Copy-paste van het Vertex forum:
papaalien2000 • Jun 29, 2014 6:19 AM
competition
VRTX is far ahead of competition, but midterm Galapagos/AbbVie may be a strong competitor, has promising preclinical candidates, Galapagos (GLPG) has an informative presentation on its website, worth reading
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tenyearinvestment • Jun 30, 2014 6:13 AM
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An underappreciated asset is the nature of the CF market and Vertex's relationship in it.
There are somewhere in the vicinity of (only) 70,000 CF patients worldwide and (probably) less than 10,000 treating physicians. While these may sound like large numbers, compared to other diagnoses they are relatively small. This "smallness" allows for great relative depth in the relationship between Vertex and individual patients and doctors -- depth of information about each other and depth of two way communication. Whatever clinical trials (beginning with Phase 1 but certainly expanding with Phases 2 and 3) that competitors undertake should be very "visible" to Vertex. The only real question is the degree to which the company is aware of this "asset" and systematically exploits it to expand their knowledge base. Furthermore, we should not disregard the limitations competitors face in recruiting patients for their trials given the "smallness" and Vertex's position as the "clinical trial leader of choice."
Teny Less
thirdmeinvestor • Jun 29, 2014 9:34 AM
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I liked the phase 2 result of their JAK1 inhibitor for RA. They still have not started phase 3. I would think that even if their potentiator is effective and safe it won't be out for at least 3 years and their corrector for 6 years. Their potentiator has to compete against the VX-661+Kalydeco combo for 551/508 heterozygotes. Less
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papaalien2000 • Jun 29, 2014 11:06 AM
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I agree on your timeline, but I just hope that VRTX has learned the HCV lesson and will proactively look to acquire potential CF competitors.
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thirdmeinvestor • Jun 29, 2014 1:35 PM
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In response to analyst's query into future drug research in the Q1 E CC, Peter Mueller mentioned that he is looking into gene therapy. He didn't specify what disease the gene therapy targeted at the time, but I suspected it was CF therapy by the context. A UK consortium is running a clinical trial since 2012. Bluemoon appeared to have succeeded in treating a rare disease using lentivirus recently, and Bayer also has committed to work with Dimension Th. for hemophilia A. I am certain that Vertex is intensely watching the development. As you suggested, Vertex learned an important lesson from Incivek debacle. Less
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thirdmeinvestor • Jun 29, 2014 1:40 PM
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I think it was Q2 earnings call, not Q1, when Mueller mention gene therapy. In a year or two Vertex will have money to partner with, or acquire a promising CF drug companies.
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papaalien2000 • Jun 30, 2014 5:47 AM
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at this point in time gene therapy to treat cf is "blue sky research", various allele involved, a lot of basic problems have to be solved, will take +10 years to have a product in clinical testing.
The good news for cf patients is that the combo strategy - corrector plus potentiator - pioneered by Vertex really works. Kaleydeco und Lumacaftor are just the beginning, as Galapagos notes "there is room for improvement". Actually, I had hoped for much better data for the 809 combo. But already 661 will show better results and the preclinical data from Galapagos compounds indicate even better improvements. Vertex ought to look very carefully at these data and not rely on new approaches but to protect its cf franchise by best-in-class combos.