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SINGAPORE--The risk of default by one of the larger euro-zone economies that are facing restructuring--including Spain, Italy and Ireland--is pretty low, a senior analyst at Standard & Poor's Ratings Service said Wednesday.
In a press briefing, Moritz Kraemer, analytical manager for S&P's sovereign ratings group covering Europe, Middle East and Africa, also reiterated the firm's view that Greece will probably default again, as reflected by its triple-C rating.
While he said there was a risk of a further deterioration in investor confidence in the euro zone, he noted that the issue wasn't necessarily about the area's overall fundamentals, but about agreeing on how to fix the bloc's problems.
"We do think the risks are on the downside, but the downside is not unlimited," Mr. Kraemer said, describing the prospect of a total disintegration of the euro zone as "quite fanciful and extremely remote."
"We may be closer to the bottom. Whether we are or whether we are at the bottom already will depend on political decisions, will depend on the cohesion of policymaking, not only in individual countries but at the European level," Mr. Kraemer added.
He noted that policy implementation risks often rise when conditions seem to be improving.
S&P has negative outlooks on 15 of the 17 ratings of the currency bloc's sovereigns.
The credit-ratings firm expects the euro zone's economy to contract by 0.8% this year, and to probably be no better than flat in 2013, Dominic Crawley, lead analytical manager for financial services ratings for EMEA, said.
October 18, 2012 04:25 ET (08:25 GMT)
© 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.