MisterBlues schreef op 28 november 2020 12:16:
Moderna's groei verwachtingI am projecting that Moderna will sell 800 million doses in 2021 and 1 billion doses in 2022 at an average cost of $20 per dose. The revenue for 2021 is $16 billion and for 2022 is $20 billion. Assuming an operating margin of 20%, Moderna's operating profits would be $3.2 billion for 2021 and $4 billion for $2022. Considering an effective tax rate of about 17% and 21% respectively in 2021 and 2022 and a share count of 389 million and 400 million over the two years, the EPS contribution of the Covid-19 vaccine would stand at $6.80 in 2021 and $7.90 in 2022. Based on these numbers ONLY from mRNA-1273 and not even considering the value of the rest of the pipeline:
At 30 times earnings, that puts MRNA at a projected share price of $205 for 2021 and $237 for 2022.
At 25 times earnings, that puts MRNA at a projected share price of $171 for 2021 and $198 for 2022.
At 20 times earnings, that puts MRNA at a projected share price of $137 for 2021 and $158 for 2022.
Again, realize that these projections are NOT accounting for the value of the rest of Moderna's pipeline. Before Covid, Moderna traded around $20 a share, so you could easily add that amount and several times more due to mRNA technology being proven and providing more value to the whole pipeline.
Maar...
If there were no other players than yes. But first half of 2021, we have at least 6 players getting through phase 3 with less side effects. So all revenues projected for 2022 is essentially not valid. Also once the vaccine get distributed, it’s going to be a bumpy road. It’s going to be endless media coverage on the side effects of the vaccine. Just ask yourself if you will take it. Logically no stock trader following the run since June is going to take the MRNA vaccine. It’s a win from a trading perspective but it’s at the top of the trading spectrum already.
Market just cares about hyper growth now.