Ja, die Cedric zei in december nog geen dividenden te verwachten :)
Degroof petercam ook positief.
Very tight tanker supply leads to high profits. Due to the high demand for oil storage in combination with the Iran embargo, an exceptionally high 12% of the global fleet is currently not available for trading. This could even rise to 20% later this year as oil production continues to exceed demand. This has pushed VLCC rates to well above USD 150,000. This is well above the average of the past 5 years USD 36,000 and will lead to substantial additional cash generation, as every USD 5,000 uplift in rates for both VLCCs and Suezmax adds USD 112m to Euronav’s profit on a full year basis. This translates into high shareholder remuneration, as Euronav has a policy of returning 80% of EPS to shareholders on a quarterly basis.
Healthy fundamentals for the tanker market in the coming years. We expect a dip in the rates when the current inventories are drawn down, but that most likely also lead to a catchup in the scrapping of the many old vessels that have been given a new lease of life thanks to the current demand boom. The inflow of new tankers will be very limited, as the current number of vessels on order (7% of the global fleet) is very low. New additions to this backlog are held back by uncertainty on the impact on new CO2 emission rules. We therefore expect the supply to remain tight in the longer term.
Attractive valuation. Despite the recent very favourable outlook, the shares still trade at a 29% discount to NAV. We expect that discount to disappear once the rate recovery has proven to be sustainable. Our current target price of EUR 14 is based on the current NAV. Note that valuation can become much higher if the scarcity of tanker starts to push up their value. NAV calculations based on asset values in favourable markets indicate a value of EUR 19 per share.