia is facing a mounting fiscal crisis as the combination of low oil prices and western sanctions continue to take their toll. For a country that gets about 50% of its budget revenues from oil and gas, the sudden collapse of oil prices since June, Brent is now trading at USD 55 per barrel, threatens to drag the Russian economy down to lower depths.

The drop in oil prices since June is not entirely unrelated to Russian actions.

Russia decided to cooperate with the West in reaching a nuclear deal with Iran, which contributed to the fall in oil prices as markets expect new Iranian crude to be forthcoming over the next few months and into next year. Although the cooperation amounts to a self-inflicted wound, it also pushes several strategic objectives forward for Russia. A disarmed Iran removes the justification for a U.S.-backed missile defense program in Europe, a plan vociferously opposed by Russia.

And there are also economic benefits to the Iran deal for Russia, despite low oil prices. It opens up business opportunities in Iran for Russian companies. More importantly, cooperation with the West created good will, and US President Mr Barack Obama even thanked Russian President Mr Vladimir Putin for his help. This could lead, or at least contribute to, the dismantling of western sanctions imposed upon Russia for its involvement in Ukraine.

That couldn’t come soon enough. Russia is running a large deficit and its foreign exchange reserves are depleting, down from USD 524 to USD 361 billion or worse, depending on the accuracy of official statistics.

To make matters worse, natural gas production has taken a hit. Weak domestic demand and a shrinking export market have cut into Gazprom’s production, which fell by 19% in June compared to the same month in 2014.

Since Gazprom accounts for 10% of Russia’s economic activity, the setback is damaging to the Russian economy. In fact, Gazprom’s production dropped by 12.9% in the first half of 2015, YoY. Gazprom may only take in USD 106 billion in revenue this year, down almost a third from USD 146 billion in 2014.

Source : Oilprice.com

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voda 27 juli 2015 21:24

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Olieprijs sluit lager

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De olieprijs is de week lager begonnen, onder druk van de scherpe daling van de Chinese aandelenmarkten en de aanhoudende zorgen over het overaanbod in de wereld.

De septemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot maandag op de New York Mercantile Exchange 75 dollarcent, of 1,6%, lager op $47,39.

De olie-benchmarks noteren inmiddels weer op hun laagste niveaus in maanden en staan onder druk vanwege het wereldwijde overaanbod. Analisten van vermogensbeheerder PVM schatten in dat de wereldwijde oliemarkt in 2015 gemiddeld een overaanbod van 2 miljoen vaten per dag heeft, hetgeen de grootste overbevoorrading zou zijn in bijna 20 jaar.

Inmiddels stijgt ook het aantal actieve boorplatforms in de Verenigde Staten weer, na maanden van dalingen. Uit de meest recente cijfers van Baker Hughes blijkt dat het aantal actieve boorplatforms vorige week met 21 is gestegen, de grootste toename in bijna anderhalf jaar.

"Er zijn oliefirma's die nu winstgevend kunnen zijn bij extreem lage olieprijzen", stellen analisten van Capital Economics. "De afname van de kosten om naar olie te boren, betekent dat firma's kunnen blijven produceren bij de huidige prijzen."

De grootste druk kwam maandag van de forse daling op de Chinese aandelenmarkten, met een dip van 8,5% voor de toonaangevende Shanghai Composite-index vanwege de angst dat Beijing zijn recente ingezette stimuleringsmaatregelen voor de aandelenmarkten al weer inperkt.

"De grote verliezen op de Chinese aandelenmarkten dragen bij aan de zorgen dat de Chinese vraag naar olie afneemt", schreven analisten van Commerzbank maandag.

Door Marleen Groen; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31 20 5715 200; marleen.groen@wsj.com

voda 28 juli 2015 16:18

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BP boekt verlies in tweede kwartaal

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--BP plc (BP) heeft in het tweede kwartaal een verlies geboekt, vanwege de lage olieprijs en de miljardenschikking voor de olieramp met de Deepwater Horizon vijf jaar geleden, zo blijkt dinsdag tijdens de presentatie van de tweedekwartaalresultaten van het concern.

Het verlies op basis van geschatte actuele kosten (een winstcijfer dat overeenkomt met de nettowinstcijfers van Amerikaanse oliebedrijven) kwam uit op $6,27 miljard, versus een winst van $3,18 miljard in dezelfde periode een jaar eerder.

De scherpe daling van het resultaat weerspiegelt een last voor belastingen van $10 miljard, als onderdeel van de schikking van $18,7 miljard met de Amerikaanse overheid en vijf staten om alle claims voor de olieramp met de Deepwater Horizon van vijf jaar geleden te schikken.

Daarnaast reflecteert het verlies een kwartaal waarin de olieprijs weliswaar herstelde van de dieptepunten in januari, maar ruim onder de niveau's van een jaar eerder bleef.

De druk op de olieprijzen creeert een uitdaging voor BP, nu het bedrijf klaar lijkt de ramp met de Deepwater Horizon achter zich te laten. De afgelopen vijf jaar verkocht het concern voor $40 miljard aan onderdelen om voldoende geld te verzamelen voor de schoonmaak in de nasleep van de ramp en om de juridische kosten te dekken.

Het concern kondigde reeds eerder plannen aan om te bezuinigen in reactie op de lagere prijzen. De autonome bestedingen daalden tot $4,5 miljard in het tweede kwartaal, waarmee de investeringen voor het hele jaar naar verwachting onder de $20 miljard zullen uitkomen.

