Oil prices go their own ways - Report
Oil benchmarks diverged on Tuesday, with US prices lower on concerns about slowing China growth and the international benchmark trading higher following a sharp drop on Monday.
The US market was closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
On Tuesday, worse-than-expected trade data out of China added to fears of the slowdown in the world’s No. 2 oil consumer. Oil prices dropped to more than six-year lows last month following a slide in the Chinese stock market and continued concerns about oversupply
According to Chinese customs data, China’s crude-oil imports in August fell 13% over the month while exports dropped 33%, underscoring the nation’s slowdown.
Mr Myrto Sokou, analyst at Sucden Financial Research, said that “Bearish Chinese data verified our recent concerns about how weak the Chinese economy has become.”
The US oil benchmark recently fell USD 1.33, or 2.9%, to USD 44.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Meanwhile, robust German exports data provided some support for Brent, the global oil benchmark, Mrs. Sokou added. Exports from Europe’s biggest economy rose 2.4% over the month in July, while imports also grew.
Mr Daniel Ang, analyst at Phillip Futures, said that “In the current oversupply situation, hints of demand improvements would be welcomed with open arms.”
Brent, the global benchmark, rose 50 cents, or 1.1%, to USD 48.13 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Brent prices fell 4% on Monday.
On Monday, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price forecasts for 2015 through 2017 but raised them for 2018 and 2019. The bank sees Brent averaging USD 53 a barrel this year, USD 55 next year and USD 75 in 2017.
The bank said that “The market now seems to appreciate that oil prices should remain low well into 2016 to discourage investment. But estimates of the magnitude of oversupply are grossly overstated, which makes the medium-term risk-reward compelling.”
On Tuesday, Credit Suisse cut its oil-price forecasts through 2020.
The bank said that “Through 2017 we keep prices below USD 65 [a barrel for the US benchmark], the level from which oil production growth from America’s best shale basins would again accelerate to a pace that in short order would tilt the global balance into surplus.”
Source : The Wall Street Journal