Amsterdam: ASM) today provides an update on the expected impact of the recently announced US export restriction as well as an update on the guidance for Q4 2022.
On October 25, 2022, we reported that the export regulations that were issued by the US government on October 7, 2022, had an expected negative impact on 40% or more of our sales to China, based on a conservative scenario (and with equipment sales in China accounting for 16% of our total revenue in the first nine months of 2022). Following extensive clarifications and subsequent internal reviews, we now expect that the recently announced US export restrictions will negatively impact our China sales between 15-25%.
As a result of somewhat higher sales to China, combined with a slightly higher than expected conversion of backlog into shipments in other regions, we now project Q4 2022 sales of €630-660 million, up from €600-630 million previously expected.
On October 25, we also announced that we had reduced our Q3 2022 backlog as a result of the export restrictions which were announced on October 7, 2022. We now expect to rebook part of these tool orders in Q4 2022 and in early 2023, depending on the outcome of discussions with customers. In part driven by these rebookings, and also supported by continued healthy demand in the logic/foundry, and power/analog segments, and including LPE, we expect the book-to-bill in Q4 2022 to be a bit above 1.