"De marktomstandigheden blijven uitdagend, maar BP heeft snel ingespeeld op de situatie en dat blijven we doen", aldus ceo Bob Dudley. "Ik ben ervan overtuigd dat het positioneren van BP voor een periode van lagere prijzen de juist koers is om te nemen", aldus de bestuurder.

- Door Sarah Kent; Vertaald en bewerkt door Patrick Buis; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31 20 571 52 00; patrick.buis@wsj.com

voda 28 juli 2015 16:39

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Lagere winst voor olieconcern Statoil

Gepubliceerd op 28 jul 2015 om 07:31 | Views: 2.717

STAVANGER (AFN) - Het Noorse staatsolie- en gasconcern Statoil heeft in het tweede kwartaal last gehad van de gedaalde olieprijzen. Het bedrijf zag de aangepaste winst na belastingen met 27 procent dalen ten opzichte van een jaar eerder, tot 7,2 miljard kroon (796 miljoen euro). Dat bleek dinsdag.

De productie van olie en gas ging wel omhoog, ondanks desinvesteringen. De dagelijkse productie klom met 4 procent tot het equivalent van 1,87 miljoen vaten. In juni kondigde Statoil aan veel banen te gaan schrappen in verband met de lage olieprijs. In het eerste kwartaal van dit jaar leed het concern nog een groot verlies, onder meer vanwege grote afschrijvingen op Noord-Amerikaanse schaliebezittingen.

Statoil kondigde dinsdag verder aan vanaf het eerste kwartaal van volgend jaar de resultaten in dollars te zullen presenteren.

voda 28 juli 2015 21:40

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Olieprijs sluit hoger

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De olieprijs is dinsdag hoger gesloten en herstelde daarmee van een recente dip, die maandag extra werd onderstreept door de forse daling op de Chinese aandelenmarkten die flink druk zette op de oliefutures. Bij een gebrek aan groot nieuws, is het volgende richtpunt voor de oliefutures de voorraadrapporten die gaan verschijnen.

De septemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot op de New York Mercantile Exchange 59 dollarcent, of 1,2%, hoger op $47,98.

"De afgelopen dagen gingen we omlaag dus een korte rally is niet verrassend", vindt vermogensbeheerder Tariq Zahir van Tyche Capital Advisors. "Meestal zijn 'bear' marktrallies kort en volatiel."

Marktstrateeg Colin Cieszynski van CMC Markets voegt toe dat hij verwacht dat de oliemarkten de komende dagen wat heen en weer zullen gaan, waarbij er eigenlijk geen groot nieuws wordt verwacht behalve de voorraadrapporten.

Beleggers blijven zich zorgen maken over het overaanbod in de wereld en het effect op de olieprijzen. De afgelopen maanden werd juist een afname van de olievoorraden voorzien maar ze staan nog altijd op een torenhoog niveau. De vraag blijft daarentegen achter en kan nog verder dalen als het zomerseizoen voorbij is.

Volgende richtpunt is daarom de wekelijkse voorraadrapporten, te beginnen met het rapport van het American Petroleum Institute dinsdagavond, gevolgd door de publicatie van de Energy Information Administration woensdagmiddag. Geraadpleegde economen verwachten dat de voorraden zijn afgenomen.

Volgens vermogensbeheerder Zahir is een stijging echter niet uitgesloten. En als de voorraden zijn gestegen "dan kunnen we zakken tot de lage niveaus die we eerder dit jaar zagen."

Door Marleen Groen; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31 20 5715 200; marleen.groen@wsj.com

voda 29 juli 2015 16:56

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Olievoorraden VS dalen onverwacht

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De olievoorraden in de Verenigde Staten zijn vorige week onverwacht gedaald, blijkt woensdagmiddag uit cijfers van de Amerikaanse Energy Information Administration.

De voorraden ruwe olie zijn in de week eindigend op 24 juli met 4,2 miljoen vaten gedaald tot een totaal van 459,7 miljoen. Analisten rekenden op ongewijzigde voorraden.

De benzinevoorraden daalden met 363.000 vaten, waar eveneens een stabiele voorraad werd gezien. Het totaal kwam uit op 215,922 miljoen vaten.

De voorraden stookolie en diesel kwamen uit op een totaal van 144,103 miljoen. De toename van 2,6 miljoen vaten was sterker dan de stijging met 1,3 miljoen vaten die was verwacht.

De capaciteitsbenutting daalde naar 95,1%, van 95,5% een week eerder. Er werd gerekend op een ongewijzigde capaciteitsbenutting.

Door Ellen Proper; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst: +31-20-5715200; ellen.proper@wsj.com

AEX 924,10 -1,03 -0,11% 18:05


Germany40^	21.738,40	-0,75%
BEL 20	4.337,66	+0,00%
Europe50^	5.319,41	-0,69%
US30^	44.342,20	-0,89%
Nasd100^	21.508,40	-1,15%
US500^	6.029,92	-0,88%
Japan225^	38.404,40	-1,47%
Gold spot	2.862,94	+0,24%
EUR/USD	1,0329	-0,53%
WTI	70,95	+0,58%

THEON INTERNAT	+8,28%
AMG Critical ...	+3,34%
Aperam	+2,47%
UMG	+2,27%
AZERION	+1,83%

EBUSCO HOLDING	-4,60%
ALLFUNDS GROUP	-3,49%
TomTom	-2,57%
BESI	-2,41%
IMCD	-2,38%

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