hosternokke schreef op 29 januari 2021 02:51:
UK trial:
Interim analysis was based on 62 events with 6 on treatment arm, 56 on placebo arm. 50% of cases attributed to the UK strain.
89.3% efficacy (95% CI: 75.2 – 95.4)
95.6% efficacy for original strain, 85.6% for UK strain.
Safety: 1 severe on placebo arm.
The final analysis at more than 100 events will likely be in a few weeks.
These results put the Novavax vaccine at the same level as the mRNA vaccines with less safety issues. The vaccine is also manufactured and stored easier than the mRNA vaccine. So, this will now be the go-to vaccine.
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SA trial:
44 events, 15 on treatment arms, 29 on placebo arms. Preliminary testing shows 92.6% of cases attributed to the SA strain.
60% efficacy (95% CI: 19.9 - 80.1) for HIV negatives
49.4% efficacy (95% CI: 6.1 - 72.8) for HIV positives
Safety: 1 severe case on placebo arm.
The SA trial enrolled only 4400 patients and the number of events was small. Note that the left ends of the above Confidence Intervals (CI) were far below 30%. So, the efficacy as estimated may not be accurate. Even so, 60% is quite good, at the same level as most flu vaccines. This will need to be confirmed with a larger trial.
A bad news from the SA data is that prior infection with the classical virus may not provide any protection against the SA strain. This strain is now circulating in the US with two cases just found in South Carolina. Mask and social distance will continue to be needed.
Novavax has initiated development of new vaccines against the emerging strains. Testing may start in 2Q.