- blijft alleen maar negatief nieuws uit deze sector komen.
Solar sector faces shake-out on supply glut
First Solar shares hit four-year low; analyst sees mergers ahead
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SHARE: MORE Email Print Comment 3 By Steve Gelsi, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Alarmed by soaring oil prices in the 1970s, President Jimmy Carter put a solar-powered hot-water heater on the roof of the White House.
President Ronald Reagan took it down as oil prices fell.
FSLR 51.56, -4.35, -7.78%
SPWRA 9.32, -0.10, -1.06%
SPX 1,208.31, -17.07, -1.39%
Solar power shares
25%0%-25%-50%-75%
JASO
First Solar, SunPower shares have dropped sharply as the industry faces a glut in supply.
The nation’s love-them-and-leave-them attitude toward solar power appears to be repeating itself, at least on Wall Street, as shares of solar panel manufacturers continue their fall from heights achieved in 2008.
Whether it’s the Solyndra funding scandal, a glut of solar panels, competition from China, or less money for photovoltaics from big European customers, 2011 will go down as a rough one for the industry.
“We’re in a solar shake-out phase right now and it’s going to gain full force in 2012,” said Angelo Zino, a solar power analyst for Standard & Poor’s Equity Research. “Our belief is that China-based manufacturers will pretty much do anything in their power to take market share, even if it means sacrificing near-term profit, to drive competitors out of the industry.”
First Solar
Solar panel construction.
The tough economics facing solar manufacturers include a 70% jump in production capacity this year against an expected increase in demand of only 20%, according to S&P estimates.
With that kind of lopsided market, it’s no wonder Evergreen Solar and SpectraWatt filed for bankruptcy. Then there was the high-profile case of Solyndra, the solar panel maker landed a $535 million federal loan guarantee shortly before it, too, went bankrupt. See: Solyndra execs stay silent in visit to Capitol Hill
Against this backdrop, shares of solar panel makers have been hammered, including U.S-based First Solar FSLR -7.78% , which is the only pure-play solar panel manufacturer in the S&P 500.
Exploring fresh lows
Last week, First Solar shares fell to $52.32, the stock’s lowest level since 2007. The stock hit an all-time high of $284.50 a share just ahead of the financial crisis of 2008 and then headed south. So far this year the stock has lost 57% of its value.
First Solar spokesman Alan Bernheimer declined to provide an update on the company’s financial outlook beyond the update delivered in August.
“We are in our quiet period prior to our Q3 earnings announcement,” he said in an email to MarketWatch.
Piling more pressure on the company, Ticonderoga Securities analyst Paul Leming downgraded First Solar to a sell on Oct. 12 and set a 12-month price target of $40 a share, well below its recent lows.
Leming cited a recent statement from Germany’s Phoenix Solar DE:PS4 -8.11% that an anticipated year-end rally in German solar panel installations does not appear to be materializing. The comment amounts to “devastating news for the photovoltaic industry in general and First Solar in particular,” Leming said.
He concluded that falling prices could present a money-losing proposition to First Solar’s panel manufacturing business next year.